Category Archives: Mann Overboard

After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.

Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl

NCUA RAISED DE MINIMUS TO $1,000,000

July 19, 2019 – See the link below for more info about the NCUA’s decision to one up banks and raise the commercial appraisal threshold from $250,000 to $1,000,000.  Banks recently had their threshold for this loan category raised to $500,000.  The obvious question is will banks be able to get their regulators to follow what the NCUA did….we shall see.

For those who are jumping on my Evaluation bandwagon after 25+ years, this only means more work for you.  If your State does not allow licensed/certified appraisers to perform non-USPAP Evaluations, you need to get them moving on this.  Can you hear me North and South Carolina:)

The Mann

https://www.ncua.gov/newsroom/press-release/2019/appraisal-rule-will-help-boost-economic-activity-job-creation-communities

IMHO, THE BEST SOURCE OF HOUSING DATA IS THE AEI

June 20, 2019 – I have watched the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) develop their housing research over the past decade.  Major organizations provide them with all of the data that is out there and AEI simply analyzes and reports what it says.  Unlike NAR, no bias in the research and reporting.  The AEI is 100% transparent in how they arrive at their indices and use the data.  I encourage everyone to start using this as their definitive source for information on the housing market.  The following is directly from AEI (as the links might not work in me cutting and pasting their announcement, you can go to their website at www.AEI.org):

AEI Housing Center analyzes housing markets in the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

Housing markets are inherently local, making them notoriously difficult to analyze due to the lack of reliable data at the local level. The second quarterly release of a new dataset from the AEI Housing Center aims to fill this void by analyzing housing market data for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, as well as for the nation as a whole. The current dataset looks at housing data through 2019:Q1.

AEI Housing Center Codirector Edward Pinto and Senior Research Analyst Tobias Peter explain “Our goal is to provide the public, media, and decision makers with accurate and reliable metrics to assess the state of their local housing market in near-real time. A well-informed market place and its participants will aid in promoting sustainable homeownership.

Among the national Housing Market Indicators for 2019:Q1:
  • Rate of house price appreciation (HPA): 3.8%
  • Mortgage risk index: 12.1%
  • Share of buyers of entry level homes: 57%
  • Average sale price for entry level homes: $194,000
  • Share of new construction sales (compared to all home sales): 10.5%
The Housing Market Indicators for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, along with all associated data, are available on an interactive website here.

This was made possible by AEI’s new merged property and mortgage financing national dataset, which consists of nearly 35 million home purchase transactions.

The data are updated quarterly. The next release of Housing Market Indicators, which will analyze housing data for 2019:Q2, is scheduled for September.
Edward J. Pinto
Codirector, AEI Housing Center
240-423-2848

New AEI dataset: Housing Market Indicators in the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

April 9, 2019 – In my opinion, the AEI provides the most neutral analysis of the housing market.  They likely have the most data.  Unlike NAR, there is no bias.  Below is their major announcement today.  I hope you find their reports useful.

Just to be transparent – I am not a member of AEI (not even sure if such exists).  I do not contribute to them.  I have attended some of their meetings on housing.

================================================

New AEI dataset analyzes the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

Housing markets are inherently local, making them notoriously difficult to analyze due to the lack of reliable data at the local level. A new dataset from the AEI Housing Center, the first in a series of quarterly reports, aims to fill this void by analyzing housing market data for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, as well as for the nation as a whole. The current dataset looks at housing data from 2018:Q4.

AEI Housing Center Codirector Edward Pinto and Senior Research Analyst Tobias Peter explain “Our goal is to provide the public, media, and decision makers with accurate and reliable metrics to assess the state of their local housing market in near-real time. A well-informed market place and its participants will aid in promoting sustainable homeownership.”

Among the national Housing Market Indicators for 2018:Q4:

  • Rate of house price appreciation (HPA): 3.9%
  • Mortgage risk index: 11.1%
  • Share of buyers of entry level homes: 55%
  • Average sale price for entry level homes: $197,000
  • Share of new construction sales (compared to all home sales): 11.2%

The Housing Market Indicators for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, along with all associated data, are available on an interactive website here.

This was made possible by AEI’s new merged property and mortgage financing national dataset, which consists of over 34 million home purchase transactions.

The data are updated quarterly. The next release of Housing Market Indicators, which will analyze housing data for 2019:Q1, is scheduled for May.

Codirector, AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance
240-423-2848

A NICE WIN FOR ZILLOW

February 12, 2019 – The following article details a major court victory for Zillow.  This is great to see.  Zillow is needed as an alternative to NAR.

