DECEMBER 4, 2025 – The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Unless rates drop 10+ bp in a week, I don’t see a rate cut occurring. I believe President Trump puts his new Fed Chair in place in January. For the first in history, we may have the Fed change rates against what the market is telling it to do. We shall see. And if it occurs, we will see how the markets react. In the interim, Happy Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann