January 27, 2020 – As we are about a month in to the new year and the markets hit new highs last week, the only thing to say at this moment is the obvious – 1st and 2nd Quarter economic growth should be just fine.
The markets have no concerns. Which is usually a sign of a top and something unexpected is about to occur….we shall see. All of those experts that were predicting a recession a year ago sure look foolish….as usual.
A few months ago I addressed what Socionomics was forecasting for 2020 and the Election. The key number to watch is 23,377 for the Dow 30 – If it is above that figure on October 31st, then Trump should win re-election. Below that figure and he should lose re-election.
With the Dow around 29,000, the current expectation is re-election. But, it will be October 31 that will be the date that matters.
I will update this as the year goes along.