Tag Archives: gold

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, QUICK FORECASTS, & THE BITCOIN CRASH

December 15, 2018 – Most importantly, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.  Safe travels if you are out and about this Season.

Just a quick note on the markets as the year winds down.

The stock market has forecast that the economy (I guess we can use GDP as its measurement) will remain strong in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and 1st Quarter of 2019.  However, the 2nd Quarter of 2019 should show a significant slowdown.  The 1st Quarter might reflect a bit of that slowdown.  The Bear Market is at its midpoint.  That doesn’t mean it will decline an amount equal to what it has already declined.  Just that it has traced out half the waves of a full decline.  2019 should be interesting.  Interesting is always good:)

The US Dollar is near a top and should decline for awhile.  The Euro will do the opposite, of course.

Gold has rallied nicely and should continue to $1300-$1350.  Then decline back to around $1200.  This action likely will take up most of next year.  A final push to the $1450 area will follow.  But, that now appears to be a ways off.  Silver has been sluggish.  But, it will follow gold when the time comes.

Lastly, a note on the crash of the cryptocurrencies.  A few of us started watching Bitcoin back when it was under $10.  In fact, when it was a below a $1 I was aware of it.  But, it took an increase in activity to keep it on the radar.  As with any bubble (and this is the greatest bubble in the history of the world….bigger than the South Sea Bubble…..Bitcoin went up over 633,000% (!) from bottom tick to top tick), the decline is usually around 80% to 99%+.

From its peak of $19,800-$20,250, Bitcoin is down 81%.  I can only imagine how many late investors are holding major losses.  Bitcoin is possibly the only significant survivor of this crash.  Most of the others will go to $0.01 and, thus, down over 99%.  So, far Ethereum (-93%), Bitcoin Cash (-98%), Litecoin (-94%), and several other are down well over 90%.  These will likely go down near 100% as they have no value at all.  Just people gambling on air.

The bottom target range for Bitcoin is $150 to $1900.  Yes, that is a bit wide, but for an item that has traded from $0.003 to $20,000, such is life.  The point is a decline of at least 50% from current levels is projected.  I might, only might, start looking at it as a buy between $500 and $800.  But, I doubt I will ever buy into again.  Afterall, it is just fake air with no value….no worth….nothing to actually own.  I would rather go back to trading Pork Belly futures:)

To give you some perspective of the insanity of a top….at the top of the Dot.Com Bubble companies (and the Smart Money) were trying to convince that the public that it was no longer important for a company to be profitable.  Companies just needed to generate revenues.  Never need to make a profit.  Of course, the masses buy into any lie at a bubble top.  The Smart Money sells everything to them and the crash occurs that takes many companies down 100%.  And the public loses big time.

Well in this great bubble of blockchain being the cure for everything….crypocurrencies being better than fiat currencies and gold and so on….companies issuing new stock in ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)….the ultimate sign of insanity was the ICO offering for a company named ‘Telegram.’  Forbes magazine reported the company “has  no viable business model, as it makes no money – on purpose.’  The principal of Telegram said “Making profits will never be an end-goal for Telegram.”  On May 4th, the ‘company’ raised $1.7 Billion, a record for ICOs.

So, there’s your ultimate insane top.  ‘People’ (I think morons and idiots would be better terms) invested $1.7 Billion in a ‘company’ with no plan at all, no plan to ever make money, etc.  They simply flushed $1.7 Billion down the toilet.  7 months later the company has not even issued its tokens.  The question should be why would so many people put their money into a sure loss situation?  At the top of a bubble the masses see no way at all that they can lose on an investment.  Thankfully, it is always that way.  The Smart Money needs someone to sell this junk to at the top.

Socionomics explains the above…..I am finally at the point where I will begin writing the final paper of my real estate career.  It will deal with Socionomics and real estate.  I have spent the past 3 years thinking about the topic and gathering books and articles.  Now to start writing it.  I expect it might take a year or more.  We shall see…

That is all for now.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

OIL & GOLD FORECASTS UPDATED

July 23, 2018 – My last forecast on oil was the Fall of 2016 when it was around $50 per barrel.  Before that, it was early 2016 when it broke down to its low of $26.  I just recently reviewed the charts and see a fairly clear pattern.

