Category Archives: Mann Overboard

After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.

Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl

THE ANTI-PC MAJORITY IS FIGHTING BACK

September 12, 2018 – Hopefully, you have noticed the increase in people that are accused of saying or doing something offensive fighting back and not apologizing.

A jewelry store in New Jersey put up a billboard with a man proposing to a woman and the man is kneeling (as we should when proposing, right guys:) ).  They did a take off of the NFL controversy.  The Alt-Left immediately accused them of being racist (and likely the other 3 or 4 words they throw at everyone they disagree with).  The store owner explained exactly what us normal people understood the billboard to represent and said he would not take it down.  ‘Business is business’ was his response.  Bravo!

Lexington, Virginia is hurting for visitors after The Red Hen restaurant chased Sarah Sanders out a few months ago.   Discriminating against anyone results in some kind of pain.  The Alt-Left is the least inclusive group of people in America and they are finding out the rest of us will make them pay for that.

An Australian newspaper ran a cartoon about Serena Williams hysterical accusation (afterall, both players are women!  so maybe Serena is saying she is really a man?) that the referee in her match was sexist.  Of course,  the cartoon was called racial (granted the referee is Hispanic, Serena is Black, and the other player is Asian!).  The newspaper said no it isn’t and we stick by it.  Yea!  If the snowflakes can’t take it, F*$% ’em.

The t-shirt I wears says ‘Political Correctness Offends Me!’ – and it does!  It offends the majority of people as the Alt-Left is finding out the hard way.

And of course, as we all knew, the Miss America pageant was watched by almost no one.  People have always, and will always, want to see beauty – whether it is in the opposite sex, animals in nature, nature itself, art, anywhere.  We were made to appreciate beauty.  The swimsuit part of the pageant is what guys want to see.  Women I have talked with say they too want to see it.  It doesn’t objectify women any more than when we see a muscular man in a weight-lifting contest or any pro sport or on a beach or a billboard.  I am sure if we had a Mr. America pageant women would want the guys walking around shirtless in a swimsuit.   Here are the pathetic results of the pageant….I will add more to this post as the fight continues.  I encourage everyone to give the middle finger to Political Correctness!

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/09/10/miss-america-pageant-dropped-swimsuit-competition-and-the-ratings-are-disastrous

 

THE TERM ‘WHITE PRIVILEGE’ IS RACIST AND HETEROPHOBIC

August 27, 2018 – It is time for journalists, reporters, and others in general to start being fired immediately for using the phrase ‘white privilege.’  It is no different, and maybe even worse, than terms considered to be racist, homophobic, sexist, or any other Alt-Left term thrown on the world of deplorables.

Saying that people should be punished for the success of their ancestors and themselves is blatant racism.  And since it is assumed to be straight, and likely Christian, whites, then it is heterophobic, too.  Probably religousphobic.  This might be aimed at males only, which would add sexist to the list.

In the fight against all of these labels for discrimination, the phrase white privilege must be banned.  Unlike the N-word which apparently can only be used by colored people (no, I refused to accept the memo about that word…albeit white is a color as are the colors people label Asians and Native American Indians….we all have a color), white privilege is not acceptable among white people or any people at all.

All racism must cease.  Not just some racism.  I have found this to be a main difference between Democrats (I was one for 50+ years) and Republicans – Republicans do not want any kind of racism or sexism or such to exist.  Everyone is equal is what this country is built on.  Democrats want groups of people to have special rights…they are ok with discrimination against groups of people (not just whites either….it is ok to discriminate against Asians, too)….etc.  And like the Nazis, they throw the label of what they truly are on the other side as a distraction – which works to a degree because part of their Party is the Fake News Media.

It is time to start trashing people for using this phrase just as is done with the N-word and other supposedly offensive words.  Do NOT accept anyone using the phrase white privilege.  Use social media to do to them what the Left does to people they say are racists, sexist, etc.  Fair is fair.

