AUGUST 4 , 2024 – We are about 3 months from Election Day. Here is what I see the polling telling us. Bottomline, the 50/50 country we live in will result in one of the closest elections in history. Much closer than the last two presidential elections.
SENATE – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much a Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – Obviously, the popular vote will go Harris. Take out California and New York in 2020 and the popular vote for the other 48 states was almost exactly the same for Biden and Trump. Out of 130 million votes in those 48 states (plus 5 territories and DC) it was Biden with 64,929,105 and Trump with 64,966,301. A 0.06% difference!!! Ant that is why the Founding Fathers designed the Electoral College – so us in the other 48 states don’t have wasted votes as CA and NY would solely dictate the presidential winner in every election. I sure as hell don’t want people in CA and NY selecting anything for me!!!!!!!! Back to a forecast…..
The bottomline right now is whomever wins PA wins the election. That simple as of today.
I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states. 6 are for Trump to lose at this point and 1 is for Harris to lose.
WI – This is the closest of the 7 states and Trump is ahead by a frog’s hair. I am confident this will go to Harris. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – The next closest state. It was Trump’s against Biden. Bloomberg has Harris up by a ridiculous 11. It will go to Harris by a closer margin. Harris 251 Trump 219
AZ and NV – Ignoring the horrible Bloomberg poll (almost always is different than every single other poll), these look pretty much going to Trump. Harris 251 Trump 236
NC – Getting into play. But, still looking pretty much a lock for Trump. Harris 251 Trump 252.
GA – This is has really become a tough state for both sides. Atlanta versus the rest of the state basically. Trump has not been behind in any polls against Biden or now Harris. But, most polls are around +1%-+2%. Biden won by 0.3% in 2020.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. If polls hold, Trump wins and gets to 271 or 287. If Harris wins, she gets to 270 or 286. To make it clearer, here are the 4 possible outcomes for GA and PA:
Harris wins BOTH – HARRIS 286 Trump 252
Trump wins BOTH – TRUMP 287 Harris 251
GA (Harris) PA (Trump) – TRUMP 271 Harris 267
GA (Trump) PA (Harris) – HARRIS 270 Trump 268
In all cases above, whomever wins PA wins the election. As of today, I think Trump wins both. But, no doubt, both can go to Harris three months from now.
Lastly, what I wanted to throw out there is the following:
1- GA and PA gets split and the final count is either 270-268 or 271-267.
2 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates refuse to vote for the winning candidate and the final count is either 268-267 or 269-267. Neither candidate gets to 270 to be declared the winner.
3 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates vote opposite of what they are supposed to. Harris’ 270-268 becomes a Trump 270-268 victory. Trump’s 271-267 becomes a 269-269 tie! Or 3 could change votes and give Harris a 270-268 victory.
Knowing how messed up our country has become I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these insane events occur. We would have from Election night to early January when the electoral college votes to endure court cases and lawyers on both sides interpret the constitution differently. Please put me out of my misery now lol
I will update this as things become noteworthy over the next 3 months. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann