AUGUST 18, 2024 – In two short weeks, a lot has changed. Almost all of it in favor of Harris/Walz and the Democrats.
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Now the closest state. A true dead heat. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s two weeks ago.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by about one full point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by over one point and that is trending upward. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Trump still up by about 2 points. But, getting interesting. Harris 251 Trump 225
NC – Getting into play. Trump still up by over a point. Harris 251 Trump 241.
GA – Trump ahead by a point. For now, we will give it to him.
But, this might change soon. Harris 251 Trump 257.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. This remains the sole key state at this point. But, per above, a few other states might become critical soon. Like Arizona, this one is even. A total toss-up.
Another winning scenario is arising for Harris. If she wins Arizona and flips Georgia, she will be at 278 and not need to win Pennsylvania. Just a bit early to put this up there and remove Pennsylvania as the do-or-die state for both candidates.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
I will update this as things become noteworthy. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann