Tag Archives: silver

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, QUICK FORECASTS, & THE BITCOIN CRASH

December 15, 2018 – Most importantly, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.  Safe travels if you are out and about this Season.

Just a quick note on the markets as the year winds down.

The stock market has forecast that the economy (I guess we can use GDP as its measurement) will remain strong in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and 1st Quarter of 2019.  However, the 2nd Quarter of 2019 should show a significant slowdown.  The 1st Quarter might reflect a bit of that slowdown.  The Bear Market is at its midpoint.  That doesn’t mean it will decline an amount equal to what it has already declined.  Just that it has traced out half the waves of a full decline.  2019 should be interesting.  Interesting is always good:)

The US Dollar is near a top and should decline for awhile.  The Euro will do the opposite, of course.

Gold has rallied nicely and should continue to $1300-$1350.  Then decline back to around $1200.  This action likely will take up most of next year.  A final push to the $1450 area will follow.  But, that now appears to be a ways off.  Silver has been sluggish.  But, it will follow gold when the time comes.

Lastly, a note on the crash of the cryptocurrencies.  A few of us started watching Bitcoin back when it was under $10.  In fact, when it was a below a $1 I was aware of it.  But, it took an increase in activity to keep it on the radar.  As with any bubble (and this is the greatest bubble in the history of the world….bigger than the South Sea Bubble…..Bitcoin went up over 633,000% (!) from bottom tick to top tick), the decline is usually around 80% to 99%+.

From its peak of $19,800-$20,250, Bitcoin is down 81%.  I can only imagine how many late investors are holding major losses.  Bitcoin is possibly the only significant survivor of this crash.  Most of the others will go to $0.01 and, thus, down over 99%.  So, far Ethereum (-93%), Bitcoin Cash (-98%), Litecoin (-94%), and several other are down well over 90%.  These will likely go down near 100% as they have no value at all.  Just people gambling on air.

The bottom target range for Bitcoin is $150 to $1900.  Yes, that is a bit wide, but for an item that has traded from $0.003 to $20,000, such is life.  The point is a decline of at least 50% from current levels is projected.  I might, only might, start looking at it as a buy between $500 and $800.  But, I doubt I will ever buy into again.  Afterall, it is just fake air with no value….no worth….nothing to actually own.  I would rather go back to trading Pork Belly futures:)

To give you some perspective of the insanity of a top….at the top of the Dot.Com Bubble companies (and the Smart Money) were trying to convince that the public that it was no longer important for a company to be profitable.  Companies just needed to generate revenues.  Never need to make a profit.  Of course, the masses buy into any lie at a bubble top.  The Smart Money sells everything to them and the crash occurs that takes many companies down 100%.  And the public loses big time.

Well in this great bubble of blockchain being the cure for everything….crypocurrencies being better than fiat currencies and gold and so on….companies issuing new stock in ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)….the ultimate sign of insanity was the ICO offering for a company named ‘Telegram.’  Forbes magazine reported the company “has  no viable business model, as it makes no money – on purpose.’  The principal of Telegram said “Making profits will never be an end-goal for Telegram.”  On May 4th, the ‘company’ raised $1.7 Billion, a record for ICOs.

So, there’s your ultimate insane top.  ‘People’ (I think morons and idiots would be better terms) invested $1.7 Billion in a ‘company’ with no plan at all, no plan to ever make money, etc.  They simply flushed $1.7 Billion down the toilet.  7 months later the company has not even issued its tokens.  The question should be why would so many people put their money into a sure loss situation?  At the top of a bubble the masses see no way at all that they can lose on an investment.  Thankfully, it is always that way.  The Smart Money needs someone to sell this junk to at the top.

Socionomics explains the above…..I am finally at the point where I will begin writing the final paper of my real estate career.  It will deal with Socionomics and real estate.  I have spent the past 3 years thinking about the topic and gathering books and articles.  Now to start writing it.  I expect it might take a year or more.  We shall see…

That is all for now.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

OIL & GOLD FORECASTS UPDATED

July 23, 2018 – My last forecast on oil was the Fall of 2016 when it was around $50 per barrel.  Before that, it was early 2016 when it broke down to its low of $26.  I just recently reviewed the charts and see a fairly clear pattern.

So, a quick mention of my observations.  As you might recall in early 2016 as oil plummeted, Goldman Sachs and others were calling for $20 and even $10.  Everyone was saying we were drowning in oil.  Storage tanks nationwide were near capacity.  As I said then, that is all bullish news, not bearish news!  I went long Exxon and an oil ETF and all has been good since then.

Oil has been up and down thru $70 recently.  It is about double what I made my investments at and almost triple its low.  Just more proof that the fundamentals of supply and demand are not relevant.  Commodity traders set prices and they will move every commodity the way they so desire.

My readings of the long-term charts suggest oil prices should continue their bullish trend in to 2021.  It is more difficult to forecast prices.  But, generally, prices should range from $70 and higher thru 2021.  That is not to say there won’t be interim downturns that take it lower – like is currently happening.  In fact, short-term, the downside risk is quite high.

Beyond 2021, the next major low is forecast to occur in 2023.  The last two major lows occurred between $10 and $30 and were part of 80% bear market declines.  I do hope to be on the sidelines before that occurs again!

And now we wait 3-5 years to see how things play out….

GOLD – As for gold, the indicators are as bullish as they were in late 2015/early 2016 when I bought in heavily.  At around $1220 an ounce for gold and $15.50 an ounce for silver, the future should be up for awhile – a year, two, I don’t know at this point.  I just know this is a major buying opportunity, per the indicators.  Gold never has got to the $1450 area I have been looking for….this might be the move that gets us there.

Like oil, we shall see….

Lastly, not that any of you play Coffee futures, but…..it looks like Coffee futures may break below $1.00 and put in a final major low and start upward for quite awhile.  What it does mean is if you buy coffee at a supermarket, continue to enjoy the low prices while you can :)

MID-SUMMER UPDATE AND PLEASE FOLLOW VENEZUELA

July 12, 2016 – I hope everyone had a great 4th of July and are enjoying their Summer – daily massacres aside:(  It has been a hot and humid one in the South – those who know me, know I am hibernating until January:)

Real quick post this time.  Gold and Silver have been stronger than expected.  And Goldman Sachs is still waiting for $1100 on Gold by June – maybe they meant next June.  LOL

My simple prediction for Oil is – this decline should end around $40 give or take a buck or two.  Then I expect $60 next year and $90-$100 around 2018.  That simple.  I’ll continue to hold my Exxon through everything.

Soybeans have corrected a lot after breaking 12 cents.  I have no forecast on them right now other than my 20 cents for next Summer might need to be lowered to 19 cents.  Either would still be all-time records.

The USA stock market and bonds are at record highs.  They refuse to correct.  I think the World is simply saying we are the only safe haven.  Many stock markets are down over 25% already and no one here is aware of it.

I am pretty sure our real estate market is in a bubble that is gradually bursting.  It feels like we are exactly where where we were 10 years ago – except our economy is not nearly as strong today.  Imaginary money from the Fed has done wonders.  We are building apartments at 4x-5x our national population growth.  10 years ago we were building 5-10 years of houses each year.  Now it is 4-5 years of apartments each year.  You can figure out what will cause this downturn.

Italy should be on your radar as it gets real messy there soon.  Obviously, that will hurt the EU some more.

As for the Brexit, I believe this is an incredible time to buy anything and everything in England.  I think the FTSE has already recovered all of the decline from the first 2 days after the Brexit vote.  USA stocks have done likewise.  Real estate prices nationwide are down 20% (sounds like America November 2008-January 2009 when we declined 30% in those 3 months).  We will all continue to buy from England.  Nothing will change.  England and the EU will do just fine.  The Establishment told lies and used fear and still lost the vote.  Sounds like what is happening in America eh:)

Lastly, I cannot encourage you enough to please follow what is happening in Venezuela.  Do this daily, else weekly at worst.  Venezuela is going through what most every country in the World will go through one day – including the USA.  We just might be able to hold off the longest of everyone.  For those in The Stupid Generation (aka Millennials) who Felt The Bern, watch Venezuela to see what Socialism brings.  It is beyond scary over there.  Kids and teachers in food lines most days.  Most schools are closed.  Thieves rob people in the lines of their cell phones and whatever else they have.  Those who try to fight get killed and people don’t even blink.  They just keep their place in line and step over the corpses.  Coca-Cola stopped making Coke because of a sugar shortage.  Grocery stores are robbed as people have no food.  I am sure a million more stories are occurring.  There are lists of items they have run out of in Venezuela.  Search for those lists.  They give you an idea of what we should stock up on before we ever start our serious decline.  As I have mentioned before, keeping real cash at home is essential.  Our government and governments around the world are doing all they can to eliminate the use of cash.  When all is electronic they can freeze or take our money instantly.  Please, just follow the events in Venezuela.  No need to listen to me.  Watch reality unfold and you decide what you need to do to protect you and your family and friends.

The Dark Ages II (copyright) have begun for the World and it won’t be pretty.  But, at least we are still near the beginning when things are relatively good.  Enjoy all you have.

