SEPTEMBER 7, 2024 – After a record 795 days, the yield curve un-inverted on Friday. By now, it seems that most analysts have discovered my observation that this event starts the clock to a recession. Let me be clear that there is no timeframe for when the recession will occur. Albeit, I have observed that once we get to +100bps we have always been right in the middle of the recession.
The stock market has made it clear there is zero chance of a recession by yearend. And, we are likely to make it through the 1st Quarter of 2025 with positive GDP. However, the first significant cracks in the economy will appear in the 1st Quarter.
If the Bear Market has finally begun, then by year end we will know when the recession will start. In the interim, no need to be like economists and pundits and try to predict this or that. Just sit back and let the stock market tell you when, and if, a recession will occur in 2025.
Shalom,
The Mann