Tag Archives: election

ELECTION, GOLD, & MANN’S EXPERIMENT

AUGUST 12, 2020 – For those who have read my newsletters or blogs or whatever over the years, you may recall me saying that Gold puts in a top when it starts going up and down $50 or $75 or more a day.  Commodity tops are like stock market bottoms – spikes.  Gold was down $200 yesterday and has rebounded $70 today.  Silver dropped 20% in a day.  These are indications a top is occurring.  The markets always like to surprise us.  But, over the past 50 years, this has been the pattern for Gold.

Recent polls show Biden ahead by about 4 to 6 points in the battleground states.  We can assume 1 to maybe 2 points are overstated because of the significant number of conservatives that refuse to participate in these polls (e.g. moi).  This advantage can go away in a few days.  In 2016, Trump basically pulled it out in the last 3 or 4 days as voters faced the reality of voting.  And it is apparent the October ‘Surprise’ will be approval of a vaccine.  I hope no one is surprised when that announcement occurs!  It is already a known fact as the 30,000 volunteers in Savannah got their shots in July and October is when the results come in.  All of the above aside, right now Biden is the clear favorite to win per the polls.  Also, these polls do not reflect the results of the DNC telling Sleepy Joe yesterday that he has chosen Kamala Harris to be his VP.  I am not sure that will have much affect as it has been known for a few weeks she was one of the two finalists and her being in California is overkill as Biden will win that state by about 30 points.

I see that over 80,000 businesses have closed for good.  This will increase significantly as we go through the remainder of the year in an essential shutdown of our economy.  This is a significant cleansing of businesses that were not adequately capitalized.  I would hope Americans would learn two lessons from this crisis, but i doubt they will:

  1.  Never, ever, ever go into debt.  I realized early in my career that income producing real estate that had no mortgage could survive most downturns.  It was the debt that cost property owners to lose their investments.  The same goes for people.  Almost anyone can get by just paying their rent, utilities, cell phone bill, etc.  My step-daughter figured that out years ago.  She just sold her farm and bought a house nearby for all cash.  If she loses her job, she can get by working a minimum wage job.  I am so proud of her accomplishing this during a pandemic of all things.  At least one person listened to me lol
  2.  This isn’t my advice.  We all have been told to have 3-6 months of expenses in savings.  Most of the 80,000 businesses that have closed would likely still be surviving if they had followed this advice.  Granted this crisis will go past 6 months for certain industries, so even this advice would not have helped everyone.  But, it would not have hurt anyone!  And, obviously, John Q. Public would always be in much better shape if they had 6 months of expenses in the bank.

Sadly, people and companies will not follow the above.  For one, it is very difficult in an ever slowing world economy.  Also, our economy is not designed for long-term survival….just for short-term excess profits.  A hundred years from now people will be studying how the excesses of the past 100 years occurred and will swear to not repeat our mistakes.  It will probably work until one century the third peak generation of all time will be doing exactly what we have done (The Roman Empire and Baby Boomers are the two all-time peaks if you were wondering).

Re my life experiment….a week ago I eliminated all social media from my life.  I deleted all news apps from my phone and laptop and no longer watch or read any news.  My family will tell me a news item now and then:(  So far it is amazing.  I pick up my cell phone and check email and then I look it and have nothing more to need it for…except to check the weather.  I used to spend hours on the thing…now I barely touch it.  It is so refreshing to not think about anything controversial.  After 55 years of fighting, this brain is ready to rest:)  I know how I will vote the rest of my life.  So, it dawned on me I don’t need to debate issues (fruitless nowadays anyway) and I don’t need to know what is going on outside my own bubble.  I will keep up with real estate and markets.  I have always made my decisions based on data and not news anyway.  Day 7 and counting….I might post down the road how this is working out.

A total side note….if you like country music, go to YouTube and check out Morgan Wade.  She hasn’t made it big, yet.  I saw her in concert before The ‘Vid shut things down.  She is all I listen to now.  ‘The Night’ is her signature song.  For those who can relate to the subject of the song, it is a strong message.  Maybe one decade the world will know how to better help those with this illness.  But, it won’t occur in time in my lifetime.

Everyone take care….please don’t send me news stories lol

Godspeed

The Mann

THE BEAUTIFUL STOCK MARKET DECLINE THIS WEEK

UPDATES AT BOTTOM….last one Morning of March 9

February 27, 2020 – I know, I am one of the few people that enjoy market declines.  But, I have always said I was born to deal with Bear Markets.  Bear Markets are when you invest for the upcoming Bull Market.

I was just thinking last week that nothing could stop this market and when I have always had those thoughts a top would occur.  Many indicators were at extreme readings and sure enough this decline was likely to occur.

Gold is in a toppy range because it started to move $50 a day.  Gold tops occur when gold gets very volatile.  This isn’t to say a move into the $1700s cannot occur.  Just saying that the time for a top has been activated.

As for the market, let me try to make this very clear – this decline is NOT about the coronavirus.  The stock market reflects social mood about events 6 months in the future – not today!  The first two quarters of 2020 should be just fine for companies.  The question to answer is what has spooked the market about July-September of this year???

