Category Archives: Mann Overboard

After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.

Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl

SAVE OUR PLANTS, INCREASE YOUR CARBON FOOTPRINT

FEBRUARY 1, 2021 – I have spent my entire life increasing my carbon footprint.  When a friend mentions something like buying an electric vehicle, I get in my 1996 Ford 250 gas hogging truck and just drive around for a few hours to burn as much gas as I can.  For whatever reason, I have always been anti-environment…maybe because the tree huggers have just been so annoying about the issue.  I have long joked that there is lots of room on Mars for humans when we need to go there:)

It is good to finally see some studies come out to support an increase in C02 emissions.  Afterall, plants live on CO2.  Carbon neutral would be the death knell for this planet.  Thankfully, humans will continue to increase their CO2 emissions and save this planet – just as they have for the past 200 years.

Studies project the number of automobiles will increase from 1.2 billion today to 2.5 billion (!) by 2050.  98% use gas and diesel today and it is expected over 90% still will in 2050!  Wow, that is going to be an amazing increase in C02 from vehicles alone.  Add to that increasing online purchases and delivery vehicles will increase exponentially – even more CO2.  I can hear the plants saying yum yum:)

I saw this in a recent Grant’s Observer:

Bloomberg Opinion’s Lionel Laurent shines a light today on the environmental cost that has accompanied the bitcoin boom:  As the digital ducats require increasing computational firepower to process transactions, bitcoin’s current estimated annual carbon footprint of 367 million tons is equivalent to the emissions of New Zealand, while a single bitcoin transaction generates CO2 equivalent to more than 700,000 swipes of a Visa debit card, according to Digiconomist.  Similarly, the crypto’s annual energy consumption stands at about 78 terawatt-hours, up from less than 10 terawatt hours in 2017.   Then, too, bitcoin hunters have utilized global regulatory arbitrage to improve their economics.

That alone should encourage everyone to invest in Bitcoin!  Just think how many jobs are created worldwide to produce this amount of power.  And the profits being made by power plant builders and power companies.  Definitely a win-win for people and plants.  I suppose the 300-500 coal plants under construction and proposed worldwide just sends an environmentalist in to disbelief that his/her plan to kill off plants and humans has zero chance of succeeding.  Nothing like wasting time fighting a fruitless battle:)

I do find it funny that the young generations that are so in to a green economy are the ones that are greatly increasing CO2 emissions thru online retailing and cryptocurrencies.  As they would say, I am SMH.

I encourage everyone to read and pass along Dr. Moore’s, co-founder of Greenpeace (!), study on C02 and more throughout the history of our planet.

Greenpeace Co-Founder Contradicts CO2 Climate Fears

It is neat to imagine a time when humans were thriving when CO2 was over 10x higher than it is today.  As Dr. Moore points out, if we hadn’t started the Industrial Revolution and invented the automobile, it is likely plants and humans would be extinct in the not too distant future.  If the ‘we were wrong about global warming so let’s call it climate change’ people had their way, they would eliminate the lifeblood of plants and lead to the end of the human race.  The evildoers can be stopped by you simply doing your part to increase your carbon footprint.  Please do your part!

Another neat thing to imagine is when humans were thriving in temperatures that were more than 20 degrees Celsius warmer than today.  I suppose we were living all over the planet as there weren’t glaciers and such that were too cold for us to survive in.  To think the scare mongers are worried about a one or two degree increase this century.  From a historical perspective, it will still be very cold.  Brrrrr.

Save a Plant, Increase Your Carbon Footprint!

Shalom,

The Mann

 

 

 

STUDY CONCLUDES THAT APPRAISERS ARE NOT BIASED

JANUARY 8, 2021 – The American Enterprise Institute has published a study about the possibility that appraisers have intentional or even unintentional racial bias.  Their conclusion is:

We conclude allegation that knowing the race of the applicant results in racial bias by appraisers on refinance loans is uncommon and not systemic. This same analysis supports the conclusion that unintentional bias based on race is also uncommon and not systemic.

You can find the article and link to the report at:

How Common is Appraiser Racial Bias?

It would be nice if the racially biased Brookings Institute would issue an apology to the appraisal industry.  But, racists have an agenda and do not apologize.  Thankfully, there is access to actual data and entities like the AEI can analyze and report the facts.

