Tag Archives: real estate

REAL ESTATE MARKETS AND THE FUTURE

APRIL 11 -First, Happy Easter and Passover to all.

In this post I will list everything I have encountered about real estate and what participants are observing and projecting.  I hope you find this information helpful.

Nearly 1/3 of apartment renters paid no rent the first week of April.

Initially office buildings were considered a safe holding or investment due to typically long leases.  However, tenants have stopped paying rent or asked for reduced rent.  Sales of skyscrapers are reportedly falling apart.

I think the above shows a trend towards tenants simply refusing to pay rent until they can afford to.  The Cheesecake Factory and hundreds of retailers are doing the same.  Tenants are rightfully challenging landlords – are they going to kick us out and have a vacant building?  Who are they going to get to replace us?

40% of oil and natural gas producers are expected to go bankrupt if oil stays around $30 a barrel.  Remember, it went down to $20 before rebounding to the $30 area.  The four largest banks are setting up independent oil and gas companies to operate the assets they will be taking back.  Of course, they will likely hire people from the companies that go bankrupt to run these fields for them…as they say, people get promoted to their level of competency.  In this case the people that fail at business get rewarded with new jobs.

75% of debt relief requests have come from hotel and retail real estate owners.

Over $80 billion in commercial rent comes due each month.

One of the best weekly reports I have come across is put out by David Wirgler at Stan Johnson Co.  His email is dwirgler@stanjohnsonco.com    I do not know how much it costs.  But, it is an incredible source of real estate information obtained from hundreds of interviews with market participants.  If you are involved with CRE in any way, I highly recommend you checking this product out.

Developers remain active and are moving forward with projects.  Investors are slowing down though.  Not much information out there about what is happening to cap rates.  If you have seen anything, please forward to me so I can share it with everyone (GeorgeRMann@Aol.Com).

As of March 13th (early on in this crisis), 53% of respondents to a survey agreed with the statement “I will not go out to eat at restaurants as often.’  I am with them.  I can’t see eating inside a restaurant again for ages.  Just not worth the risk until we have a vaccine in place.  Remember, the expectation is that 1/3 of all restaurants nationwide will close up for good.  That will be lots of real estate needing new tenants and users.

I used to love Macy’s, but it has gone way downhill in its offerings over the past decade.  The expectation is they will not survive this downturn.  Knowing that companies are living entities that will do all they can to survive, I expect Macy’s to die a slow death like Sear’s.  The best thing that can happen to Macy’s is for Amazon to buy all of their real estate as it is great for last mile operations.  We shall see how it plays out.

In my opinion, the two best sources of residential information are John Burns Real Estate Consulting (https://www.realestateconsulting.com/) and American Enterprise Institute (https://www.aei.org/).  They both have free newsletters.  I highly recommend subscribing to both.

I forget which of them it was, but the expectation is for home prices to fall 4% to 6%.  This is the first specific decline I have seen for any real estate property types.  Also, futures on home prices are showing a 5% to 10% decline over the next year for most markets.

I will end with a summary from AEI’s April 8th email:

1. Housing market is facing numerous stress points and at accelerated speeds. As a result the recovery will likely be an elongated U, not a V shaped.

2. Ginnie- and GSE-centric solutions are appropriate given that 64% of single-family mortgage loans are held or guaranteed by these federal mortgage agencies and 100% of these are covered by the forbearance provisions of the CARES Act.

3. While Ginnie’s liquidity challenges are substantial, a well-designed Ginnie-centric solution is being put in place.

4. The GSEs liquidity challenges are also substantial, however more needs to be done to implement a GSE-centric solution.

5. Non-bank servicers face substantial financial challenges.

6. Treasury and FSOC should continue to monitor progress by Ginnie, Fannie, and Freddie, as well as any stresses developing elsewhere in the mortgage market.  The goal should be to have the needed solutions in place by the end of April.  At the same time, a coordinated consumer-education effort should be undertaken, focused on best industry practices in handling forbearance requests.

7. Canary zip codes are highly susceptible to price declines, largely areas with high concentrations of FHA loans.

The full report is at:

Challenges facing the single family housing market with focus on liquidity challenges facing Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac

I encourage you to email Mr. Pinto and get on his email list.

