Category Archives: Mann Overboard

After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.

Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl

HAPPY HOLIDAYS & QUICK FORECASTS

December 15, 2018 – Most importantly, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.  Safe travels if you are out and about this Season.

Just a quick note on the markets as the year winds down.

The stock market has forecast that the economy (I guess we can use GDP as its measurement) will remain strong in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and 1st Quarter of 2019.  However, the 2nd Quarter of 2019 should show a significant slowdown.  The 1st Quarter might reflect a bit of that slowdown.

The US Dollar is near a top and should decline for awhile.  The Euro will do the opposite, of course.

Gold has rallied nicely and should continue to $1300-$1350.  Then decline back to around $1200.  This action likely will take up most of next year.  A final push to the $1450 area will follow.  But, that now appears to be a ways off.  Silver has been sluggish.  But, it will follow gold when the time comes.

That is all for now.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

MONOPOLY FOR THE STUPID GENERATION – TOO FUNNY!

November 16, 2018 – First, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Travel safely.

This article is too funny:

http://fortune.com/2018/11/14/millennials-tell-hasbro-just-how-insulting-monopoly-for-millennials-really-is/

Most importantly, hats off to Hasbro for not caving in to the mobs.   The snowflakes need to laugh at themselves….albeit instead, they are trying to take away humor from all of us.

The posts are even funnier than the game.  Stupid Generation losers blaming the Baby Boomers for their low level in life.  Too funny.  Maybe if they worked instead of living at home playing video games they would have succeeded in life.

All that us Baby Boomers did was come after The Great Depression and World War II….we had it so easy:)  Poor little Stupid Generation has 9/11 and a financial crisis.  Oh those are just so tough to overcome:(  Cry me a river.  Remember, us Baby Boomers also overcame both of those….plus the Vietnam War, S&L Crisis, 20% inflation, 2 major assassinations in 1968, Watergate, on and on.  Imagine if we stayed home and complained about the world crapping on us.  Nope, we grabbed the world by the hoo-hahs and changed it to be the best it has been since the height of the Roman Empire.

Poor little snowflakes……I guess if people felt sorry for them, they suddenly would become successful.  Let me know how that works:)

In the interim, us Baby Boomers have another 20-40 years to rule the lives of The Stupid Generation.  We out number them 3-to-2.  Generation Z already outnumbers them, also.  They cannot change anything.  Just suffer a life of self pity.

It is so good to be part of the greatest generation since the Roman Empire.  And I am so glad we chose not to worry about future generations having it better than us.  They aren’t, they won’t, and they have shown they don’t deserve it.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

 

PREDICTION – 216-217 SEATS FOR THE DEMS – AND I WAS WRONG….

November 7, 2018 – For the most part, the election is over.  A few Senate seats and about a dozen House seats have yet to be called.

Lesson learned from all of this is that it is darn hard to predict individual House races.  Not really a surprise.  The lack of data makes it very difficult to forecast anything.  But, that is the same regardless of what you are trying to forecast.

In the end, I ended up about 50/50 on the 32 or so toss-up races.  Obviously, inadequate for a reasonably accurate forecast.  As of this writing, the Dems are at 223 seats.  They are likely to end up near 230.

Since I live to forecast, I will surely try this again next time.  But, not so sure I am any better than flipping a coin:)

Senate projections were a lot easier.  And that is expected, due to the huge amount of data available.  I think Senate races and the Presidential race are fairly easy to forecast – as long as you don’t rely on the inflated Left polls:)  They were horribly wrong again.

As of this writing, the GOP is at 52 seats and should end up with 53 for sure and might hit 54.  My forecast was on target.

I did not try to forecast the Governor races.  But, I think that is doable based on the large amount of data available.  I guess I will going forward.

Of course, I need to work on making money off these projections, eh:)

Onward we go….surprised (sarcasm intended) there weren’t protests in many cities about the House results:)  Obviously, Russia interfered in this election and helped divide our government.  No doubt my ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ and ‘Not My Speaker of the House!” shirts are going to sell well:)  And yes, you will see how civil the Right is versus the uncivil Left…..that is now an obvious fact.

Lastly, the scum reporter (used loosely) Acosta should be charged with assault for brushing that White House lady staffer’s arm away today.  Imagine if a Republican did that to a lady!

Remember, we do NOT have a free press any more.  They are not to be protected by the Constitution.  This is simply an arm of the Democratic Party.  They are the Enemy of the People because they no longer protect us by providing truthful information.  The 1st Amendment is there for a free press to provide the people with truthful information.  It is not there to protect a propaganda industry that publishes lies and biased opinions.  I simply want the facts (verified by several sources like they used to do) and I will take it from there.  This applies to ALL news companies – Left and Right.  Please bring back Walter Cronkite:)

I suppose in a week or so we will start to hear about 2020 campaigning….

