Tag Archives: election

A FEW UPDATES

October 28, 2018 – First, prayers to the families and friends of those killed in Pittsburgh.  Another sad day for my brothers and sisters in God’s favored tribe.  Sadly, just another event of hostility against us that has occurred for over 3000 years.  (As an aside, just curious if anyone has heard any Democrats condemning Farrakhan for his Anti-Semitic rhetoric….or has Black Lives Matter hit the streets saying that Jewish Lives Matter…..let me know if either event occurs;) )

I have long said people are crazy if they go to church without carrying a gun or having armed guards in the church.  Soft targets will always be hit until they are hardened.

The other easy target that America won’t fix until a mass killing occurs is the check-in area of all airports.  Walk in at a rush period and many dozens can be taken out.  Thankfully, there are some armed guards there, but not near enough.

As Winston Churchill said, America always gets it right….after it has tried everything else:)

A few updates…..As mentioned in July, Coffee futures were heading below $1.00 and likely putting in a major bottom.  They did and are now around $1.20.  I am sure none of you played the move.  But, just good for me to watch the data and see it work out as projected.  Gold and Silver have begun their leg upward, too.

Election – At this time, I will go ahead and predict the Senate will end up 53 for GOP and 47 for Dems.  There certainly are some close races where a surprise or two could happen and the GOP end up with 52 or 54.  But, obviously nothing above 50 or 51 really matters….unless you can get all the way to 60.  That won’t be happening anytime soon.

I will likely wait til near Election Day to forecast the House.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

MY ELECTORAL GUESTIMATE

November 2, 2016 – Less than a week to Election Day and all of us will be glad when it is over:)  In 2012, I was able to correctly predict all 50 states and thus the exact electoral count for each candidate.  There will be no such luck this time around.  This is definitely an unique election.

I will update my count each day until election.  Right now it stands at:

11/2 – TRUMP – 275 ; CLINTON – 263  This depends solely on Colorado (9 votes) going to Trump.  At this time, Clinton is favored.  But, I think the ‘shy’ Trump supporters are enough to overcome the deficit.  If not, Clinton wins.  But, we have 6 days to go so we should know more before Election Day.  The interesting event that could happen is Trump wins Colorado, but loses Utah to the Mormon candidate.  Then no one gets 270 electoral votes!  I believe the House of Representatives then elects the President, which should be Trump as the HoR is Republican controlled.  More tomorrow…

11/3 – TRUMP – 279; CLINTON – 259  I have moved New Hampshire’s 4 votes to Trump.  Colorado is moving in the direction I expected, albeit Clinton still has a lead.  I heard one other person on TV last night also indicate that the election might come down to which way Colorado goes.  Albeit, based on my current numbers, Colorado can go to Clinton and Trump would still win 270-268.  Essentially this all comes down to how many Trump voters did not participate in the polls.  Like Brexit and the Colombia peace vote, the expectation is a significant number of Trump voters have not been counter.  We shall see…

11/4 – TRUMP – 279; CLINTON – 259  No change in the count today.  Albeit, New Hampshire and Arizona continue trending for Trump.  The fly in the ointment for Trump is now Florida which has trended back towards Clinton, although still in tossup land and in the area where I think the uncounted Trump voters can make up the difference.  Maine, Michigan, and Pennsylvania continue to trend away from Clinton.  But, she still holds enough of a lead to win all three.   The weekend should provide more information.

11/5 – TRUMP – 279; CLINTON – 259  No significant changes today.  Monday should give us all of the new significant data we need.  It is amazing that Pennsylvania is closer now than Colorado.  Albeit about the same.  Michigan and New Mexico continue to trend strongly towards Trump, but it might be too late for them to go red.  I assume not much new data will be out on Sunday, but will will see.

11/6 – TRUMP – 279; CLINTON – 259  Not much new data out, so no changes.  The only news was Comey’s 2nd letter to Congress.  This one likely won’t affect the results at this late hour.  Hopefully, tomorrow there will be a ton of new data that will basically give us a final opinion going into Election Day.

11/7 –  Finally, finally, the nightmare is almost over.  Albeit, knowing our luck, the results could carry into Wednesday….or longer.  Let’s hope not.  If this were a normal election, the data suggests the following final count:  CLINTON – 272; TRUMP – 266.  However, as there is a belief that a large number of Trump supporters have not been included in the polls.  Under this assumption, the final prediction is TRUMP – 279; CLINTON – 259.  The large amount of new data out today did not change anything.  The maximum I can see for Clinton is 316.  The 4 final tossups as I see it are Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire.    CD2 of Maine is also a tossup.  Trump must win all of these.  If any of these states in the East go to Clinton early, the election is over and we can all go to bed.  I think the odds of someone correctly predicting all 50 states this time around is about equal to getting all of the games right in the March Madness Tournament:)  Just remember, on November the 9th the Sun will rise once again….and onward we all will go.

11/9 – WOW!  We finally destroyed the establishment!  It is so great to see all of the media ask ‘How did we get it so wrong?’  Because you are part of the corrupt establishment!  And ignorant of how mad those of us who have been discriminated against for decades have become.  Being a white male and religious I can tell you what discrimination is!  Now it is our time….finally.  I didn’t think we had a chance to ever save this country from its horrible decline.  But, now we do.  One last hope.  I finally see a chance to save our country.    Now to get to work and do it.  Yes, I will be the sorest winner you have ever seen:)  It is time to end Political Correctness!  Let the fun begin….

A lesson in math for the world of those in to political correctness.  All we heard was how the Hispanic vote was up 100% in this state and that state.  Record numbers of voters.  Blah blah blah.  Well, the percentage of white voters was also up.  But, % is not important.  Whole numbers are.  e.g. in Florida, the early vote showed 400,000 more Hispanic voters.  But, there was over 1,000,000 more white voters.  I would rather make 1% interest on a billion dollars than 10% interest on $10,000!  Don’t ever forget the largest groups in anything you do.  Baby Boomers still rule this world and will until The Stupid Generation is into their middle ages.  The ignorance of the masses never ceases to amaze me.  But, thankfully it is so predictable as to make money off of their opinions is relatively easy.

Lastly, I may go crazy if I hear one more media person ask how this happened and say no one predicted this.  I did!  I did for 500+ days!  I did this past week.  You just have to know how to forecast.  The media and popular polls just don’t get it.  But, that is a good thing.

Remember, Deplorable Lives Matter!