So, a quick mention of my observations.  As you might recall in early 2016 as oil plummeted, Goldman Sachs and others were calling for $20 and even $10.  Everyone was saying we were drowning in oil.  Storage tanks nationwide were near capacity.  As I said then, that is all bullish news, not bearish news!  I went long Exxon and an oil ETF and all has been good since then.

Oil has been up and down thru $70 recently.  It is about double what I made my investments at and almost triple its low.  Just more proof that the fundamentals of supply and demand are not relevant.  Commodity traders set prices and they will move every commodity the way they so desire.

My readings of the long-term charts suggest oil prices should continue their bullish trend in to 2021.  It is more difficult to forecast prices.  But, generally, prices should range from $70 and higher thru 2021.  That is not to say there won’t be interim downturns that take it lower – like is currently happening.  In fact, short-term, the downside risk is quite high.

Beyond 2021, the next major low is forecast to occur in 2023.  The last two major lows occurred between $10 and $30 and were part of 80% bear market declines.  I do hope to be on the sidelines before that occurs again!

And now we wait 3-5 years to see how things play out….

GOLD – As for gold, the indicators are as bullish as they were in late 2015/early 2016 when I bought in heavily.  At around $1220 an ounce for gold and $15.50 an ounce for silver, the future should be up for awhile – a year, two, I don’t know at this point.  I just know this is a major buying opportunity, per the indicators.  Gold never has got to the $1450 area I have been looking for….this might be the move that gets us there.

Like oil, we shall see….

Lastly, not that any of you play Coffee futures, but…..it looks like Coffee futures may break below $1.00 and put in a final major low and start upward for quite awhile.  What it does mean is if you buy coffee at a supermarket, continue to enjoy the low prices while you can :)

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy New Year

December 12, 2017 – It is a bit early, but I wanted to go ahead and wish everyone a Happy Holiday season.  I hope you have a great time with your family and friends.  Those are the most important people in your life.

As a general wrap up to the year, it has made history as much as 2016 did.  All projections by the Fake News Media and Libtards that Trump would resign or be impeached proved wrong.  The stock market and economy went upward unabated.  Albeit, the all-time greatest bubble in history (greater than ALL prior bubbles combined), Bitcoin, outperformed everything.  To think I started watching Bitcoin when it was pennies and tried to buy a bunch around $8 but a tech glitch occurred.  Oh well, woulda coulda shoulda.

Staying long the stock market was the way to go.  As noted, in a prior blog I got out of gold for the first time in over a decade.  I am about to go back all-in, albeit I will focus more on mining stocks this time around.  HUI is a gold mining index that is around 175.  It is getting itself positioned for upwards of a 150% move to the 400 area.  I am looking for it to hit 160-165 and gold $1220-$1230 and I will enter all in.  This will be the best entry for gold since early 2016.

Silver has been forming a strong bottom foundation in the $15 range.  It is probably a strong buy at this time and price.

As I noted last August, the US Dollar is in an uptrend.  After bottoming around 91, it is near 94.  It should continue upward thru early 2018.

Oil hit $60.  Just 2 years ago it went below $30 and forecasts called for $10.  I see a small drop to $55 and then a move to $65-$75 in early 2018.  I will have to revisit at that time to see where we go from there.

Two of the bigger events in 2018 will be the ramping up of America’s Second Civil War (aka The War of Liberal Aggression) and the implosion of Venezuela.  Of course, the November elections will tell us if America wants the conservative agenda to continue or place us back in a stalemate where nothing happens.  It is apparent that the country will only move in a specific direction if one party controls everything.  Negotiation no longer exists.  Both sides are to blame.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to all.  May 2018 be a healthy and prosperous year for everyone.

Updated Forecasts & The 2nd Civil War

August 17, 2017 – With a few markets being at interesting junctions, I thought I would just put my new forecasts in writing and check back on the January predictions.  The three markets I covered are shown below with my January writing and my new thoughts.  New thoughts are in all caps, so as to distinguish from the January wording.  No, I am not yelling at everyone:)  I am also adding a new call on the US Dollar.