As an aside, it is good to see the #MeTooIsAFarce movement exposed for what it truly is – a way to grab money 20 or 30 years after an alleged event took place.  It was great to see #RoseMcGowanIsAHypocrite’s co-hort exposed for being a pedophile!  Why isn’t she facing criminal charges?  She should have to register as a sex offender for the rest of her life.  How beautifully ironic that in a movement about money it was her that had to pay the money to her victim:)  That is the epitomy of your karma ran over your dogma.

((September 6, 2018 – Bella Thorne has added her name to those condemning the #MeToo movement.  She said – “I’m disgusted. No longer want to be apart of the #metoo moment,” Thorne, 20, tweeted. “Jimmy was a young kid. This is gross.”  The former Disney actress added that, “If this is what the me too movement is going to be about now I’m not here for it. … Victim shaming. Just awful.”))

Lastly, someone please tell Alyssa Milano, and other Hollywood elitists, to just STFU.  Essentially, if they say something, we must do the opposite.  Don’t they understand the general population despises them and what they say?  It likely doesn’t matter to them as they just need to hear themselves speak and try to stay in the spotlight.  In a way it is best for them, and Pelosi and Schumer and Waters and such, to keep speaking….the more they say, the more motivated the Right is to keep the Alt-Left out of power.

Two shootings after high school football games in Florida already this year!  Another ‘mass’ (mislabeled as ‘only’ 3 people died…I think it takes 4 or 5 to hit that label…how sick is it that we have such defined!) shooting in Jacksonville.  Why won’t David Hogg stop this!  It is his fault!  If it weren’t for David Hogg antagonizing people with guns, these crimes would not happen!  And he wants to run for Congress in 7 years when he is 25 years old.  By then he will have so much blood on his hands no one will vote for him.

Of course, Democrat politicians come out with their clichés – this has to stop…enough!….this generation has gone thru so much….blah blah bah.  Cry me a damn river.

What, prior generations didn’t go thru this and a lot more?  They sure as hell did.  Talk to Baby Boomers about their high school friends graduating and going off to get killed or maimed in Vietnam.  Probably more died in a week in Vietnam than have in all school massacres combined!

Add the assassinations of 1968, Watergate, the 1991 Iraq War, The S&L Crisis, on and on.  That is life snowflakes.  As they say, suck it up buttercup.  Stop your complaining and concentrate on being a success in life….be kind….love your family and friends….complaining is a waste of time and energy.  Especially when you don’t even know what is your complaining about!

EARLY & BRIEF MID-TERM ELECTION PREDICTIONS

August 15, 2018 – I haven’t really changed my projections over the past year or so.  Just figured I would start working on nailing them down as we get closer.

Essentially, I see the GOP gaining seats in the Senate.  That seems like a 100% certainty since the Dems have almost all of the seats up for grabs.  They have a lot of seats to lose.

Regarding the House, the bottomline is I predict the GOP will hold control.  Based on current polls, I would say there is as much as a 50% chance (maybe higher) that the GOP gains seats!  i.e. they add to the +23 advantage they have.

I suspect I am the only one out there saying the above.  I just am not seeing how everyone is predicting the Dems can take the House and maybe even the Senate.  But, then that is exactly what the Fake News Media has been doing for decades – putting out inflated polls in favor of the Dems and constant stories declaring a Dem victory.  Their plan has always been to have the opposition voters give up hope and not vote.

They were wrong in 2016, as I predicted.  Right now, I think they will be even more wrong in 2018.

But, primaries are still going on, so it is difficult to have major certainty.  Although, if I shouldn’t use 100% for predictions, I will say there is currently a 99% chance the GOP will maintain control of both houses of Congress.

More as I take time to delve into the individual races….just wanted to get in writing my early predictions.

Remember – Spend Forward, Use Forward!

IT’S THE END OF THE 1ST AMENDMENT AND I FEEL …WELL NOT FINE…

August 12, 2018 – With credit obviously given to R.E.M.

Oh to be back in the 1980’s when we had Freedom of (An Honest, Unbiased) Press and Freedom of Speech.  Fast forward 30 years later and we have neither.

The Fake News Media started their own downfall at least 10 years ago and have undergone a total transformation into the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party.  They have lost their 1st Amendment support and any right to protection (yes, that includes physically).