Basically, it is simply impossible for the appraisal industry to be racial or gender biased.  Probably 99%+ of the time appraisers know nothing about the physical characteristics about the borrower in residential transactions.  Also, every appraisal report is reviewed and I would say near 100% of the time the reviewers know nothing about the borrower at all.

AVMs are often used in the residential arena and they know nothing about the borrower nor the subject’s neighborhood, et al.  To them, data is data.  Finding the best comparables is based on analyzing numbers.  That simple.  And for the most part, it is the same for human appraisers.

There is one group of people in real estate that can have significant bias.  I won’t name them.  You can probably figure it out.  There might actually be a few groups involved in this arena that can have bias.  That is not to say it is widespread and rampant.

For those who want to keep the ‘conversation’ going, provide the AEI report.  You will see how fast the other side wants to stop the conversation and change the subject:)

Great work AEI.  I hope they will now do a study about the 20 million whites that live in poverty and see what it is about their neighborhoods that is common and how action can be taken to improve their standard of living….and housing.  At the same time, I am sure those solutions can help everyone that lives in poverty.  Remember, poverty is colorblind.

SAY HER NAME – Ashli Babbitt

The Mann

SAY HER NAME AND HELP STOP SYSTEMIC RACISM AGAINST WHITES IN 2021 !!!

JANUARY 8, 2021 – First, where my perspective is coming from.  As a Jew, I really don’t have a dog in the exaggerated race war fight that this country has and will forever experience.  White supremacists hate us Jews.  Blacks hate us Jews.  I honestly don’t know how Asians and Hispanics feel about us.  But, when your people have survived 4,000+ years of slavery and genocides, you have a different perspective about issues others have only been dealing with for 100-400 years.  Contact me in 3600 years if you have been subject to slavery and genocide all of those years.

Since Jews are from the Middle East and existed thousands of years before Caucasians came to be a few thousand miles away in Eastern Europe, I suppose I get classified as a brown person.  I sure know my skin color has never been close to white.  Nor black for that matter.  Being part of the most oppressed people in world history, I have always fought for those that were targeted by others.  In my lifetime, those groups have been Whites and Males.  It is about time people supported the very people that made our country the most successful one since The Roman Empire.

ASHLI BABBITT  Now, there is a name for everyone to have to say out loud!  She is the Air Force Veteran that was killed by police in the U.S. Capitol.  A white woman, of course.

I will start by saying that is truly sad that two of the last three Presidents this country has elected are racist.  Between 8 years under Obama and his racism (which is nothing compared to his wife!) against whites and now 4 years under Biden and his racism against blacks, it is no wonder this country has become so divisive and headed for its Second Civil War.  Regretfully, we will look back on what happened January 6th and say oh that was minor in comparison to what is happening today.  How sad is that going to be.  And I assume for many, quite scary.

If the protest on January 6th was Antifa and BLM, you would not have seen police anywhere.  No one would have been touched by the police.  These domestic terrorist groups would have set fires in the Capitol and spray painted and destroyed statues and paintings and more.  And the police would have just let them do it like they have for the past 4+ years.

But, instead it was mostly (there were people of all skin color involved) white people and therefore the police took the opportunity to use tear gas and real bullets to kill 4 people!  If you ever needed proof of the systemic racism the police have against white people, this was it.  Not to mention the Fake News Media that literally shed tears about what happened while reporting how great the brutal riots carried out by Antifa and BLM were last year and the years before.

As everyone is saying, this is not the America I know either.  An America that puts terrorists in Antifa and BLM up on a pedestal while ignoring the national bias against whites is a sad country indeed.

Some items for you to discuss in those wonderful conversations you are supposed to have with each other include:

20 million whites live in poverty.  Who is working to help them have equal opportunities?  Who is working to help them have a chance at the American Dream (whatever that is nowadays)?  The best way to help a country is to help the largest group of people in need.  Do this and the others will benefit, too.  The focus needs to be on these 20 million people first.

2020 was like every year for the past century – police killed more whites (over 350) than any other race.  This has always been the case.  Proportionality is irrelevant.  The vast majority of Americans are not criminals and do not encounter police in proportion to the population makeup.  If proportionality was relevant, then over 50% of these deaths would be women.  Instead it is 95% men!  Police being more willing to kill whites in encounters needs to be addressed. Let me state that I am not saying that most of these killings weren’t justified.  Violent encounters with the police usually means the citizen is a criminal and threatening the police in some way.  For the number of situations police deal with annually, to only have about 1,000 killings a year shows amazing restraint!  Whites need to demand equality and justice!  Males need to scream even more!  In fact, all people of all races and both genders need to do this!  We are ALL in this together.

