Category Archives: Mann Overboard

After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.

Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl

RELIGIOUS QUESTION – WOULD LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU

March 20, 2019 – For those who are religious, I am looking for your insights into the following.

I have read several situations where followers of Islam have told persons like Thomas Jefferson and others that if you are not a believer in Islam you either must convert or be killed.  I will assume those actual quotes from Muslims to others are accurate and true.  If not, please show me what their religion actually says about non-Muslims.

OK, so assuming everyone that is not Muslim is an enemy of Muslims, then how do you deal with the fact that that makes Muslims the enemy of Christians and Jews (also Buddhists and every other religion)?

How can you say that Muslims are not our enemy and must be eradicated by the time Jerusalem descends from the Heavens?  Or converted, which is unlikely as far as we can see right now.

Forget Thou Shall Not Kill.  We know humans cannot and will not abide by that Commandment.

Love everyone as God wants us to.  That sounds good.  But, when told directly by the enemy that unless you convert to Islam you will die, loving that person doesn’t seem like a good plan:)

How do you reconcile all of this.

For 1500 years the war has raged.  It does not seem like peace is possible given that one religion is all or nothing.  The final solution appears to be extermination of followers of one religion or the other.

As I ponder this, I would love to hear from others about how they reconcile all of this.  The older I get the less I have figured out….the less I know:)

The Mann

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

FINALLY A LAWSUIT ABOUT AN UNAPPROVED ABORTION

March 6, 2019 – My question is what took so long for a guy to file such a lawsuit?!

Not that I think we need another million kids born each year in America.  But, I have never understood why the abortion decision wasn’t a mandatory both parties have to approve for it to be done.

Afterall, couples are all the time saying ‘we’ are pregnant.  In divorces, women want child support because the kid(s) is the (ex-)husband’s, too.  Biologically, it takes a man to make a baby.

The only argument women have for solely making the abortion decision is ‘it’s my body.’  Only women carry babies.  When men carry babies, then they can have a say.  All of this is just words in comparison to the actual fact that a baby takes a man and woman to create.  A baby belongs to both parties.  An unborn baby to be exact.

Lastly, if a woman doesn’t want to have to deal with getting the biological father’s approval to abort their baby, then don’t do anything that might cause a pregnancy!  No, accidents do not happen.  Like people who don’t want to take any chance of getting a DUI and therefore do not have a single drink….the same actions can be taken to have 0% chance of getting pregnant.

This should be an interesting case to follow….

https://www.foxnews.com/us/alabama-teen-sues-abortion-clinic-on-behalf-of-aborted-child-alarming-pro-choice-leaders

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

CARABILITY – CAR SCORE

March 4, 2019 – For those that also think the walkability score that has been going around is stupid, I have invented the Carability Score.  This is simply calculated as 101 minus the Walkability Score.

For example, my house has the impressive Walkability Score of 1 !  Therefore, my Carability Score is 101 minus 1 or 100.  A perfect score!

I have not copyrighted this term, so feel free to use it in your reports:)

Also, please continue to send me ways to enlarge my carbon footprint.  I am doing all I can to leave a giant carbon footprint with my name on it for future archaeologists to find:)

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

GOLDMAN SACHS – THE ULTIMATE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR

February 28, 2019 – Some may remember about 3 years ago when Gold was around $1100 and I was buying it that Goldman Sachs was forecasting a significant decline.

In the past week, Gold hit the high end of my current target range closing at $1347 on February 20th.  Goldman Sachs is now bullish on Gold and forecasting it to hit $1425.  Ahhhh, bullish right at the top.  Good to see it.

Now for the decline to below $1250….(by March 1, Gold has already gone below $1300)

The stock market made an extremely rare ‘V-shaped’ bottom on December 24th.  It has nearly recovered all of its losses.  The indication is that 3rd Quarter GDP should recover nicely from a low figure in the 2nd Quarter.  1st Quarter GDP was announced at a still strong 2.6% today.  I would expect to see it revised downward a bit in the future.

Hats off to my United Method Church for voting this week to maintain God’s Word and maintain that homosexuality is a sin.  The heterophobes are of course hating like crazy (afterall, their hatred is so becoming of religious people:) ) and lying that gays have been kicked out of the Church.  The heterophobe movement wants to take over everything.

I still haven’t heard one person overcome what 1 Corinthians 6:9 says….and they can’t!  That passage closes the case on God’s view of the lifestyle.  Of course, those who believe in God’s Word are sexist, biased, racist, probably even white supremacists, and so on.  Too funny how sinners want the world to change instead of them changing to not sin:)  The human species has always been weak.

As I have researched this subject on the web, I came across a great term to describe the attack on Christian Churches – Gay Revisionist Theology.  Darn accurate.