In the past 2 years, we have quickly lost the right to free speech.  There was a time when you had the right to say something I disagree with and vice versa.  That is no longer the case.

The Unite to Right rally in DC had Lyft and Uber and local restaurants declare they would not serve members of that white supremacist group.  Jeff Sessions eats at a restaurant in Houston  and that restaurant gets bashed and has to apologize for serving him dinner.  As the owner said, our job is to serve and we do not care about his politics.  Exactly!

Let me digress a minute and remind readers that I am Jewish.  White supremacists want to kill me and my brethren.  I am no supporter obviously.  100% of all white people that I have met don’t want anything to do with white supremacists.  Unlike what the Fake News Media wants you to believe, white supremacists have long been marginalized.  ((Only 20 of them showed up at their rally in DC.  There were probably 100x as many whites counter protesting.)) Their numbers are miniscule.  Albeit, one is one too many.  They have no power.  David Duke is probably the most notorious person and let me know what he has accomplished in life.  And all of that considered, I still will fight for those groups to have the right to free speech….to have parades and gatherings (yes, legal requirements for all such events are fine and needed)….to be served at retail establishments as long as they (just like any of us) are not threatening to the employees or other patrons.  I know that if they aren’t given free speech and equal rights, then one day other groups won’t either.  If terrorist groups like Antifa and Black Lives Matter can speak and protest, then others must be allowed to, also.  The ironic thing is every one of these groups want to eradicate me and my tribe…..oh well, the end of this existence has already occurred and my tribe is the last one standing:)  We get the last laugh, so no need to worry today about this minutae.

So, if the entire Left is going to refuse service to people they disagree with, they must remember that works both ways.  The baker who refused to make a wedding cake for two heterophobes (fka as LGBs) was definitely right not to do so in the logic of the Left.  Under this logic, heterophobes should expect other places of service to refuse them service – gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, and so on.

In the end, we will have segregation in the USA again.  This time it will be divided by ideology.  How ironic that both ideologies are now fully inclusive of people of all colors and both sexes (yes, the Right has people of all colors, unlike what the Fake News Media likes to promote…and yes, there are and will always be just 2 sexes, too).  So, at a time of full inclusivity, we have two totally exclusive ideologies.  Can we all say WTF together:)

I will say that the Right is open to hearing all ideas and debating the issues and so on.  Having been part of the Left for 50+ years, I know for a fact it is not inclusive, not open to opposing viewpoints, etc.  No freedom of speech on the Left.

Our Second Civil War is going to be interesting to watch….or participate in.  As the Alt-Left continues to poke the bear they bring us closer to war….

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

LEASE-UP FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED BUILDINGS – A DEBATE YET TO BE SETTLED

August 9, 2018 – Over my 30+ year career, this question has come up every few years.  When performing the Income Approach for a vacant or owner-occupied building (same thing), should there be discounting for the time and cost to lease it up?

My short answer is – Yes.  However, I would say 99% of appraisers do not make such a deduction.  Why not?

A few notes before I summarize a great response from an appraiser who does make the deduction.

First, America’s definition of Market Value assumes a sale occurs.  Therefore, an owner-occupied property is vacant when it sells.  That occupant moves out so either a new owner occupant can move in or third-party tenants can move in.  I have long argued that EVERY house/condo in America sells vacant – regardless if the owner occupies it right up to closing or it is physically vacant beforehand.  Of course, rental properties are the exception.

Second, the Income Approach assumes an investor owns the property and will lease it up to stabilization to third-party tenants.  The Income Approach does not assume owner occupancy!

Therefore, a vacant or owner-occupied property has to be leased up to obtain stabilization that is assumed in the direct cap method of the Income Approach.  Lease-up is not free and instantaneous that often.  Below is the summarized response that was shared with me.

As always, I welcome your thoughts.  Unlike our cultural and political world, differing opinions are welcome and will not be called ‘tone deaf’ or racist or some kind of phobic and so on:)  If I get enough comments, I will do a follow up post.