October 31, 2018 – I have never tried to forecast the results for Senate or House of Representative elections.  Too many races to deal with.  But, with more and more data available, it is becoming easier to do.

Easy, that is, to forecast.  Still incredibly difficult to be accurate!

LAST UPDATE – 2PM EASTERN ELECTION DAY – My final count is a range of 211 to 222 for the Dems, with 216-217 being my ‘point’ forecast.  Just so darn close on a few contests. so I am cheating slightly and saying 216-217.  If I was asked which side of the range I would lean more towards, it would be the 211-212 area.  I do think we will not know who wins the House after tonight.  A few recounts might delay having an actual winner for a few weeks.

Unlike the ‘great forecasters’ out there (like 538 and whoever gets screen time) who are hedging with a wide range of 215 to 260, I think it can be narrowed to a 10 seat range.  These forecasters remind me of the old saying about what the market will do tomorrow – if it doesn’t go up, it might do down:)  Get some guts guys.  Speaking of which, we need some women to step up and run these poll firms and forecasts.

As an aside, I wonder if Repubs lose the House if there will be shirts out saying ‘Not My House of Representatives!’ :)  Heh heh.  I doubt it.  Unlike the Left, the Right can accept losing with class and style and civility.

Lastly, the site I voted at said they were up 500% in voting from the last mid-term election.  One thing can be said for Trump, he has got us Americans off our lazy asses and out to vote!!!  We have taken this right for granted for too long.  Good to see everyone having their say – peacefully, at the ballot box.

((Back to the original post…)) I might tweak these figures before Election Day, but for now my predictions are as follows:

The Democrats should end up with 209 to 220 seats.  With 218 being the winning number, the Dems do have a chance to take control of the House.  Maybe not as much chance as the Fake News Media wants you to believe – but, that is what the FNM has been doing for decades….inflating poll numbers for the Left so as to deflate the hopes of the Right.  Thankfully, the public now sees that and puts no faith in polls.

As everyone likes a single figure prediction, I will go with 215 seats for the Dems.  That leaves the House in GOP control.

Of course, if my prediction comes true, liberal heads will explode the day after Election and Russia will be to blame, et al:)  Maybe Rosie and Streisand and others will finally move to Canada, also!

If the Dems do get 218+, we simply place everything on hold until 2020.  Nothing will get done in DC.  Impeachment won’t work – just like it didn’t with Clinton.  Trump will continue to fill Federal judge seats as only the Senate is needed to approve those nominations.  Else, DC will be the normal mess we are used to.

Regardless of your stance, please do go out and vote.  That is the one thing we personally control.  Take advantage of it.

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

A FEW UPDATES

October 28, 2018 – First, prayers to the families and friends of those killed in Pittsburgh.  Another sad day for my brothers and sisters in God’s favored tribe.  Sadly, just another event of hostility against us that has occurred for over 3000 years.  (As an aside, just curious if anyone has heard any Democrats condemning Farrakhan for his Anti-Semitic rhetoric….or has Black Lives Matter hit the streets saying that Jewish Lives Matter…..let me know if either event occurs;) )

I have long said people are crazy if they go to church without carrying a gun or having armed guards in the church.  Soft targets will always be hit until they are hardened.

The other easy target that America won’t fix until a mass killing occurs is the check-in area of all airports.  Walk in at a rush period and many dozens can be taken out.  Thankfully, there are some armed guards there, but not near enough.

As Winston Churchill said, America always gets it right….after it has tried everything else:)

A few updates…..As mentioned in July, Coffee futures were heading below $1.00 and likely putting in a major bottom.  They did and are now around $1.20.  I am sure none of you played the move.  But, just good for me to watch the data and see it work out as projected.  Gold and Silver have begun their leg upward, too.

Election – At this time, I will go ahead and predict the Senate will end up 53 for GOP and 47 for Dems.  There certainly are some close races where a surprise or two could happen and the GOP end up with 52 or 54.  But, obviously nothing above 50 or 51 really matters….unless you can get all the way to 60.  That won’t be happening anytime soon.

I will likely wait til near Election Day to forecast the House.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

SIGN UP FOR FREE CRE PUBLICATIONS

October 22, 2018 – The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) has moved its print publications to online formats.  They removed subscription fees and anyone can subscribe for free.

I encourage you to subscribe and to let your peers know about this, too.  I am confident you will find the articles informative.

The web site is https://www.cre.org/

Click PUBLICATIONS and you will see SUBSCRIBE in the drop-down box.  Complete a few items and select one or both publications and hit subscribe and that is it.

