October 24, 2015 – Last week I attended the CRE 2015 Convention in Charlotte. As usual, the conference had a number of prominent speakers discussing significant issues affecting real estate.
If you have not heard of the CRE, I encourage you to visit their web site at www.CRE.org. Also, the 950+ members have tremendous experience in all facets of real estate. You should consider contacting them for your more difficult real property challenges.
Below is a list of items I took away from the presentations. I hope you find these of interest, also.
George R. Mann, CRE
The current immigration event in Europe should add about 1.5% to the European population
This immigration event should lower the average age of Europe – which is aging fast, just like the USA and other developed countries
25%-30% of population growth is due to immigration
Europe is considering lowering the quality of real estate construction – because it cannot afford quality! ((MANN – This supports my belief that the overall decline of our generations, starting with the Millennials and going forward, will result in a long-term decline in quality, intelligence, etc.))
In the USA, the median net worth of people under 35 years old is 8.5% lower than in 2000
In the USA, 15.5% of people under 35 years old work part-time – historically, that was 5.5%
Since 2008, the fastest growing countries by population have been Australia, New Zealand, and Israel
Germany has 80 million people and that will decline by 7 million over the next 50 years
Worldwide, 2.8 Billion (with a ‘B’!) people will move to the cities by the year 2050 !!!!!!!
Currently, there are 5.7 million job openings in the USA – the highest ever
WalMart operates under 65 different names in 28 countries
SuperCenters have replaced all but 650 of the original Discount Stores
There are now 656 Walmart Neighborhood Markets – approx. 40,000 square feet
16 ‘Expresses’ are being tested in North Carolina – approx. 15,000 square feet
Also, WalMart is testing grocery home shopping…you select and purchase your groceries online and then drive to the store and someone loads them in your car
WalMart remodels stores every 5 years
Meier remodels stores every 7-8 years
WalMart and Meier indicated stores cost $80-$130/sf to build. But, values were around $20-$30/sf !!! They were very clear that they know their actual costs and any associated leases have NOTHING to do with the value of real estate. ((MANN – Now, when will appraisers doing bank appraisals start appraising drug stores, auto stores, national restaurants, and so on correctly!!!))
Big Box buildings are simply a tool to sell product; they are not a real estate investment
Development is way down for big box users – e.g. Target was building 150 stores per year in 2006….only 5-10 in 2015; Walgreens was building 500 stores per year in 2006….0 in 2015
Amazon has had a huge affect on retail development
Current retail development is in the 200,000 to 300,000 sf range and are power centers with smaller large tenants than say Lowe’s or Home Depot
PetSmart is now moving towards freestanding properties
Distribution Warehouse will continue to do well due to eCommerce
A sale/leaseback is a financing transaction; nothing to do with market rent as it was not put on the market
Above market leases do NOT increase real estate value ((MANN – Per above, when will appraisers doing bank appraisals realize that the portion of value due to above market rent has to be labeled as Intangible Value or Bond Value or some such name? Of course, Banks need to be requesting such to make this clear themselves….I have only been doing that since the 1990’s!))
That’s it for the conference. Many people have asked me how to pronounce Qui Tam and what the heck it is.
I pronounce it like ‘Key’…so Key Tam. I see some dictionaries spell the sounding out as Kee Tam or Kwee Tam.
Obviously, the best way to explain what it is is to visit Wikipedia and other sites that Google comes up with. My attorney’s website also has some information – and, as you will see, they are likely the best Whistleblower Attorneys in the nation. I will be glad to introduce you to them. Just give me a yell.
Lastly, for those of you considering a Qui Tam case, please purchase The Whistleblower’s Handbook by Stephen Kohn. Like everything on Earth, it is available on Amazon. It answers every question you might have and provides invaluable instructions on what to do while still employed.
Til next time….