(Oh, let me add that the Sales Comparison Approach will depend on what sales are used.  If the comps were 100% vacant and/or owner-occupied, then the SCA already reflects such discounting for lease-up.  If the comps were partially or 100% leased, then….hmmmmm….)

(Second oh….all of this is needed to determine one of the 3 highest & best use conclusion items – type of occupancy.  Sometimes it is Owner Occupancy and other times it is Third-Party Tenants via an Investor owning the property.)

OK, finally to the Anonymous Appraiser Reply:

  1.  For the purpose of our analysis, owner-occupied space is presumed vacant and subject to deductions to reach stabilized occupancy in the “As Is” Market Value.
  2. FIRREA requires appraisers to “Analyze and report appropriate deductions and discounts for proposed construction or renovation, partially leased buildings, non-market lease terms, and tract developments with unsold units.”
  3. The present value of all costs necessary to achieve stabilized occupancy (including rent loss, leasing commissions, concessions, tenant improvements, rehabilitation costs, and/or profit loss) incurred during the lease-up period must be considered in developing the “As Is” Market Value conclusion.
  4. ((In this particular appraisal, )) The sales utilized in the Sales Comparison Approach were all vacant or owner-occupied; therefore, no lease-up adjustment was applied to the Sales Comparison Approach.

I agree with this logic.  Even for non-FIRREA appraisals.

What does the market do?  Well, that is answered in the Sales Comparison Approach as prices for vacant and/or owner-occupied properties reflect how an owner values the property or an investor values it knowing s/he has to find a tenant(s).

Thoughts….

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

TWO OF THE DUMBEST ALT-LEFT SIGNS/ARGUMENTS

August 7, 2018 – For years (remember, I was a Democrat for the first 50 of my almost 54 years), I have had to listen to an extremely dumb argument and see a really dumb statement on protest signs.

Dumb Argument – Women protesters in regard to abortion love to scream that the government needs to stay out of their bodies – most using the p-word, of course.  It is their bodies and only women know how to make the decision regarding abortions.

Excuse me for taking biology before the Alt-Left came up with 71 types of gender, but as I recall, it takes a man’s sperm to impregnate the woman’s egg.  Does that not indicate that the baby-to-be belongs half to the woman and half to the man?

I sure know that if I got my girlfriend or wife pregnant that would be MY baby!  At a minimum, it is OUR baby.  But, it sure as hell is NOT her baby!  No abortion decision should be made without the man’s agreeing to whatever that decision is.  This is not a woman-only issue.  I will never understand or accept that stupid argument.

Of course, I am talking about a consenting pregnancy.  Not rape, incest, etc.  Not where the woman’s life is at risk.  There are several situations where it should be a woman-only decision.  To think I was Pro-Choice my whole life….now Pro-Life.  Millions of murders just finally got to me I guess.

Stupid Sign – I think I will explode if I ever see the sign ‘We Are All Immigrants’ again!  I am NOT an immigrant.  My parents were not immigrants.  My grandparents were not immigrants.  I am a CITIZEN.  My ancestors were CITIZENS.  None of them immigrated here.

I have traced my wife’s ancestors back to being on current USA soil in 1755.  Likely before that.  Not even they were immigrants!  They were English citizens living over here.  They were here BEFORE America existed!  They were natives you might say.

There should be a law against stupid protect signs LOL

I guess I could start ranting about the Fake News Media and their pitiful attempt to hide behind the 1st Amendment as an excuse for them to exist.  Freedom of Press is different from Freedom of Fake News Press!  You don’t have the right to be biased…to publish erroneous and unsupported articles…..and to then say this is ok because somehow it will save our democracy (which of course we are not a democracy, but I digress…).  The Founding Fathers despised the press, but knew that an honest press would help make the government transparent.  That is all they should do.  No fake stories.  No bias.  The current Fake News Media is simply the Democratic Party.  They are not free press.  They are an owned and biased press!