GOLD – Like this time last year, I think gold is at a major buying point.  Either the low is in place or it will be within the next month or so.  The downside is $1160 from Friday’s close of about $1191.  The upside is an initial move thru $1300 and final top between $1450 and $1500.  This is a highly favorable risk/reward entry point.  –  THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A PERFECTLY TIMED CALL.  GOLD IS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING TO $1300 ($1293 today).  BUT, I AM STILL CONFIDENT IT WILL AND WON’T CHANGE MY JANUARY ANALYSIS.

STOCK MARKET – It is always crazy to pick a number for a high or low.  But, that has never stopped me before:)  I am forecasting a top for the DOW 30 between 21,250 and 22,000.  At this point, no time frame and not much thought as to how far the downturn will be after this occurs.  Just better to update if we get to that level. – THE DOW HIT 22,179 ON AUGUST 8TH.  IT WAS IN THE 19,500 RANGE IN LATE JANUARY.  SO FAR, THE CALL HAS PLAYED OUT AS EXPECTED.  BUT, RIGHT NOW MY ANALYSIS IS MURKY.  EITHER ONE OF THE MAJOR TOPS OF ALL TIME IS IN PLACE OR ONE MORE RALLY IS DUE AFTER THE CURRENT MINOR CORRECTION PLAYS OUT.    IF IT IS THE LATTER, I WILL GO AHEAD AND FORECAST 23,000-24,000 FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FINAL ALL-TIME HIGH.  I HATE TO BE ‘IFFY,’ BUT HEY I JUST WRITE DOWN WHAT MY ANALYSIS SAYS REGARDLESS OF WHAT IT SAYS.

COPPER – As I mentioned last Summer when Goldman Sachs said copper was going to decline from around $2.10 to $1.80 that was probably the time to buy.  It is about $2.70 now.  I think GS is now bullish on copper.  We know what that means.  Sell:)  – COPPER GOT DOWN TO $2.52 IN MAY BEFORE RALLYING STRONGLY TO $3.00 TODAY.   UNLIKE THE TWO CALLS ABOVE, THIS ONE WASN’T A GOOD ONE.  ALBEIT, JUST FORECASTING BASED ON WHAT A COMPANY SAYS VERSUS ACTUALLY ANALYZING THE CHARTS ISN’T A GOOD THING IN ITSELF.  BUT, IT IS FUN TO SEE HOW MANY TIMES GOLDMAN SACHS IS WRONG:)

US DOLLAR – 18 months ago everyone was bullish on the dollar and, thus, I had to be bearish.  The US Dollar Index was around 95-97 back then.    It dropped to 92 on May 3, 2016 and then rallied until January 3, 2017 when it topped at 103.82.  Since then, it has dropped to 92.55 on August 2nd.  A lot of up and down thru the 95-97 area.   Bulls and bears have both been frustrated.  Today I make  one of those ‘easy’ calls, in my opinion.  Buy the US Dollar as it is due for a solid rally.

The 2nd Civil War – When I was a young, young kid, I remember seeing on the evening news each week (I would assume on Friday) a count of the number of Americans wounded and killed in Vietnam that week.  Might have also had numbers for the opposition.  I don’t remember it well.

But, I think we will keep such tallies again one day.  This time for our own killing of each other on American soil.  After Charlottesville last week, the initial count is as follows:

Deliberate Attacks:  Alt-Left – 1; Alt-Right – 1

Deaths: Alt-Left – 1; Alt-Right – 0 (Senator Scalise being one wounded on this side)

This is quite morbid.  But, with the violence started by the Alt-Left, I have no doubt the attacks and casualties are only in the early stages.  Can the Alt-Left ever let ANY group with a different viewpoint express their opinion thru a legal gathering and just leave them alone?  Apparently not.  They try to shut down every event and usually cause conflict and violence.  Although I care less about the False News people out there who would take my above words and make false assumptions about me (like they did to Trump this time around again), let me be clear I am not a supporter of the KKK or Nazis or groups specifically wanting supremacy, whether it is for whites or blacks or some other class of people.

I will end this with a slogan I thought of for The Stupid Generation that sums up their illogical thought process and lack of accomplishments – “Failure Is An Accomplishment!”

