November 29, 2019 – I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
It has been a few months since I addressed what Socionomics was forecasting for 2020 and the Election.
The possible rally to a new high has occurred over the past few weeks. Originally, this was expected to occur in September. But, it was delayed until now. As noted over the Summer, whether the stock market top occurred then or was to occur at a later date, the 20%-25% Bear Market was still expected to follow. That should be what occurs over the first half of 2020.
The markets have forecast that the economy should do fine thru the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2020. It wasn’t too many months ago that everyone was talking about the recession that was starting.
If the Bear Market begins as forecast and takes us down to around 21,000 for the Dow 30, this would suggest a weak economy for the last half of 2020….and, a loss for President Trump.
The key number to watch is 23,377 for the Dow 30 – If it is above that figure next October 31st, then Trump will win re-election. Below that figure and he should lose re-election.
A decline to 21,000 by next Summer followed by the start of a Bull Market that will take us above the current all-time high, will make the 23,377 figure interesting next October. It would not surprise me to see us flirting with that level next October and making the forecast for the Election a toss-up til the very close of October 31st. All elections in America now seem to be a toss-up going into the voting day.
As of this very moment, I interpret the markets to be expecting a Trump loss. Right now, most of the articles I read expect him to win. Many Democrats say Trump will win. Most say it doesn’t matter who the Democratic candidate is. Three to six months from now I can see a total reversal with most people, including Republicans, saying Trump has no chance.
I will update this as we get into 2020.