November 7, 2018 – For the most part, the election is over. A few Senate seats and about a dozen House seats have yet to be called.
Lesson learned from all of this is that it is darn hard to predict individual House races. Not really a surprise. The lack of data makes it very difficult to forecast anything. But, that is the same regardless of what you are trying to forecast.
In the end, I ended up about 50/50 on the 32 or so toss-up races. Obviously, inadequate for a reasonably accurate forecast. As of this writing, the Dems are at 223 seats. They are likely to end up near 230.
Since I live to forecast, I will surely try this again next time. But, not so sure I am any better than flipping a coin:)
Senate projections were a lot easier. And that is expected, due to the huge amount of data available. I think Senate races and the Presidential race are fairly easy to forecast – as long as you don’t rely on the inflated Left polls:) They were horribly wrong again.
As of this writing, the GOP is at 52 seats and should end up with 53 for sure and might hit 54. My forecast was on target.
I did not try to forecast the Governor races. But, I think that is doable based on the large amount of data available. I guess I will going forward.
Of course, I need to work on making money off these projections, eh:)
Onward we go….surprised (sarcasm intended) there weren’t protests in many cities about the House results:) Obviously, Russia interfered in this election and helped divide our government. No doubt my ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ and ‘Not My Speaker of the House!” shirts are going to sell well:) And yes, you will see how civil the Right is versus the uncivil Left…..that is now an obvious fact.
Lastly, the scum reporter (used loosely) Acosta should be charged with assault for brushing that White House lady staffer’s arm away today. Imagine if a Republican did that to a lady!
Remember, we do NOT have a free press any more. They are not to be protected by the Constitution. This is simply an arm of the Democratic Party. They are the Enemy of the People because they no longer protect us by providing truthful information. The 1st Amendment is there for a free press to provide the people with truthful information. It is not there to protect a propaganda industry that publishes lies and biased opinions. I simply want the facts (verified by several sources like they used to do) and I will take it from there. This applies to ALL news companies – Left and Right. Please bring back Walter Cronkite:)
I suppose in a week or so we will start to hear about 2020 campaigning….
October 31, 2018 – I have never tried to forecast the results for Senate or House of Representative elections. Too many races to deal with. But, with more and more data available, it is becoming easier to do.
Easy, that is, to forecast. Still incredibly difficult to be accurate!
LAST UPDATE – 2PM EASTERN ELECTION DAY – My final count is a range of 211 to 222 for the Dems, with 216-217 being my ‘point’ forecast. Just so darn close on a few contests. so I am cheating slightly and saying 216-217. If I was asked which side of the range I would lean more towards, it would be the 211-212 area. I do think we will not know who wins the House after tonight. A few recounts might delay having an actual winner for a few weeks.
Unlike the ‘great forecasters’ out there (like 538 and whoever gets screen time) who are hedging with a wide range of 215 to 260, I think it can be narrowed to a 10 seat range. These forecasters remind me of the old saying about what the market will do tomorrow – if it doesn’t go up, it might do down:) Get some guts guys. Speaking of which, we need some women to step up and run these poll firms and forecasts.
As an aside, I wonder if Repubs lose the House if there will be shirts out saying ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ Heh heh. I doubt it. Unlike the Left, the Right can accept losing with class and style and civility.
Lastly, the site I voted at said they were up 500% in voting from the last mid-term election. One thing can be said for Trump, he has got us Americans off our lazy asses and out to vote!!! We have taken this right for granted for too long. Good to see everyone having their say – peacefully, at the ballot box.
((Back to the original post…)) I might tweak these figures before Election Day, but for now my predictions are as follows:
The Democrats should end up with 209 to 220 seats. With 218 being the winning number, the Dems do have a chance to take control of the House. Maybe not as much chance as the Fake News Media wants you to believe – but, that is what the FNM has been doing for decades….inflating poll numbers for the Left so as to deflate the hopes of the Right. Thankfully, the public now sees that and puts no faith in polls.
As everyone likes a single figure prediction, I will go with 215 seats for the Dems. That leaves the House in GOP control.
Of course, if my prediction comes true, liberal heads will explode the day after Election and Russia will be to blame, et al:) Maybe Rosie and Streisand and others will finally move to Canada, also!
If the Dems do get 218+, we simply place everything on hold until 2020. Nothing will get done in DC. Impeachment won’t work – just like it didn’t with Clinton. Trump will continue to fill Federal judge seats as only the Senate is needed to approve those nominations. Else, DC will be the normal mess we are used to.
Regardless of your stance, please do go out and vote. That is the one thing we personally control. Take advantage of it.
And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!