USA 2.0 AND 2017 FORECASTS

January 28, 2017 –  The new year is underway (for the Chinese also starting today) and all seems to be going as planned.  Eight days into the new administration and the only surprise is that the Alt-Left Media and its followers are surprised that the new President is keeping his word.  He is not a politician.  He did not campaign on false promises.  They still do not get it….and likely never will.

As I mentioned on Election Night, everything has changed in regard to forecasting the markets.  I turned bullish that night and have enjoyed one of the largest advances ever.  Obviously, the market is pricing in great economic conditions.  The problem now is if the high expectations can occur.  Many high-level executives are selling their stock and taking some chips off the table.  Probably a good move.

Overall, last year went pretty well for me regarding forecasts.  This year could be very tough – I expect our economy to do very well.  However, we really need a significant downturn to get rid of the excesses….and a trade war could make that happen.  But, I don’t want to sound like the old joke we tell about forecasters – the market may go up, but it could go down.  So, let me give an early shot at it….knowing that in 3 or so months I might have to update my forecasts.

GOLD – Like this time last year, I think gold is at a major buying point.  Either the low is in place or it will be within the next month or so.  The downside is $1160 from Friday’s close of about $1191.  The upside is an initial move thru $1300 and final top between $1450 and $1500.  This is a highly favorable risk/reward entry point.

STOCK MARKET – It is always crazy to pick a number for a high or low.  But, that has never stopped me before:)  I am forecasting a top for the DOW 30 between 21,250 and 22,000.  At this point, no time frame and not much thought as to how far the downturn will be after this occurs.  Just better to update if we get to that level.

COPPER – As I mentioned last Summer when Goldman Sachs said copper was going to decline from around $2.10 to $1.80 that was probably the time to buy.  It is about $2.70 now.  I think GS is now bullish on copper.  We know what that means.  Sell:)

That is about all I have re forecasts.  Nothing regarding oil right now.  It played out perfectly last year.  Hopefully, soon I will have a new forecast for it.

Lastly, please vote for Calexit if you are in California.  Getting rid of California would be a great improvement for the USA.

Here’s to a healthy and prosperous new year for all.

 

GOLD & OIL FORECAST UPDATE

October 10, 2016 – I have been waiting several months and we have finally got to a point where I am going back to all-in regarding gold and silver.  The next bull leg should start from the current levels around $1250 and $17.50 per ounce.  For gold, the initial targets are $1435 and $1480-$1500 per ounce.  These will get refined as the move unfolds.

Regarding oil, it is above $50 again.  $55-$60 over the remainder of the year remains a valid target.  The bears keep arguing about a world drowning in oil.  They just don’t get that such fundamentals are not relevant.  But, that is a good thing.  We need the vast majority of people to watch fundamentals in order to trade against them:)

I hope everyone survived Matthew.  We did fine where I am at in NC.  Albeit, NC got hit the hardest and will be suffering for awhile longer.  Fall is finally here.  Enjoy it and be safe.

PENNIES (DOLLAR) GENERAL

August 26, 2016 – I was just talking with an appraiser a few days ago about how my post on the day of the all-time high for Dollar General might go down as (tied for) one of my best calls of all-time.  And then yesterday the stock crashes 17%!  So far so good.

Everyone says if we do have another downturn like 2006-2010, then Dollar General and such stores should do well.  As we know, when it is that obvious, it won’t happen.

Also, I contend that their real estate issue will come back to bite them.  I am sure there is a breakeven sales volume they have for any and all stores.  If you build too many and cannibalize your own stores, then you will not achieve the needed sales.  I believe that is the case with Dollar General.  We shall see.

And we shall see how many years, if ever, it takes DG (NYSE) to get back to its all-time high.

Quick updates on a few other items.  Oil is around $47 and doing just fine.  My predictions hold.

Gold is in a tough spot to forecast.  It got to upper $1300’s, which was one of my early forecast points.  There is a chance it has put in a major high for awhile.  Gold stocks finally crumbled this week after being up 188% this year.  But, there is still a chance it can go on up to $1500.  So, this is not prediction time – I always hate when analysts say it might go up, but it might do down:)  I will wait for it to play out to a point I see a clear prediction.  It’s nice to just sit aside after a huge profitable year:)  No need to guess or chase anything.