Godspeed

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

A NICE WIN FOR ZILLOW

February 12, 2019 – The following article details a major court victory for Zillow.  This is great to see.  Zillow is needed as an alternative to NAR.

Zillow has been right on target for the last 3 houses that I have owned.  It has been nice to see the monthly change and ebb and flow of value.  Obviously others have had not seen the accuracy that I have encountered.  Of course, the same occurs with actual real estate appraisals, too:)

https://cookcountyrecord.com/stories/511770943-appeals-panel-zillow-s-zestimate-online-home-value-estimations-just-opinion-not-illegal-appraisals

INTERESTING MARKET AHEAD

UPDATED February 1, 2019 – Gold hit $1326 this week.  Right in the middle of the target range.  A top could be in place.  Albeit, one indicator suggests it might occur over the next week or two.  If I were a trader, I would sell and stand aside for the decline to around $1200 – early figure, that I will update as the decline evolves.

Treasury Bonds look like they are into a major decline which means higher interest rates ahead.

The Dollar is still in the early stages of its decline.  Which means the Euro is in the early stages of its advance.

So far, all is on schedule.  The stock market should be at a top and ready for a decent decline.

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January 28, 2019 – Did anyone notice that the market was up about 14% while the Government Shutdown!  Impressive.  If they had only kept the government shut for the rest of the year, we would all be rich:)

This rally has likely run its course.  14% in a month is excessive.  The question is whether the upcoming decline will be just a correction in a new bull market or the next leg down in a major bear market.

If it is a bear market, the upcoming decline will make December look mild.  That is SCARY!

If a new bull market has started, the decline should bottom around the December 24 low in late February.  It might hold above that low a bit, though.

This is the position where you let it play out and then invest accordingly.

The dollar is down from a month ago as predicted.  But, a much larger decline is straight ahead.

After a month of struggling with $1300, gold finally edged above it on Friday.  So, it is now in the $1300-$1350 topping range.

In a world that seems to be in chaos, all is going as planned.

Once in awhile I analyze strange markets for friends.  Recently it was Australia.  I will put my forecast in writing so I can see how it plays out.  I am expecting the Aussie stock market to go up 10%-15% this year and maybe into next.  Followed by a 50% decline in the 2020’s.

The Aussie Dollar is around 72 cents to the USD.  I expect it to increase to 90-95 cents over the next few years.  Then a decline to 75-80 cents.  Followed by a major rally to above par with the US Dollar sometime in the 2020’s.  My friend has 7 figures relying on this latter forecast so I sure hope I am right!

I hope your investments are doing well.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, QUICK FORECASTS, & THE BITCOIN CRASH

December 15, 2018 – Most importantly, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.  Safe travels if you are out and about this Season.

Just a quick note on the markets as the year winds down.

The stock market has forecast that the economy (I guess we can use GDP as its measurement) will remain strong in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and 1st Quarter of 2019.  However, the 2nd Quarter of 2019 should show a significant slowdown.  The 1st Quarter might reflect a bit of that slowdown.  The Bear Market is at its midpoint.  That doesn’t mean it will decline an amount equal to what it has already declined.  Just that it has traced out half the waves of a full decline.  2019 should be interesting.  Interesting is always good:)

The US Dollar is near a top and should decline for awhile.  The Euro will do the opposite, of course.

Gold has rallied nicely and should continue to $1300-$1350.  Then decline back to around $1200.  This action likely will take up most of next year.  A final push to the $1450 area will follow.  But, that now appears to be a ways off.  Silver has been sluggish.  But, it will follow gold when the time comes.

Lastly, a note on the crash of the cryptocurrencies.  A few of us started watching Bitcoin back when it was under $10.  In fact, when it was a below a $1 I was aware of it.  But, it took an increase in activity to keep it on the radar.  As with any bubble (and this is the greatest bubble in the history of the world….bigger than the South Sea Bubble…..Bitcoin went up over 633,000% (!) from bottom tick to top tick), the decline is usually around 80% to 99%+.

From its peak of $19,800-$20,250, Bitcoin is down 81%.  I can only imagine how many late investors are holding major losses.  Bitcoin is possibly the only significant survivor of this crash.  Most of the others will go to $0.01 and, thus, down over 99%.  So, far Ethereum (-93%), Bitcoin Cash (-98%), Litecoin (-94%), and several other are down well over 90%.  These will likely go down near 100% as they have no value at all.  Just people gambling on air.

The bottom target range for Bitcoin is $150 to $1900.  Yes, that is a bit wide, but for an item that has traded from $0.003 to $20,000, such is life.  The point is a decline of at least 50% from current levels is projected.  I might, only might, start looking at it as a buy between $500 and $800.  But, I doubt I will ever buy into again.  Afterall, it is just fake air with no value….no worth….nothing to actually own.  I would rather go back to trading Pork Belly futures:)

To give you some perspective of the insanity of a top….at the top of the Dot.Com Bubble companies (and the Smart Money) were trying to convince that the public that it was no longer important for a company to be profitable.  Companies just needed to generate revenues.  Never need to make a profit.  Of course, the masses buy into any lie at a bubble top.  The Smart Money sells everything to them and the crash occurs that takes many companies down 100%.  And the public loses big time.

