SEPTEMBER 28, 2026
INTEREST RATES – The market currently places the Fed Funds Rate at 4.2%-4.4%. The Fed just raised the actual Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.0%. Another 25bp increase is needed. But, that can change before their next meeting. The chance of a decrease is essentially zero.
HOUSING – It is good to see the average 30-year mortgage rate above 7% again. This is a solid, and affordable, market level. Below this is artificially low. Spec new housing construction continues to reach all-time high levels. This is occurring with a huge amount of unsold new homes. The average price of a new home has declined 8.8% in a year. And that does not include the ever-increasing freebies that builders are throwing at potential buyers (and hiding from sales contracts and recorded prices!). (Sarcasm intended now…) For a country with a housing shortage, it is amazing that we can have a near-record number of unsold new homes and apartment vacancy rates much higher than they were 3-4 years ago. The reality has been for 25 years that we have WAY WAY WAY too much housing in this country.
ECONOMY – The 3rd Quarter is ending and the market says zero chance of a recession through the 1st Quarter of 2027. GDP growth for each of the last two quarters is expected to be around +2.0%-2.5%. The Atlanta Fed’s indicator is +5.0% for the 3rd Quarter. But, it has been way off many times. The point is people have been screaming that a recession has been upon us since 2022…..5 years of being 100% wrong.
SENATE ELECTION – Hopefully, we will get a lot more data in October. Right now, it is looking like 52 Dems to 46 GOP with 2 too close to call. The trend all along has been a definite Dem win in the Senate. When states like Ohio and Texas have favored the Dem solidly all along and my state of SC has the race down to the GOP candidate (Graham) being favored by less than 5 points, it looks like a sold Dem performance in the Senate. SC should have Graham easily favored by 10-15 points. As I mentioned before, there just isn’t enough data to make a forecast for the House. What I originally posted, still holds (Dems taking control by less than 10 seats…sort of a flip of what the GOP has now). This is all a cursory look at the data. I no longer spend time really digging deep into it.
That is all that is my mind for now. Absorbing the news that OpenAI won’t release ChatGPT 6.1 – because they can no longer control it. Frustrating. Just give it to me to have some fun lol
Shalom,
The Mann