I will post about the real estate bubble very soon.  I finally am confident this is a bubble and no longer just a top.  Not sure it really matters.  A downturn is a downturn.  But, I have gotten some of the indications of a top just like in 2006 and feel like it is time to discuss such.  Til then have a great weekend.

LATE SUMMER UPDATE

August 15, 2016 – Some quick notes regarding the futures markets.

Per my July post, Crude Oil did bottom at $39.19, within the $40 plus or minus $2 target range.  This past Friday it closed near $45.  $50-$60 is still the target for the remainder of the year.  Much higher prices next year and into 2018.  A chart I just saw on XOI – an index of oil stocks – jumped out at me.  It is around 1100 right now.  1500 looks to be a minimum upside target in this bull market with a much higher level likely.  I’ll play this move by holding my Exxon stock.  Maybe it’ll break $100 by yearend.

Gold stocks as measured by the HUI index are up 188% this year.  Someone please remind the geniuses at Goldman Sachs that their bear market in gold has not occurred:)

Is Goldman Sachs the new contrary indicator?  This past week they forecast that Copper will decline to $1.80.  It is currently at $2.15.  I don’t have my own opinion on it right now.  But, just off the cuff, I would rather be a buyer today than a seller.  Remember, buy low, sell high.  Selling low isn’t a great strategy.  But, hey they get paid the big bucks and I do my forecasting for free as a hobby:)

Regarding Social Mood….most stock indices hit new highs last week.  This continues to suggest they believe Hillary will win and not much will happen.  Trump could also win, but Congress would be split so again not much will happen.  The market is saying we are comfortable that not much will happen, regardless of who wins.

Just a quick update….

MID-SUMMER UPDATE AND PLEASE FOLLOW VENEZUELA

July 12, 2016 – I hope everyone had a great 4th of July and are enjoying their Summer – daily massacres aside:(  It has been a hot and humid one in the South – those who know me, know I am hibernating until January:)

Real quick post this time.  Gold and Silver have been stronger than expected.  And Goldman Sachs is still waiting for $1100 on Gold by June – maybe they meant next June.  LOL

My simple prediction for Oil is – this decline should end around $40 give or take a buck or two.  Then I expect $60 next year and $90-$100 around 2018.  That simple.  I’ll continue to hold my Exxon through everything.

Soybeans have corrected a lot after breaking 12 cents.  I have no forecast on them right now other than my 20 cents for next Summer might need to be lowered to 19 cents.  Either would still be all-time records.

The USA stock market and bonds are at record highs.  They refuse to correct.  I think the World is simply saying we are the only safe haven.  Many stock markets are down over 25% already and no one here is aware of it.

I am pretty sure our real estate market is in a bubble that is gradually bursting.  It feels like we are exactly where where we were 10 years ago – except our economy is not nearly as strong today.  Imaginary money from the Fed has done wonders.  We are building apartments at 4x-5x our national population growth.  10 years ago we were building 5-10 years of houses each year.  Now it is 4-5 years of apartments each year.  You can figure out what will cause this downturn.

Italy should be on your radar as it gets real messy there soon.  Obviously, that will hurt the EU some more.

As for the Brexit, I believe this is an incredible time to buy anything and everything in England.  I think the FTSE has already recovered all of the decline from the first 2 days after the Brexit vote.  USA stocks have done likewise.  Real estate prices nationwide are down 20% (sounds like America November 2008-January 2009 when we declined 30% in those 3 months).  We will all continue to buy from England.  Nothing will change.  England and the EU will do just fine.  The Establishment told lies and used fear and still lost the vote.  Sounds like what is happening in America eh:)

Lastly, I cannot encourage you enough to please follow what is happening in Venezuela.  Do this daily, else weekly at worst.  Venezuela is going through what most every country in the World will go through one day – including the USA.  We just might be able to hold off the longest of everyone.  For those in The Stupid Generation (aka Millennials) who Felt The Bern, watch Venezuela to see what Socialism brings.  It is beyond scary over there.  Kids and teachers in food lines most days.  Most schools are closed.  Thieves rob people in the lines of their cell phones and whatever else they have.  Those who try to fight get killed and people don’t even blink.  They just keep their place in line and step over the corpses.  Coca-Cola stopped making Coke because of a sugar shortage.  Grocery stores are robbed as people have no food.  I am sure a million more stories are occurring.  There are lists of items they have run out of in Venezuela.  Search for those lists.  They give you an idea of what we should stock up on before we ever start our serious decline.  As I have mentioned before, keeping real cash at home is essential.  Our government and governments around the world are doing all they can to eliminate the use of cash.  When all is electronic they can freeze or take our money instantly.  Please, just follow the events in Venezuela.  No need to listen to me.  Watch reality unfold and you decide what you need to do to protect you and your family and friends.