BTW, if anyone comes across any good web sites that are documenting what is happening in Venezuela, please email them to me.  I will share them in a future post.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO THE ECHO DEPRESSION(c)

January 7, 2016 – First off, Happy New Year to everyone.  I hope you had a safe and fun Holiday Season.

As we start 2016, the markets are showing signs of The Echo Depression(c) being fully underway.  Like the Summer of 2005, I was saying  last Summer that the new correction was beginning.  Exactly 10 years later, but that is just coincidence.

The other interesting timing is the 1929 Crash and 1937 Bottom occurring 8 years apart.  Some have noted this and predicted that 8 years from the 2008 Crash would place us in a major bottom area for 2016.  The odds are increasing every day that this will occur.

Social Mood, which is measured by the stock markets, peaked last June and July, for the most part.  This usually leads Social Action by about 3-6 months.  As such, we should see weak GDP growth in the USA in the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2016.  Probably beyond that, too.

Hopefully, the peak in housing prices will occur soon and the much needed correction will get underway.  Of course, NAR and the public will deny that prices are back at ‘bubble’ levels.  A Bear Market and Echo Depression(c) start with the masses in denial.

Once again, we will look back and appraisers will say how could anyone know?  Yadda Yadda.  If you don’t realize that many markets are priced way above value again, then you aren’t doing a good market analysis.  There is no excuse for not considering a downturn is upon us – and for those who sued appraisers for inflated appraisals back in 2005-2008, you can get ready to do it again.

The Market Conditions Addendum was invented for the exact market conditions we are in.  Collect the right data.  Analyze it.  Recognize when the downturn has started to occur.  Be emphatic with your conclusions.  It is time to step up and do what the market has wanted us to do all of these years.  Don’t just follow prices up and down like we have for 80+ years!

On TV we should hear analysts saying that America’s economy is not dependent on China’s economy.  Americans are in less debt than before the 2008 Crisis – of course, Americans are still way more in debt than they can afford and more than ever occurred before 2008.  None of this matters and it is simply a way to keep the public invested so the smart money can continue to sell out at the top.

1937 was a severe bear market, but it is not mentioned in comparison to 1929-1932.  The Echo Depression(c) will be remembered the same way in comparison to the 2008 Crisis.  As I have tried to explain for the past few years, 95% of ‘tops’ simply occur and are followed by bear markets and recessions.  Rarely do ‘bubbles’ occur (2027-2032 is my prediction for the next huge bubble to occur).  My expectation has been the public would get fooled this time as they would be looking for a ‘bubble’ the size of 2008 to ‘know’ when to get out of their investments.  Even if such a bubble did occur again, the public would actually be buying more at the top.  As Mann’s Axiom says, the market is always wrong.

My friends have heard me say for the past 3+ years that I was waiting for Gold to go below $1100 and Silver below $14 and I would get back in those markets.  I am back to being all in like I was back when gold was $250-$300/ounce.  Commodity bottoms are tougher to call than commodity tops – just the opposite of financial markets.  So, I doubt I will have picked the exact bottoms.  But, I think we will look back in several years and say hey not a bad place to have bought at.

Oil is as negative as you will ever see.  I joke with the wife that I am going to take delivery on an oil futures contract and have a 100,000 gallon tank sitting in our back yard:)  I would rather be a buyer now than when it was $100 a barrel.  My way out there prediction is for oil to break above $50 per barrel by June or earlier.  I think I am the only one in the world who predicts such.  As always, we shall see.   And yes I have actual money placed on this happening.  Luck please look my way:)

Regarding oil, it was a year ago a few of us were saying that the bubble in Bakken (North Dakota) had burst and a year from then we would look back at how far the area has declined.  This occurred as expected and a few nights ago an evening news program visited the area and detailed what is occurring after 250,000 (!) jobs have been lost in the industry (not all in Bakken, of course).  This was one of the easier bubbles to call and watch on a daily and weekly basis unfold.  Those are fun when they occur:)

Lastly, with everyone bullish on the dollar for all of 2016, will February be the month we see a major top…..

Those are my initial thoughts and some predictions for the year.  I always welcome feedback, your thoughts, any articles you think I should read, etc.  Since 2008-2010, I have waited for 2015-2017 to have some interesting times (up years like 2011-2014 are simply boring).  This will be an interesting year!

Oh and yes nearer to election, I will tell you again (like in 2012) who will win and, like in 2012,  will see if I can get all 50 states right re the Electoral count and such.  Neither is as hard as you would think.

Happy New Year!