Well in this great bubble of blockchain being the cure for everything….crypocurrencies being better than fiat currencies and gold and so on….companies issuing new stock in ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)….the ultimate sign of insanity was the ICO offering for a company named ‘Telegram.’  Forbes magazine reported the company “has  no viable business model, as it makes no money – on purpose.’  The principal of Telegram said “Making profits will never be an end-goal for Telegram.”  On May 4th, the ‘company’ raised $1.7 Billion, a record for ICOs.

So, there’s your ultimate insane top.  ‘People’ (I think morons and idiots would be better terms) invested $1.7 Billion in a ‘company’ with no plan at all, no plan to ever make money, etc.  They simply flushed $1.7 Billion down the toilet.  7 months later the company has not even issued its tokens.  The question should be why would so many people put their money into a sure loss situation?  At the top of a bubble the masses see no way at all that they can lose on an investment.  Thankfully, it is always that way.  The Smart Money needs someone to sell this junk to at the top.

Socionomics explains the above…..I am finally at the point where I will begin writing the final paper of my real estate career.  It will deal with Socionomics and real estate.  I have spent the past 3 years thinking about the topic and gathering books and articles.  Now to start writing it.  I expect it might take a year or more.  We shall see…

That is all for now.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

MONOPOLY FOR THE STUPID GENERATION – TOO FUNNY!

November 16, 2018 – First, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Travel safely.

This article is too funny:

http://fortune.com/2018/11/14/millennials-tell-hasbro-just-how-insulting-monopoly-for-millennials-really-is/

Most importantly, hats off to Hasbro for not caving in to the mobs.   The snowflakes need to laugh at themselves….albeit instead, they are trying to take away humor from all of us.

The posts are even funnier than the game.  Stupid Generation losers blaming the Baby Boomers for their low level in life.  Too funny.  Maybe if they worked instead of living at home playing video games they would have succeeded in life.

All that us Baby Boomers did was come after The Great Depression and World War II….we had it so easy:)  Poor little Stupid Generation has 9/11 and a financial crisis.  Oh those are just so tough to overcome:(  Cry me a river.  Remember, us Baby Boomers also overcame both of those….plus the Vietnam War, S&L Crisis, 20% inflation, 2 major assassinations in 1968, Watergate, on and on.  Imagine if we stayed home and complained about the world crapping on us.  Nope, we grabbed the world by the hoo-hahs and changed it to be the best it has been since the height of the Roman Empire.

Poor little snowflakes……I guess if people felt sorry for them, they suddenly would become successful.  Let me know how that works:)

In the interim, us Baby Boomers have another 20-40 years to rule the lives of The Stupid Generation.  We out number them 3-to-2.  Generation Z already outnumbers them, also.  They cannot change anything.  Just suffer a life of self pity.

It is so good to be part of the greatest generation since the Roman Empire.  And I am so glad we chose not to worry about future generations having it better than us.  They aren’t, they won’t, and they have shown they don’t deserve it.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

 

PREDICTION – 216-217 SEATS FOR THE DEMS – AND I WAS WRONG….

November 7, 2018 – For the most part, the election is over.  A few Senate seats and about a dozen House seats have yet to be called.

Lesson learned from all of this is that it is darn hard to predict individual House races.  Not really a surprise.  The lack of data makes it very difficult to forecast anything.  But, that is the same regardless of what you are trying to forecast.

In the end, I ended up about 50/50 on the 32 or so toss-up races.  Obviously, inadequate for a reasonably accurate forecast.  As of this writing, the Dems are at 223 seats.  They are likely to end up near 230.

Since I live to forecast, I will surely try this again next time.  But, not so sure I am any better than flipping a coin:)

Senate projections were a lot easier.  And that is expected, due to the huge amount of data available.  I think Senate races and the Presidential race are fairly easy to forecast – as long as you don’t rely on the inflated Left polls:)  They were horribly wrong again.

As of this writing, the GOP is at 52 seats and should end up with 53 for sure and might hit 54.  My forecast was on target.

I did not try to forecast the Governor races.  But, I think that is doable based on the large amount of data available.  I guess I will going forward.

Of course, I need to work on making money off these projections, eh:)

Onward we go….surprised (sarcasm intended) there weren’t protests in many cities about the House results:)  Obviously, Russia interfered in this election and helped divide our government.  No doubt my ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ and ‘Not My Speaker of the House!” shirts are going to sell well:)  And yes, you will see how civil the Right is versus the uncivil Left…..that is now an obvious fact.