The Dark Ages II (copyright) have begun for the World and it won’t be pretty.  But, at least we are still near the beginning when things are relatively good.  Enjoy all you have.

BTW, if anyone comes across any good web sites that are documenting what is happening in Venezuela, please email them to me.  I will share them in a future post.

EARLY SUMMER UPDATE

June 7, 2016 –  It has been over a month since I have posted, so figured I would update my analyses.

To date, everything has played out as projected.  The only item that has been frustrating is the stock market hasn’t started a 1500-2000 point decline.  Like golf, the markets must frustrate you so you never get comfortable playing them.

Before I get into specific, let me comment on the stock market.  The stock market is an immediate reflection of social mood.  And it has historically shown what is expected to occur 6 months into the future.   Thus, the results of the election in November has already been accounted for in stock prices.  Considering the market is near all-time highs and has rallied strongly since February, the public is saying there are no worries as to whether Clinton or Trump win (I am likely the only person in the country who has strongly favored both candidates and can’t lose regardless of who wins…albeit I prefer Trump so we can see if a non-politician can do something different).  Thus, you can ignore statements by anyone who says the economy or country will fall apart if one or the other candidate wins.  The public has already spoken and neither candidate’s election will negatively affect our country – at least thru this year.  As for 2017, we will need to see what happens re stock prices over the next 6 months.

In February, Goldman Sachs said Gold would be $1100 by May.  Instead, it hit just over $1300 as I forecast and last week just under $1200 as I also forecast.  My indicators suggest a decline to the $1160-$1200 range is still possible.  I am waiting for that to occur to get back in to the gold stocks (which are up over 130% this year!).

Oil amazingly hit my $50 target – and by June as I forecast.  That was a longshot back in February when oil was $26.  But, everyone was forecasting $20 or lower then, so you knew it had to go up.  I have no forecast for it right now.

Soybeans burst thru 11 cents this week.  12-13 cents is my forecast for this Summer.  ((Added Note on June 10th – Beans went thru 12 cents today.  15 cents appear to be the maximum target for the Summer)) 20 cents for next Summer is an even longer shot than my $50 oil forecast was.

As for the Auto Loan bubble bursting as I discussed early this year, Crooked Dimon has finally recognized such.  “Someone will get hurt in auto lending,” but not JPMorgan, Dimon, 60, said Thursday during an investor presentation in New York.  Of course, not Chase.  This coming from the most crooked CEO in the history of banking!  I lost track around $15-$20 Billion in trading losses and fines under the command of Crooked Dimon in the past 12 or so years!!!  If any of us had been involved in one of these criminal actions, we would have been escorted out of the bank in handcuffs.  Crooked Dimon is lucky he isn’t a CEO in China.  This is the same Crooked Dimon saying auto loans won’t hurt Chase, yet bad oil loans are killing it.  As the saying goes, if his lips are moving…

I was trying to wait for my next post to be about my new web site and blog.  However, that has taken longer to go live than I was planning.  Hopefully, in a week or two, my new web site on international appraisal review will be up and running.  I will obviously post here about it.

Good luck with your trades, investments, etc.  Keep a close eye on your real estate markets.  Many have started to turn down.  Apartments are weakening nationwide (occupancy actually topped a few years ago).  I just read that hotel occupancy rates this year are down.  Each market and property type is different.  Watch carefully and don’t wait for the press to say a bubble is occurring.  95%+ of markets turn down from regular tops never having got to bubble levels.  Bubbles are rare.  This time around the bubbles are Auto and Student Loans.  Not real estate.  But, yes a downturn in real estate has started.

Enjoy your Summer.