Zillow has been right on target for the last 3 houses that I have owned.  It has been nice to see the monthly change and ebb and flow of value.  Obviously others have had not seen the accuracy that I have encountered.  Of course, the same occurs with actual real estate appraisals, too:)

https://cookcountyrecord.com/stories/511770943-appeals-panel-zillow-s-zestimate-online-home-value-estimations-just-opinion-not-illegal-appraisals

NEW INTERAGENCY GUIDANCE ISSUED

October 16, 2018 – The Federal Agencies have issued an updated guidance titled ‘Frequently Asked Questions on the Appraisal Regulations and the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines.’  This rescinds a similar document issued in 2005.

You can download this 14-page document at the following URL:

https://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2018/fil18062a.pdf

Please pass this document along to your in-house appraisal staff and other bankers.

Reportedly, there are no significant changes.  Simply, an update of a 13-year old document with some needed clarification.

LEASE-UP FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED BUILDINGS – A DEBATE YET TO BE SETTLED

August 9, 2018 – Over my 30+ year career, this question has come up every few years.  When performing the Income Approach for a vacant or owner-occupied building (same thing), should there be discounting for the time and cost to lease it up?

My short answer is – Yes.  However, I would say 99% of appraisers do not make such a deduction.  Why not?

A few notes before I summarize a great response from an appraiser who does make the deduction.

First, America’s definition of Market Value assumes a sale occurs.  Therefore, an owner-occupied property is vacant when it sells.  That occupant moves out so either a new owner occupant can move in or third-party tenants can move in.  I have long argued that EVERY house/condo in America sells vacant – regardless if the owner occupies it right up to closing or it is physically vacant beforehand.  Of course, rental properties are the exception.

Second, the Income Approach assumes an investor owns the property and will lease it up to stabilization to third-party tenants.  The Income Approach does not assume owner occupancy!

Therefore, a vacant or owner-occupied property has to be leased up to obtain stabilization that is assumed in the direct cap method of the Income Approach.  Lease-up is not free and instantaneous that often.  Below is the summarized response that was shared with me.

As always, I welcome your thoughts.  Unlike our cultural and political world, differing opinions are welcome and will not be called ‘tone deaf’ or racist or some kind of phobic and so on:)  If I get enough comments, I will do a follow up post.

(Oh, let me add that the Sales Comparison Approach will depend on what sales are used.  If the comps were 100% vacant and/or owner-occupied, then the SCA already reflects such discounting for lease-up.  If the comps were partially or 100% leased, then….hmmmmm….)

(Second oh….all of this is needed to determine one of the 3 highest & best use conclusion items – type of occupancy.  Sometimes it is Owner Occupancy and other times it is Third-Party Tenants via an Investor owning the property.)

OK, finally to the Anonymous Appraiser Reply:

  1.  For the purpose of our analysis, owner-occupied space is presumed vacant and subject to deductions to reach stabilized occupancy in the “As Is” Market Value.
  2. FIRREA requires appraisers to “Analyze and report appropriate deductions and discounts for proposed construction or renovation, partially leased buildings, non-market lease terms, and tract developments with unsold units.”
  3. The present value of all costs necessary to achieve stabilized occupancy (including rent loss, leasing commissions, concessions, tenant improvements, rehabilitation costs, and/or profit loss) incurred during the lease-up period must be considered in developing the “As Is” Market Value conclusion.
  4. ((In this particular appraisal, )) The sales utilized in the Sales Comparison Approach were all vacant or owner-occupied; therefore, no lease-up adjustment was applied to the Sales Comparison Approach.

I agree with this logic.  Even for non-FIRREA appraisals.

What does the market do?  Well, that is answered in the Sales Comparison Approach as prices for vacant and/or owner-occupied properties reflect how an owner values the property or an investor values it knowing s/he has to find a tenant(s).

Thoughts….

The Mann

REVISIONS MADE TO TITLE XI OF FIRREA

April 2, 2018 (UPDATED) – The Agencies have finally released ‘The Final Rule’ for updates to FIRREA.  A copy of the document can be found at:

https://www.fdic.gov/news/board/2018/2018-03-20-notice-sum-c-fr.pdf

The main change is increasing the de minimus level for commercial real estate transactions from $250,000 to $500,000.  Although this might seem significant, it is basically an adjustment for inflation from the last change to $250,000 in 1994.

Also, the definition of ‘commercial real estate transaction’ has been updated.

The changes are not in effect until published in the Federal Register,  I will update this post when this occurs.  UPDATE – This document is now live as it is in the Federal Register.

Financial institutions should update their appraisal/evaluation policies accordingly.

The Mann

 

R.I.P. Sox – September 28, 2002 to November 26, 2017

My buddy Sox led a good, long life.  We were lucky enough to adopt him when he was 8 years old.  I never had a dog live past 12 years….15+ years was quite amazing.