Lastly, I have heard of some entities essentially staying closed thru the Summer or even end of year.  I have heard a few popular singers say they don’t expect to be able to have a concert tour until the Summer of 2022.  Some companies are furloughing their employees for the 4 months that the government will be paying them the $1200 or whatever the amount is.  I didn’t know that was being given out for 4 months, but….if so, then companies are saying hey let the Fed pay you and save us this expense.  The point is many companies are not expecting to be up and running until after the Summer, if then.  Some realize they have no chance until next year.  For some industries there probably isn’t any hope until we have a vaccine.  The recovery will break records because we will be bouncing from all-time lows (and I mean all-time…that being the entire history of the USA).  But, it will likely be a staggered recovery as industries will differ in how long it takes them to get up to full speed again.

I hope everyone is safe and well and had a great Easter and Passover.

Godspeed.

The Mann

 

JUST ANOTHER RECORD BAD WEEK

MARCH 20 (EVENING) – I had thought the markets had calmed down and it wasn’t much of a week.  Then I read this was one of the worst weeks since 2008.  I thought last week was.  Or the week before that.

I don’t have much to add to my lengthy post two evenings ago.

New lows should be set next week.  The question is will we have the largest declines to date – which would see more 3000 point down days.  Or will this be a moderate decline.  It is tough to see the DOW taking on another 3000 point down day or two.  But, …..

In trying to fine tune a range for a bottom, nothing has changed the 14,400 to 18,400 figures.  But, 15,500-15,700 is now looking good for a more precise bottom.  As I said initially, I think the low will be towards the bottom of the range.  I just can’t see us having an intermediate term bottom above 17,000.

The subsequent rally should return to the 21,000 area.  I didn’t think much about that, but then I realized that could be a 40%-50% rally.  I guess that isn’t something to sneeze at.

But, first let’s get down to the bottom.

VOO did have -$1.3 Billion this week.  So, it moved to the outflow list.  But, for the week investors poured over $6 Billion into stock ETFs.  This is insanity as the market crashes.  When tens of billions of dollars of funds are being taken out of stock ETFs we will be nearing a bottom.  We have a long way to go.

Remember, no need to be alarmed about the number of China Virus cases soaring for the next 4 weeks.  Experts say the cases should peak out by the end of April.  When optimism kicks in at the cases leveling out and then declining, don’t get carried away.  We are still in a major economic downturn that has only just begun.

For those looking for some perspective re the virus.  Wuhan had its first case on November 17th.  This week no new cases were reported in all of China.  From nothing to nothing in 5 months.  I forget when we had our first case – mid-February?  5 months gets us to July.  But, we got on top of this earlier than China did and the virus doesn’t like temps above 80 degrees and Summer is coming.  So, things are looking real good for the USA to be working on wrapping this virus up in May and June.  Let’s hope, eh.

Regarding real estate….I have heard that renters are leaving apartments to go to rental houses.  Less chance of catching the virus in a freestanding house.  Also, people are recognizing what I have been screaming about for decades – big cities are dense and it is easy for a virus to spread to the masses.  Ask the Big Apple about that!  Suburbs and especially rural areas are where people need to move to.  The jobs will follow.  The decay in our largest cities will accelerate as crime festers, diseases run rampant, homelessness gets out of hand, taxes are too high, traffic is a nightmare, on and on.

Thanks to those that have sent me information to look at.  I have found several new sources I will follow.  I truly appreciate it.

We just got our first known case of the virus in Aiken today.  We shall see how it plays out locally.

Learn to enjoy time at home with the family….like we used to before the internet ruined everything.  Put a dent in those honey-do lists:)  I know I am getting a lot done around the farm.

Stay safe.

My next update will be Monday evening.

Godspeed.

The Mann

FF&E – FIRREA vs. USPAP

January 7, 2016 – Below is a question I received followed by my reply.  Happy New Year to all.

George – Hope your holidays were great and 2015 is finishing off strong.  I was hoping to get your opinion on an item below.

It’s just how non-realty items are reported in the appraisal report. No change at all in the new USPAP – I’ve just been inconsistent in how I treat it. Sometimes I show a $ allocation, sometimes I don’t and just say it is included in the value and has a positive effect on value. Either way, I’m always clear on whether non-real property items are in the value or not.

So just trying to nail down exactly what is right or what USPAP expects. I’ve seen personal property treated many different ways and some appraisers still don’t say anything about it… USPAP doesn’t say much on the topic.

Thanks for any input!

As stated in Standards Rule 1-4, part (G): When personal property, trade fixtures, or intangible items are included in the appraisal, the appraiser must analyze the effect on value of such non-real property items.