I am not arguing that Fox News or some other outlets are the honest, unbiased press the 1st Amendment is intended to protect.  Just stating that I do not believe the Fake News Media is free press any longer.  Lastly, yes I believe the current press is an enemy of the people.  They are not protecting our republic.  In fact, they are killing it.  And why they think they are special and deserve immunity from being attacked is laughable.  They are no better than the people that Antifa and other liberals attack.  In this country we are all equal – even to being attacked by people who don’t like us.  OK, I guess I went ahead and ranted.  Yes, I feel better LOL

Tone Deaf – Lastly, whenever someone is called tone deaf, realize that what they said must be right.  Only easily offended, snowflake-type people call something tone deaf.  And what a stupid phrase anyway.  Do all you can to be called this so that this attack on humor and free speech and the right to voice your dislike for something and so on never takes hold.  As much as they don’t like what you say or do, it is your right to say or do something that could offend someone.  The way to make your day is to offend someone…go enjoy your day! :)

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

THE LEFT CANNOT DRAW THE LINES WHERE IT WANTS!

July 30, 2018 – Just too funny today.   I was reading about a MALE in Canada who got tired of being discriminated against and paying higher car insurance than women.  So, he had his birth certificate changed to FEMALE and ‘identified’ as a woman.  He reapplied and now pays the lower insurance rate!!!

Of course, the Alt-Left goes ballistic and accuses him of fraud and everything else.  I would guess he has now become every phobic and ist that they throw on people they disagree with.  The Heterophobic  community (aka LGB – there is no T or Q or whatever else they want to add as those are not sexual orientations) says he is being disrespectful.

Heck just because people like Bruce Jenner decide to dress up and act like the opposite sex every day of the year instead of just Halloween, that can never change their sex.  Why is David any different from Bruce?  Who has the right to decide what ‘identifying’ as a female means?  I’ll answer, that no one.  Especially not the Alt-Left and Heterophobic community.

I do know if I ever applied for a job again I would identify myself as a minority female!  Would love to see a company not hire me:)  Talk about guaranteed discrimination against me:)  I seriously don’t know why anyone nowadays would not apply and identify as a double or triple minority.

Another interesting story put out by the Fake News Media was about a couple of guys who complained that American Airlines (I think it was, might be wrong) separated them so that a couple (I assume that still means a man and woman) could sit together.  This raises a ton of questions:

  1.  How do we know the two guys were heterophobic?  Were they wearing rainbow shirts that said I am into deviant sex?  Did they blurt it out or were they asked?
  2. How do we know that one or both of them were not women dressed up and acting as men?
  3. How do we know they simply weren’t brothers?
  4. How do we know the couple were heterosexuals?  Were they wearing shirts that said I am into normal sex?
  5. How do we know they weren’t a guy and another guy who dresses and acts as a woman?

So many questions, so many stupid Alt-Lefters.

One of my friends was at a night club and sent me a video of Stupid Generation people dancing to a Hall & Oates song!  This made me wonder…..will they try to claim that Hall & Oates is ‘their’ band.  Like they try to claim the pound sign is now a hash tag (what the heck is that?).  Or a travel trailer is now a tiny house.   Or an efficiency apartment is a small apartment.  On and on they think they discovered something totally new.  So maybe this band is now #HAO :)  Will they have them remake their hit ‘She’s A Maneater’ and sing it as ‘Gender Neutral is a Gender Neutral Eater’???  Just asking….

It has dawned on me that The Stupid Generation is the first generation in over 60 years not to have their own music.  Past generations have had rock & roll, disco, new wave, grunge, rap, hip hop, dance, and a few others I might have missed.  Country has survived them all, as have jazz and blues and a few others.  But, when you think about The Stupid Generation they have nothing.  Many stars like Beyoncé and Jay-Z are from the prior generation.  Taylor Swift is country turned pop.  Iggy Azalea and other major artists are most likely classified as pop.  No wonder they have to dance to Hall & Oates.  They don’t have their own music to dance to.

Lastly, for Demi Lovato, Sorry, Not Sorry:)  Put out a smart ass song and it can come back to bite you sweetheart!  People call her brave and strong.  Seems more like weak and cowardly to me.  You have everything in the World and can’t control your addictions regardless of the amount of support friends and family give you.  Sounds weak to me.  Plus, she is two years away from the 27 Club…..hang in there kiddo and don’t be sorry….or don’t be not sorry.