Sadly for the first time in 25+ years we do not own a bearded collie.  What a special breed of dog.

It is days like today….events like this…..that make you wonder why the heck worry about libtards….why fight the battles for what you think is right.  Just forget everything else and only concentrate on your family, friends, and pets.

I will see you Sox across that Rainbow Bridge in Heaven and we will enjoy eternity together along with my other dogs….love you buddy:)

20151031_120156

 

CORRECTING THE APPRAISAL FOUNDATION’S FAKE NEWS

May 18, 2017 – Today The Appraisal Foundation (TAF) gave a webinar on using Restricted Appraisal Reports (RARs) to meet the need of Evaluations.  As TAF is no longer an unbiased entity, I will correct the Fake News they put out today.  My perspective is based on 23+ years of writing true Evaluations (i.e. non-USPAP) and 23 years of ordering RARs.  I have seen both type of reports all across the nation.  So, here goes…

  1.  FAKE NEWS – Evaluation requirements are more than Appraisal requirements.  Misleading.  TAF listed the 5 appraisal requirements listed in FIRREA.  Then compared that to the 14 bullet points for Evaluations listed in the IAEG.  Of course, one of the 5 appraisal requirements is mandatory compliance with USPAP – which has 12 bullet points in SR 2-2.  A few of those requirements require multiple items.  FACT – As I will explain below, A RESTRICTED APPRAISAL REPORT MUST ALWAYS CONTAIN MORE INFO THAN AN EVALUATION!

2.  Remember USPAP has NOTHING to do with Evaluations.  Only the December 2010 IAEG applies to Evaluations.  Thus, this webinar and the next webinar about writing an USPAP Evaluation (an oxymoron – USPAP has an A for Appraisal in it, not an E for Evaluation! Evaluation requirements are in the IAEG) are not relevant.

3.  IMPORTANT EXPLANATION FROM GEORGE MANN:

A.  Evaluations CAN omit many items that are required and/or reported in the typical appraisal report (I will list many below).

B.  RARs CANNOT omit any items required by the IAEG for Evaluations.

C.  Therefore, RARs MUST ALWAYS CONTAIN MORE INFO THAN AN EVALUATION!

4.  FAKE NEWS – It was insinuated in the webinar that a RAR could have less content than an Evaluation.  A single statement near the end said RARs do need to be beefed up and that will be explained in the next webinar.  That should have been emphasized more.  The sample RAR presented would NOT meet Evaluation requirements.  The IAEG says ‘sufficient information’ is needed.  Simply stating a value is not sufficient information.

5.  Here is a list of items that are typically included in a RAR, but are NOT included in an Evaluation:

2 very important items are Evaluations do NOT require the SR 2-3 Certification, nor do you have a work file requirement.  Those are yuge and bigly!

Reporting-wise Evaluations typically will NOT contain an executive summary, limiting conditions, extraordinary assumptions and hypothetical conditions, intended use, intended user, zoning, tax assessment info, flood zone, detailed property descriptions, prominent use restriction statement (RARs), or listing and sales history.  That is not to say every RAR needs all of those items (many are mandatory though) nor that every Evaluation will omit all of those items (most of them will be omitted though).  Therefore, it is FAKE NEWS for anyone to ever say or insinuate that a RAR contains less or equal detail to an Evaluation.

Remember, Mann’s Law of Evaluations – A RESTRICTED APPRAISAL REPORT MUST ALWAYS CONTAIN MORE INFO THAN AN EVALUATION!

Lastly, not that TAF suggested a bank would use an Evaluation on a $34 Million property, the IAEG makes it clear that as the loan and/or property become more complex, banks need to move towards appraisals.  Nearly all Evaluations will be on properties valued around $1 Million or less.  Some exceptions will exist, especially for the largest banks.  But, not too often will a bank use an Evaluation on properties over $1 Million.  Yes, technically, they make their decision based on loan amount.  But, us appraisers deal with property value.

TAF made a great point that an RAR can be done on any size property.  The amount of work doesn’t change between a RAR and an Appraisal Report.  But, the amount of reporting is less (in a RAR) and that saves a little bit of writing time.

Agencies Finalize EGRPRA Review with Joint Report to Congress

March 22, 2017 – After about 2 years, FFIEC has finally published their report that includes dealing with appraisal issues.

The link is below.   Pages 28 to 40 deal with appraisal issues.  Albeit, appraisals are discussed a bit in a few other places.  As noted, these are NOT final and official changes.

In general, if the proposal does not change, this is a big win for appraisers.  The small increase in a single threshold will not have a major affect on appraisal volume.

https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2017/nr-ia-2017-33a.pdf?utm_campaign=ABA-Newsbytes-032217-HTML&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua