AUGUST 12, 2020 – For those who have read my newsletters or blogs or whatever over the years, you may recall me saying that Gold puts in a top when it starts going up and down $50 or $75 or more a day. Commodity tops are like stock market bottoms – spikes. Gold was down $200 yesterday and has rebounded $70 today. Silver dropped 20% in a day. These are indications a top is occurring. The markets always like to surprise us. But, over the past 50 years, this has been the pattern for Gold.
Recent polls show Biden ahead by about 4 to 6 points in the battleground states. We can assume 1 to maybe 2 points are overstated because of the significant number of conservatives that refuse to participate in these polls (e.g. moi). This advantage can go away in a few days. In 2016, Trump basically pulled it out in the last 3 or 4 days as voters faced the reality of voting. And it is apparent the October ‘Surprise’ will be approval of a vaccine. I hope no one is surprised when that announcement occurs! It is already a known fact as the 30,000 volunteers in Savannah got their shots in July and October is when the results come in. All of the above aside, right now Biden is the clear favorite to win per the polls. Also, these polls do not reflect the results of the DNC telling Sleepy Joe yesterday that he has chosen Kamala Harris to be his VP. I am not sure that will have much affect as it has been known for a few weeks she was one of the two finalists and her being in California is overkill as Biden will win that state by about 30 points.
I see that over 80,000 businesses have closed for good. This will increase significantly as we go through the remainder of the year in an essential shutdown of our economy. This is a significant cleansing of businesses that were not adequately capitalized. I would hope Americans would learn two lessons from this crisis, but i doubt they will:
- Never, ever, ever go into debt. I realized early in my career that income producing real estate that had no mortgage could survive most downturns. It was the debt that cost property owners to lose their investments. The same goes for people. Almost anyone can get by just paying their rent, utilities, cell phone bill, etc. My step-daughter figured that out years ago. She just sold her farm and bought a house nearby for all cash. If she loses her job, she can get by working a minimum wage job. I am so proud of her accomplishing this during a pandemic of all things. At least one person listened to me lol
- This isn’t my advice. We all have been told to have 3-6 months of expenses in savings. Most of the 80,000 businesses that have closed would likely still be surviving if they had followed this advice. Granted this crisis will go past 6 months for certain industries, so even this advice would not have helped everyone. But, it would not have hurt anyone! And, obviously, John Q. Public would always be in much better shape if they had 6 months of expenses in the bank.
Sadly, people and companies will not follow the above. For one, it is very difficult in an ever slowing world economy. Also, our economy is not designed for long-term survival….just for short-term excess profits. A hundred years from now people will be studying how the excesses of the past 100 years occurred and will swear to not repeat our mistakes. It will probably work until one century the third peak generation of all time will be doing exactly what we have done (The Roman Empire and Baby Boomers are the two all-time peaks if you were wondering).
Re my life experiment….a week ago I eliminated all social media from my life. I deleted all news apps from my phone and laptop and no longer watch or read any news. My family will tell me a news item now and then:( So far it is amazing. I pick up my cell phone and check email and then I look it and have nothing more to need it for…except to check the weather. I used to spend hours on the thing…now I barely touch it. It is so refreshing to not think about anything controversial. After 55 years of fighting, this brain is ready to rest:) I know how I will vote the rest of my life. So, it dawned on me I don’t need to debate issues (fruitless nowadays anyway) and I don’t need to know what is going on outside my own bubble. I will keep up with real estate and markets. I have always made my decisions based on data and not news anyway. Day 7 and counting….I might post down the road how this is working out.
A total side note….if you like country music, go to YouTube and check out Morgan Wade. She hasn’t made it big, yet. I saw her in concert before The ‘Vid shut things down. She is all I listen to now. ‘The Night’ is her signature song. For those who can relate to the subject of the song, it is a strong message. Maybe one decade the world will know how to better help those with this illness. But, it won’t occur in time in my lifetime.
Everyone take care….please don’t send me news stories lol