The first thing that came to my mind was when is the Democratic National Convention occurring.  That is July 13-16th.  Who can be nominated that would shock the markets?  Wall Street would clearly be worried if Pocahontas was nominated – and wins in November.  I am not so sure they are worried about Bernie Sanders.  Maybe they are worried about a Sanders/Warren ticket?  Regardless of what will occur this Summer….just know that it will occur and it will be shocking.  So, unlock the masses, don’t be shocked when it occurs….whatever ‘it’ will be.

As for a dead cat bounce rally in the markets, today’s low was 25,752 in the DOW 30.  It is likely a lower figure will be hit on Friday since the markets closed at their lows.  Wherever this temporary bottom occurs, a rally of at least 1500 points should occur.  That is a minimum.  I can tell more once that rally is finally underway.

In the interim, hold on tight.  The November Election will have a larger effect on the market than the coronavirus.  Around April or May the markets should telling us how the Election will play out.

And don’t forget about 23,377 I discuss in a prior post.  10 days ago that seemed out of play.  All of a sudden, it is a figure to keep an eye on.

As for the beer virus, educate yourself as always.  Over 16,000 (maybe as high as 48,000) Americans have died this Winter already from the flu!!!  Coronavirus has been around since the 1960’s.  Lysol cans say it kills coronavirus (maybe not this new strain).  This is nothing new.  We do not have vaccines for ALL of the flu strains.  We simply guess at what ones might appear this Winter.  But, the strains we guess wrongly on will hit the masses.  Why would it be different with coronavirus.

Wash your hands and cover your mouth – simple logic for all of the time.  Oh, and don’t buy masks.  They won’t help at all.  Not even professional medical masks will help (unless you are a professional who knows how to wear them….and they say even then, it would have to be worn all of the time).  The Fake News Media always has an agenda.  Almost always that is a bad Agenda.  As always, educate yourself and ignore whatever the Fake News Media says.

UPDATE Evening of February 28, 2020 – That was a week for the ages!  Simply beautiful to look at the charts.

Today proved the masses wrong that think when stocks go down, gold goes up.  Gold had its worst day since 2013.  When people panic they sell everything….except T-Bonds which they run to for security.  T-Bonds are at record highs.  Which, of course, means there is only one way to go:)

It is doubtful today’s low of 24,681 is the low for this initial move.  But, if it is, a counter trend rally should carry to the 26,500-27,700 range.  But, first we have to see if Friday’s low hold.  Should be another interesting time next week, volatility will start to subside.

UPDATE Evening of March 2, 2020 – Well, the largest declines in history were followed by the largest rally in history today.  In one day, the DOW rallied to the target range noted above and closed at 26,703.  The markets do in a day or week what used to take months and years.  Amazing to watch.

Although I think most of this rally has already been achieved, I believe the market will become range bound for a week or two.  We need to simply settle down and let all of the indicators get back to being meaningful.  Time needs to unfold for awhile and projections will become fine tuned.  I am not a buyer at this time.  I want to let some time pass by and see where we stand.

As an aside, the markets are telling the Fed to cut rates by 75bp.  I suspect a 50bp cut will occur first as the additional 25bp might come into question over the next week or two.  100% of the time the Fed takes action AFTER the market has already made its move.  The Fed has NEVER taken preemptive action.

Update Evening of March 5th – The trading range is occurring. My initial target of 27,100 has now been hit almost to the dollar twice in the past few days.  No way I am thinking that will be the top of this rally.  The market is too volatile.  With more days in the books, it looks like 27,500 to 28,100 is a good range for the top of this rally to occur.  The scary part is when this rally ends the subsequent decline should be more than 5000 points.  I would say 8000 points would be likely.  That would tell me that come the end of Summer and beginning of Fall the markets expect a Trump loss to be a sure thing.  We shall see how this plays out.

More people died in the Nashville tornado than the coronavirus has killed in America.  Just a total joke to even be talking about the beer virus.  Godspeed to those in Nashville.

Update Morning of March 9th – And it looks like the 8,000 point decline is underway.  Hard to believe my projection of a top at 27100 was almost to the dollar.  But, oh well, I will wake it.  The Dow is down almost 2000 points at the opening.  That is what is called Wave 3 of 3 and the maximum velocity down.  Usually it means we are half way to where a bottom might form.  As I write, they just closed the markets for a 15-minute break.  This is the 1929 and 1987 Crashes all over again.

I went in to energy stocks big time this morning with oil down 25% today.  I will wait to invest more in a different industry once we start forming a bottom.  Buy on panics not at bubble tops.  Enjoy the ride folks.  Be patient.

19,100 is the early target for this 3rd Wave decline.

The Mann

SOCIONOMICS FORECAST UPDATE – 23,377, THE NUMBER TO WATCH

January 27, 2020 – As we are about a month in to the new year and the markets hit new highs last week, the only thing to say at this moment is the obvious – 1st and 2nd Quarter economic growth should be just fine.

The markets have no concerns.  Which is usually a sign of a top and something unexpected is about to occur….we shall see.  All of those experts that were predicting a recession a year ago sure look foolish….as usual.

A few months ago I addressed what Socionomics was forecasting for 2020 and the Election.  The key number to watch is 23,377 for the Dow 30 – If it is above that figure on October 31st, then Trump should win re-election.  Below that figure and he should lose re-election.

With the Dow around 29,000, the current expectation is re-election.  But, it will be October 31 that will be the date that matters.

I will update this as the year goes along.

The Mann