AUGUST 2, 2026 – The 2nd Quarter GDP came in at +1.5%. Below market expectations. Excluding some unusual items, it was closer to +4.0%. But, I don’t like to exclude unusual items because every quarter has them:) Early readings for the 3rd Quarter are around +5%. I can’t imagine a reading that high. Albeit, it sounds like some of the items that caused the 2nd Quarter reading to be low might be made up to the upside in the 3rd Quarter. Regardless, the most important thing the market is telling us is there is ZERO chance of a recession thru at least the 1st Quarter of 2027. Those forecasting a recession since around 2022 maintain their perfect record:)
Another stat that caught my eye was unemployment claims at 187,000. This is the LOWEST since 1969. And we have way more workers almost 60 years later. All of the crying about AI taking jobs appears to be propaganda as usual.
As for people saying ‘that must be AI,’ I just don’t get it. We started ‘Photoshopping’ pictures and videos almost 30 years ago. To now look at a picture or video and think it might be altered??? Where have people been for the past 30 years of fake pics and videos???
I will leave now before I rant rant rant lol
Shalom,
The Mann