MARCH 16TH (EVENING) – I am curious if anyone has seen anybody else predict that a 3000 point drop in one day would occur asap. Please email if you saw someone do such, as I like to keep up with such people who know how to forecast well.
For those new to my blog, there are two additional posts on this topic that will catch you up on how things have been playing out.
Please feel free to pass my website along to others. Although the short-term future is bleak, having a clue of what is coming helps alleviate the fear of the unknown.
Like The Great Depression II, this downturn has been easy to forecast. Hopefully, it will stay that way.
I mentioned that 14,600 to 18,400 is looking like a likely range for a bottom of some type – not sure, yet, if it will be an interim or final bottom. Interim seems more likely. With more information every day the market plays out, this range can be narrowed.
After today, I would narrow this range to 15,400 to 18,400. Also, there is a low-percentage chance of an interim bottom occurring in the 17,800-18,200 range. If a bottom occurs in that range, the rally will reveal if that is an interim bottom or just a temporary stop on the way down to an interim bottom. The odds are higher the market will decline thru 18,000 towards an interim bottom a few thousand points lower.
I would not be surprised if we get down to 18,000 tomorrow. The markets are moving that fast. By the way, the volatility of the last 3 days last occurred in 1929.
The decline in Oil is just ahead of the stock market. I haven’t tried to come up with specific targets in this market. But, I am thinking an interim bottom is forming in the $25-$30 range. This should be followed by a rally to $40 and then a decline back to a major low in the $25-$30 range again.
I still think it is too early to buy stocks. Especially when we are still in the midst of a Wave 3 (various degrees for those who follow wave theory) and Wave 3 is the most severe wave.
A side note…for the first time in history T-Bill rates briefly went negative today. Simply amazing the number of people worldwide willing to pay sovereign governments interest.
More of a note to myself, if Gold is truly in the last wave of a major Bear Market, then the target range is $829 to $928 an ounce.
Stay safe. Remember President Kennedy’s great quote:
Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.
All 320 million of us are in this virus fight together. Do your part and this will be over sooner than later.
Godspeed.
The Mann