Lastly, the scum reporter (used loosely) Acosta should be charged with assault for brushing that White House lady staffer’s arm away today.  Imagine if a Republican did that to a lady!

Remember, we do NOT have a free press any more.  They are not to be protected by the Constitution.  This is simply an arm of the Democratic Party.  They are the Enemy of the People because they no longer protect us by providing truthful information.  The 1st Amendment is there for a free press to provide the people with truthful information.  It is not there to protect a propaganda industry that publishes lies and biased opinions.  I simply want the facts (verified by several sources like they used to do) and I will take it from there.  This applies to ALL news companies – Left and Right.  Please bring back Walter Cronkite:)

I suppose in a week or so we will start to hear about 2020 campaigning….

October 31, 2018 – I have never tried to forecast the results for Senate or House of Representative elections.  Too many races to deal with.  But, with more and more data available, it is becoming easier to do.

Easy, that is, to forecast.  Still incredibly difficult to be accurate!

LAST UPDATE – 2PM EASTERN ELECTION DAY – My final count is a range of 211 to 222 for the Dems, with 216-217 being my ‘point’ forecast.  Just so darn close on a few contests. so I am cheating slightly and saying 216-217.  If I was asked which side of the range I would lean more towards, it would be the 211-212 area.  I do think we will not know who wins the House after tonight.  A few recounts might delay having an actual winner for a few weeks.

Unlike the ‘great forecasters’ out there (like 538 and whoever gets screen time) who are hedging with a wide range of 215 to 260, I think it can be narrowed to a 10 seat range.  These forecasters remind me of the old saying about what the market will do tomorrow – if it doesn’t go up, it might do down:)  Get some guts guys.  Speaking of which, we need some women to step up and run these poll firms and forecasts.

As an aside, I wonder if Repubs lose the House if there will be shirts out saying ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ :)  Heh heh.  I doubt it.  Unlike the Left, the Right can accept losing with class and style and civility.

Lastly, the site I voted at said they were up 500% in voting from the last mid-term election.  One thing can be said for Trump, he has got us Americans off our lazy asses and out to vote!!!  We have taken this right for granted for too long.  Good to see everyone having their say – peacefully, at the ballot box.

((Back to the original post…)) I might tweak these figures before Election Day, but for now my predictions are as follows:

The Democrats should end up with 209 to 220 seats.  With 218 being the winning number, the Dems do have a chance to take control of the House.  Maybe not as much chance as the Fake News Media wants you to believe – but, that is what the FNM has been doing for decades….inflating poll numbers for the Left so as to deflate the hopes of the Right.  Thankfully, the public now sees that and puts no faith in polls.

As everyone likes a single figure prediction, I will go with 215 seats for the Dems.  That leaves the House in GOP control.

Of course, if my prediction comes true, liberal heads will explode the day after Election and Russia will be to blame, et al:)  Maybe Rosie and Streisand and others will finally move to Canada, also!

If the Dems do get 218+, we simply place everything on hold until 2020.  Nothing will get done in DC.  Impeachment won’t work – just like it didn’t with Clinton.  Trump will continue to fill Federal judge seats as only the Senate is needed to approve those nominations.  Else, DC will be the normal mess we are used to.

Regardless of your stance, please do go out and vote.  That is the one thing we personally control.  Take advantage of it.

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

A FEW UPDATES

October 28, 2018 – First, prayers to the families and friends of those killed in Pittsburgh.  Another sad day for my brothers and sisters in God’s favored tribe.  Sadly, just another event of hostility against us that has occurred for over 3000 years.  (As an aside, just curious if anyone has heard any Democrats condemning Farrakhan for his Anti-Semitic rhetoric….or has Black Lives Matter hit the streets saying that Jewish Lives Matter…..let me know if either event occurs;) )

I have long said people are crazy if they go to church without carrying a gun or having armed guards in the church.  Soft targets will always be hit until they are hardened.

The other easy target that America won’t fix until a mass killing occurs is the check-in area of all airports.  Walk in at a rush period and many dozens can be taken out.  Thankfully, there are some armed guards there, but not near enough.

As Winston Churchill said, America always gets it right….after it has tried everything else:)

A few updates…..As mentioned in July, Coffee futures were heading below $1.00 and likely putting in a major bottom.  They did and are now around $1.20.  I am sure none of you played the move.  But, just good for me to watch the data and see it work out as projected.  Gold and Silver have begun their leg upward, too.

Election – At this time, I will go ahead and predict the Senate will end up 53 for GOP and 47 for Dems.  There certainly are some close races where a surprise or two could happen and the GOP end up with 52 or 54.  But, obviously nothing above 50 or 51 really matters….unless you can get all the way to 60.  That won’t be happening anytime soon.

I will likely wait til near Election Day to forecast the House.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!