UPDATED AUGUST 3, 2020 – A few polls I have found to be most accurate came out this past week. In the National poll it appears that the contest is a tossup now. As I have thought about things, I believe my analysis that Biden has an automatic 7% lead in National polls might be a bit high as Trump will probably have an excessive lead in one or two states. Obviously, not to the degree Biden will have in CA and NY and IL. So, I am thinking Biden probably has an automatic 5%-6% lead in National polls. Thus, any such polls you see you can adjust downward by that amount to know what the real difference is in the states that will be somewhat closer. At a quick glance, I am not seeing any change in the Electoral count from that noted below.
UPDATED JULY 17, 2020 – I had a few minutes this evening to analyze all of the polls state-by-state. At this time, it looks like Trump has about 213 to 220 votes in the Electoral College. That means Biden is over 300 at this time. As a reminder, it takes 270 to win.
Also, as I mentioned in prior posts, the stock market is forecasting events 6 months in advance. As such, it is showing zero concern that the Socialists will win everything and be able to implement their programs.
I won’t spend time on the argument that the stock market no longer reflects reality and is simply a place that the trillions of dollars pumped into the system by The Fed have disconnected the V-shaped recovery in stocks from the likely W-shaped (or Verizon swoosh) recovery in the economy. I won’t argue against this hypothesis.
But, having played at the World’s Largest Casino for almost 50 years now, I have seen many events occur that were thought to change the relationship of stocks and the economy forever (e.g. options in the late 1970’s…followed by futures in the 1980’s….and even futures on options (!)….then computer trading…..on and on). I will wait to see how things play out over the next 1-2 years to see where we stand.
JULY 14, 2020 – With less than 4 months to the Election, it is time to start looking at various indicators to see what they are forecasting. Of course, these indicators will change over the next few months.
As I mentioned in earlier posts, a study going back 200+ years says that if the DOW 30 is above 23,377 on Election Eve, Trump has the odds in his favor to be re-elected. New information from this study indicates that if the DOW 30 is above 28,200, then Trump is basically a lock to win.
If you listen to the Fake News Media, then you would conclude Biden has already won. This is the norm for polls as the Socialists use them to try to demoralize the opposition. This has zero chance of occurring among Trump supporters. I have never seen a stronger group.
Besides people on the Right refusing to participate, the national polls are not relevant as we do not elect our President based on popular vote. Regardless of who wins the Election, Biden will win the popular vote. That is a done deal.
Biden is up 8%-10%+ in the national polls. However, California, New York, and a few other large states that Biden will win huge in will give him around 10 million votes (this is significantly larger than Clinton won by in 2016) more than Trump. Assuming voter turnout increases to say 140 million (was 136 million in 2016), then right there Biden has a 7% advantage. Thus, the real difference between the participants is about 1%-3% with Biden ahead right now.
Bettors (58% chance of Biden winning, 38% chance of Trump winning) indicate that Trump bottomed out in late June and has been gaining ground slowly since then. As usual, this Election will come down to 8-10 states and within those states it probably comes down to a few dozen counties. For the rest of us, our vote doesn’t make a big difference. But, please do go out and vote. Like 4 years ago, our country’s existence is literally at stake.
I will delve more into the Electoral count over the next few months.
That’s it for the Election for now.
As an aside, it would be nice if the country would just accept we are going to have 20 or 50 or 100 million people get infected by The ‘Vid and stop talking about it. But, that surely won’t happen. The stupid blame game will continue ad nauseum.
It sure would be nice if we would flight the flu this hard this Winter. It would be even nicer if we don’t have to hear on the news about every athlete or celebrity or politician getting a cold or the flu:) I care less which famous person gets The ‘Vid or flu or a cold. Just get it, get well, and live on.
Everyone stay safe. Godspeed.