Godspeed everyone….and remember my motto – Spend Forward, Use Forward!

Feel free to send me your unused, unwanted plastic straws:)  Fewer plastic straws will apparently save the world….

 

OIL & GOLD FORECASTS UPDATED

July 23, 2018 – My last forecast on oil was the Fall of 2016 when it was around $50 per barrel.  Before that, it was early 2016 when it broke down to its low of $26.  I just recently reviewed the charts and see a fairly clear pattern.

So, a quick mention of my observations.  As you might recall in early 2016 as oil plummeted, Goldman Sachs and others were calling for $20 and even $10.  Everyone was saying we were drowning in oil.  Storage tanks nationwide were near capacity.  As I said then, that is all bullish news, not bearish news!  I went long Exxon and an oil ETF and all has been good since then.

Oil has been up and down thru $70 recently.  It is about double what I made my investments at and almost triple its low.  Just more proof that the fundamentals of supply and demand are not relevant.  Commodity traders set prices and they will move every commodity the way they so desire.

My readings of the long-term charts suggest oil prices should continue their bullish trend in to 2021.  It is more difficult to forecast prices.  But, generally, prices should range from $70 and higher thru 2021.  That is not to say there won’t be interim downturns that take it lower – like is currently happening.  In fact, short-term, the downside risk is quite high.

Beyond 2021, the next major low is forecast to occur in 2023.  The last two major lows occurred between $10 and $30 and were part of 80% bear market declines.  I do hope to be on the sidelines before that occurs again!

And now we wait 3-5 years to see how things play out….

GOLD – As for gold, the indicators are as bullish as they were in late 2015/early 2016 when I bought in heavily.  At around $1220 an ounce for gold and $15.50 an ounce for silver, the future should be up for awhile – a year, two, I don’t know at this point.  I just know this is a major buying opportunity, per the indicators.  Gold never has got to the $1450 area I have been looking for….this might be the move that gets us there.

Like oil, we shall see….

Lastly, not that any of you play Coffee futures, but…..it looks like Coffee futures may break below $1.00 and put in a final major low and start upward for quite awhile.  What it does mean is if you buy coffee at a supermarket, continue to enjoy the low prices while you can :)

DAVID HOGG IS NOT HANDS OFF; JUST A BRAINWASHED PUNK!

April 3, 2018 – It is good to see others attack this low-life, scum of a kid David Hogg.  Just because he is 17yo and survived a massacre doesn’t make him hands off.  The real world is stomping a hole in his butt and he deserves it.

Welcome to the war Ted Nugent!  Others will keep joining.

https://www.aol.com/article/entertainment/2018/04/03/ted-nugent-doubles-down-on-attack-of-parkland-survivor-david-hogg/23401610/

Kyle Kashuv from the some high school is supporting our Constitution.  After going to a gun range with his father last week (April 20th), the school administration and Broward Coward Police pulled him out of class (!) on the 23rd and questioned him about the gun he used at the range.  Told him he has too good of grades to be doing what he is doing (what is that, supporting the Constitution!).

This is exactly what the Nazis would do to an innocent person with a different viewpoint.  Every day the Left shows itself to be a reincarnation of the Nazis (which is a Socialist movement, like Bernie favors).

REVISIONS MADE TO TITLE XI OF FIRREA

April 2, 2018 (UPDATED) – The Agencies have finally released ‘The Final Rule’ for updates to FIRREA.  A copy of the document can be found at:

https://www.fdic.gov/news/board/2018/2018-03-20-notice-sum-c-fr.pdf

The main change is increasing the de minimus level for commercial real estate transactions from $250,000 to $500,000.  Although this might seem significant, it is basically an adjustment for inflation from the last change to $250,000 in 1994.

Also, the definition of ‘commercial real estate transaction’ has been updated.

The changes are not in effect until published in the Federal Register,  I will update this post when this occurs.  UPDATE – This document is now live as it is in the Federal Register.

Financial institutions should update their appraisal/evaluation policies accordingly.