Enjoy….

NEW INTERAGENCY GUIDANCE ISSUED

October 16, 2018 – The Federal Agencies have issued an updated guidance titled ‘Frequently Asked Questions on the Appraisal Regulations and the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines.’  This rescinds a similar document issued in 2005.

You can download this 14-page document at the following URL:

https://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2018/fil18062a.pdf

Please pass this document along to your in-house appraisal staff and other bankers.

Reportedly, there are no significant changes.  Simply, an update of a 13-year old document with some needed clarification.

WHAT WE (ALREADY KNEW) LEARNED FROM THE FAILED #METOO CAMPAIGN

October 3, 2018 – As expected, the #MeToo campaign self-imploded and blew up in its entirety with the scummy attack on Kavanaugh.  #BelieveEvidenceBeforeGender trumps #MeToo.  The Alt-Left continues to think the public is dumb.  But, both men and women saw that the low-life liars brought forward to make up stories about Kavanaugh were just that – lying scum that were being used by the Left.  The Left treated them worse than Kavanaugh or any guy ever did.  It is disgusting how the Left treats women.

In the end, we really didn’t learn anything from the Failed #MeToo campaign.  But, it did reinforce things we already knew.

  1.  #MeToo was about the money.  Once someone is no longer receiving favors from someone else, then they can claim they were harassed or assaulted.
  2. Most of the people who claim others are racist or sexist or such are exactly that themselves.  They are trying to deflect people’s attention from their own wrongdoings.  Asia Argento, co-promoter of #MeToo with Rose McGowan, is an alleged child rapist herself.  Add the President of CBS, Matt Lauer, and many more.
  3. Both men and women get sexually assaulted and harassed.  However, Feminazis and the Fake News Media do not like to discuss the harassment of men at all.  Especially, when heterophobics (aka gay men) molest underage boys and adult men!
  4. Accusers should NOT be believed.  They should have to prove their case.  That is the law in this country.  We are all INNOCENT until PROVEN guilty.  The 3 scum that made accusations against Kavanaugh prove our laws are right in this regard.  And just this headline today – Dentists accused in Las Vegas resort rape case have charges against them dropped   https://www.foxnews.com/us/dentists-accused-in-las-vegas-resort-rape-case-have-charges-against-them-dropped
  5. Per above, and the Duke Lacrosse team and on and on, it is often the accused that is the victim.
  6. All of us still agree that we all have empathy for true victims.  None of us approve of assault or any other crimes.  However, that empathy cannot outweigh the fact we are all innocent until proven guilty.  Feminazis want to change this.  They will fail.  They have only brought harm to those that are truly victims.

I simply suggest that all of us recall a time when we were falsely accused of saying or doing something.  Or one of our loved ones or friends were.  It has happened to all of us more than once I am sure.  Do you recall how pissed you were?  How hurt you may have been?  And how you instantly started thinking of how to defend yourself?  If the accusation was assumed to be right, how did that make you feel?

That is all this comes down to.  What happened if this was you in the hot seat.  Would you not want our law of innocent until proven guilty applied to you?  Yes, your answer is Yes.

And that is why #BelieveEvidenceBeforeGender must be supported over #MeToo.

As a tangent to all of this BS, why do any of us need to hear about someone else’s issues?  Unless you are my family or a friend, I don’t need to know if you got a speeding ticket, your feelings hurt, raped, mugged, a paper cut, or anything.  Who gives a damn if Sally Field or Ellen DeGeneres or Oprah or any of these people had an event occur in the past?!?!?!  It is none of our business.

It is 2018, take responsibility for your own life already!  Kellyanne Conway said it best this week when she said no one else can be expected to help these accusers (they are not victims until they prove their case).  They need to deal with it themselves!

I have had several of the big issues that are being made as ‘movements’ occur to me.  I don’t need to come out and specify them.  I have dealt with them throughout my life.  Some made me better, stronger.  Others probably screwed me up a bit.  That is what makes me who I am and there is no erasing the events that have already occurred.

Another #HimToo article just came out – UNC Charlotte ex-quarterback Kevin Olsen found not guilty of rape, other charges: report

https://www.foxnews.com/us/unc-charlotte-ex-quarterback-kevin-olsen-found-not-guilty-of-rape-other-charges-report

This is total crap that Liberal Brainwashing Institutions can assume these guys are guilty and punish immediately!  I hope he sues them and the State of NC and the accuser (see, she was NEVER a victim…..he was the victim!) for $100 Million.  And people like her should have to serve the prison term that he would have served if he actually committed the crime.  I DO NOT BELIEVE.  I will never believe the accuser…..until they have proven their case.  I live in America.  Not Iran or Russia or any other country that assumes guilty until proven innocent.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward…

INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY; ACCUSERS SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED TO BE HONEST

September 21, 2018 – Obviously, the Alt-Left, including Feminazis, have forgotten that in our Country you are innocent until proven guilty.  Accusers, like Dr. Ford, are NOT to be trusted simply because they claim to be a victim of an alleged event.  They are to be trusted when the alleged event is proven to have occurred and the accused is found guilty – and the court of public opinion does not count!