My question is what is the extent of “analyzing the effect on value?” For instance, in a multifamily property with appliances necessary for continued operation, do we need to actually state the estimated amount that the appliances contribute to value or is it sufficient to note that the market value includes all personal property items which contribute to the market value?  If the value needs to be broken down and allocated between real property and non-real property items – can the allocation be stated once near the beginning of the appraisal report or does the allocation have to be every place where there is a market value stated?

Just curious because I have heard several versions and I didn’t really see any Advisory Opinions on the topic.

============  MY REPLY ============================

Your question only exists because the ASB and AI and others won’t specifically address the various differences between USPAP and FIRREA.
The bottomline is USPAP does NOT require a value on the FF&E.  Albeit, it would probably help all clients to know such.  More info cannot hurt.
However, FIRREA DOES require values be allocated to FF&E and Business/Intangible Assets so that the appraiser provides the ONLY required value per FIRREA – Market Value As Is of REAL ESTATE ONLY.
So, when doing an appraisal for a Federally-Related Transaction, you MUST provide a value for the non-realty items.  It has been that way since 1990/1991.
Where you place it….well that is up to you.  But, technically, when you state Market Value As Is (as well as Upon Completion and Upon Stabilization) it should just be the Real Estate Only number.
However, 99%+ of appraisers state Market Value INCLUSIVE of FF&E and Biz Value and then have some kind of footnote or wording in parentheses saying ‘the above includes $1,400 of FF&E’. Something like that.  They let the Bank do the math to get to the real estate only number.
So, you can do it that way and you will be in line with your peers.  As I always tell appraisers though, if you want to stand out from the crowd provide what your client really needs, and in this case, state MV without the FF&E and Biz Value and then let the footnote say how much the FF&E and Biz Values are worth.

The reason banks need the Real Estate Only number is it is Federal law (FDICIA of 1991) that LTV must (!) be calculated on this number only.  Any MV number that includes FF&E and/or Biz Value is worthless to a bank!

Now, for non-Bank clients you can forget all of the above.  However, I still recommend providing the separate values.
I hope this helps.

THE DICTIONARY OF REAL ESTATE APPRAISAL, 6TH EDITION

October 26, 2015 – Per the Appraisal Institute’s web site:

http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/the-dictionary-of-real-estate-appraisal-6th-edition/

The Appraisal Institute is proud to present the sixth edition of The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal and grateful to the dozens of practicing appraisers who contributed to its development. This new edition features

  •  5,000+ dictionary entries
  • 1,250 revised definitions
  • 450 new terms

Also included are new and revised glossaries to help real property valuers understand the language of related professionals in architecture and construction; mathematics and statistics; environmental contamination; agriculture, forestry, soils, and wetlands; and green building. Other addenda contain information on real estate organizations; important US government agencies, legislation, and programs;  significant US Supreme Court decisions; and useful measures and conversions.

 

Adding value to the appraisal of the future – by Ed Pinto

August 24, 2015 – Ed Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute was a closing speaker at the Appraisal Institute’s national conference in Dallas a few weeks ago.  One of the new items he presented is summarized below.  As the title suggests, the idea is to make the appraisal of the future value-added – instead of simply providing Market Price as has been the case for the past 80 years.  The primary focus of Ed’s comments is residential appraising.

His ideas follow.  I will not add any commentary.  Just sharing the perspective from an independent party that is in contact with FHA, FNMA, Freddie Mac, etc – Ed was a prominent FNMA employee in the 1980s.

Determine (methodology):

–Market cycle history*

  • Create and review 10-year nominal and real home price trend to determine current position in market cycle relative to equilibrium
  • If the real price trend currently at equilibrium, robust comparable sales approach is likely appropriate.
  • If the real price trend currently elevated or depressed, the lesser of investment and replacement cost approaches is likely appropriate.

–History of buyer’s (>6 mo.) and or seller’s market (<=6 mo.) for existing homes**

  • Determine whether a buyer’s or seller’s market based on months of home inventory divided by listings/sales rate; determine whether a buyer’s or seller’s market
  • If real prices are increasing, it is almost certain that a seller’s market is present
  • Market disequilibrium more likely the longer an uninterrupted seller’s market continues

–Buying power due to change in power leverage**

  • AEI’s Center on Housing Risk plans to incorporate into its Mortgage Risk Index by year end

–Land value and change in land share trends**

  • Calculate land value by extraction using exchange value minus replacement cost

–Whether real price change due to leverage growth or improving utility or a mix

  • Evaluate role played by income leverage vs. fundamentals (i.e. job & real income growth)

*For the MSA, the subject property’s market area and price tier,(zip code or below), and the subject property

**For the MSA and the subject property’s market area and price tier (zip code or below)