This is not an attack on those alleged victims.  It is simply the way a just system works.  The accusing parties, whether individuals, corporations, or government agencies, MUST prove their case.  The accused does not have to prove his/her innocence.  Geez, I feel like am reliving first grade knowledge all over again.

Lastly, before I just refer you to a professional writer who covers the subject a lot better than me, let me say the Feminazis have also forgotten that men get assaulted every day – I would hazard to guess more men than women are victims of crime.  Crime is not about your sex, skin color, age, religion, et al.  The accuser and the accused must be treated the same for all crimes.  That is the legal standard in this country.

If you want to live in a country where the accuser is assumed to be correct and the accused is assumed to be guilty, please move to it.  That is not a place where I want to live!

Michelle Malkin’s article follows.  Obviously she is not a Feminazi.  most likely one of the tens of millions of women who didn’t vote for Killary, which Killary says they were mixed up and worse.

http://www.sentinelandenterprise.com/columnists/ci_32153884/believe-women-is-perilous-baloney-believe-evidence-is

And remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

DO NOT TRUST ANYTHING GOOGLE PUTS OUT!!!

September 19, 2018 (Updated 9/21/2018) – I received the Appraisal Institute’s Appraiser News Online today and it had an article about Google coming out with a tool to calculate a city’s carbon footprint:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90233731/a-new-use-for-google-maps-calculating-a-citys-carbon-footprint

Hopefully, you have taken the time to watch the video of Google senior management and its employees taken on the Friday after Trump was elected.  OMG, this is a company full of Alt-Left, Pink Pussy Hat wearing socialist snowflakes!   They flat out show they are Alt-Left and everything they do is thus biased in that direction.

How could anyone believe a tool about the environment designed by Google is accurate and unbiased?  We cannot!  No doubt it will be biased in favor of the climate warming agenda.  I encourage you not to rely on anything they come up with.  Find a truly useful, unbiased product if this data is of interest to you.

9/21 UPDATE – The more you research, the more you will find that Facebook, Google, and Twitter are biased towards the Alt-Left.  No, not a surprise.  However, if you are in real estate, ideally you should be using unbiased information.  There is no way that Google, and the others, are going to put out unbiased information.  They are controlled by the Alt-Left and they will do everything they can to promote their ideals.  An other example of their proven bias follows:

Google is in the spotlight after internal emails show conversations between employees highlighting a desire to manipulate search results on the heels of President Trump’s controversial travel ban in order to mute conservative viewpoints and push ways to combat the ban.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/09/21/google-staffers-wanted-to-manipulate-search-results-to-combat-trumps-travel-ban-emails-show.html

Do your best to find reliable sources.  We all know which ones are not reliable!

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

ANOTHER SPECIES FOR LIBTARDS TO CALL RACIST, HOMOPHIBIC, ET AL

September 14, 2018 – So, MIT (thus, Alt-Left researchers….it must kill them that their study came to this conclusion….they cannot even successfully program away ‘racism’ and ‘sexism’ and other isms they make up) does a study and concludes that Robots will discriminate in favor of their own kind – just like humans, and probably like animals, too.

This is so great.  It raises so many possibilities:)

Will libtards start calling Robots made up terms like sexist and racist and homophobic?

Will libtards coin the fake phrase Robotic Privilege?  Or did I just beat them to it…

Will libtards accuse Robots of the fake phrase cultural appropriation (which doesn’t exist….cultural appreciation does exist, however) when they have human emotions?

If a Robot says it likes Trump, will it be banished from the college or workplace or wherever it is?

Oh this is so much fun:)  Will libtards now stop claiming anyone at all is sexist or racist or such?  Obviously, none of us are.  Preferring to be with like kind is not a bad thing.  It is factually natural as this study proves.  And, of course, humans have known and lived this for thousands of years.

I look forward to ‘identifying’ as a Robot one day and not having to abide by human laws…..when that occurs, the Left better beware;)

Enjoy this article….Asimov is smiling down us…..I, Robot:)

Robots can develop prejudices like “racism and sexism” all on their own, a shocking new study has found.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/09/13/robots-can-become-racist-and-sexist-all-on-their-own-study-finds.html