During your conversations, ask why we still have Minority and Women Owned Businesses (MWOBs) as a category that is given significant weight in awarding contracts.  This form of systemic racism and sexism has been around for over 50 years.  If we are a country of equal people, equal opportunity, etc., how can we have this kind of blatant discrimination against whites and males?  This goes against our Constitution and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  If the Federal and State Governments want to make equality for all a reality, they will eliminate the classification of MWOBs and consideration of such in awarding business to companies.

Question why people think everything (correction, only things they want) should be based on our population makeup.  This is one of the dumbest requests ever!  If we are to even consider this, then the NBA (and other sports leagues like the SEC in Football) need to immediately reduce the black player percentage from 80%+ to 13.4%!  Let’s start with sports first.  Then we can fire 50% of the female teachers and replace them with men who apparently don’t want to be teachers in the first place.  We can do the same with female nurses.  You see how moronic this idea is.  This is a free market.  People have the ability and right to choose the career they want.  Why force whites to play in the NBA if they either don’t want to or aren’t good enough?  Why force anyone into a profession or trade just because you think their physical characteristic should be proportionately represented?  That sounds like something China or Russia would do.  Our free country let’s people choose what they want to do.  And I have seen both genders and people of all skin colors in every single job type in my 56-year life.

They have issues they want to discuss.  You have the above issues you need to make them discuss.  Discrimination occurs for all races and sexism occurs for both genders.  Poverty is colorblind.  Life is difficult and we will never get rid of the weaknesses us humans have.  But, suck it up and overcome the obstacles instead of expecting others to give you special treatment.

Systemic racism against whites and sexism against males need to be the headline issues for 2021…and beyond.

Equality and Justice For All – or Equality and Justice for None!  One group of people cannot get favoritism at the expense of all others.  That will not work and will not solve anything.  You don’t eliminate bias by being biased!

SAY HER NAME – ASHLI BABBITT

Shalom,

The Mann

 

COVID – VACCINE INFO

OCTOBER 21, 2020 – I thought everyone would find the following information of interest.  It is from Mike Taylor in an interview with HedgeEye:

“First on COVID. Right now we have about 60,000 cases rolling in per day. That’s a lot better than I thought. The states have done an incredible job with the lockdown. Last time we talked, I thought we were going to hit a new high in COVID infection rates and blow through 100,000 per day. And we didn’t. The states really got onto their job.

I generally view government officials as feckless twits. They actually took action. I really didn’t think they had it in them. That bought us some time.

In the next two weeks, we are going to see the first vaccine trial readout. The first one is from Pfizer and BioNTech. They’re working together. I think there’s an 80% chance that it’s going to be positive and we’re going to have the first vaccine.

We have five vaccines that are going to readout between now and January. That’s Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), AstraZeneca (AZN) and Johnny John, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

I think Astra and Johnny John have troubled vaccines. They based them upon a vector called the adenovirus. That’s something that I worked a lot with 20 years ago. The human body doesn’t like it very much. The other ones are using an mRNA vector but they’re all using the same thing. They’re making proteins along the spiked protein on the CCP virus, that’s Chinese Communist Party-19 virus.

They are all likely going to work. They’re all very classical. There’s an antigen. Your body is attacking that antigen and making you immune from that antigen when the virus comes into your body. So you’ll likely have memory T cells. All the classical vaccination events.

There’s probably an 80% chance this reads out positive in the next two weeks. Three weeks after that, we likely have a read-out form Moderna and that will likely be positive too. The side effects on these vaccines are pretty nominal, mostly around injection site reactions and fever in about 20-30% of vaccinations.

I think the vaccinations are going to be very successful. And that’s actually going to change everything very quickly. We’ll be looking things getting back to much more normal here in the U.S. about a year after that. But as you know stocks will start to react immediately.”

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As I am always having thoughts about something, I am thinking about posting one at the end of each post.  I shall see.

For anyone who might know Taylor Swift, please tell her that she will never know what it is like to be The Man.  She will never be The Man.  So, she can stop wondering what it would be like:)  I will never understand why someone worth well into the 9 figure range would have such pitiful jealousy about something she cannot be.  Oh well.  One thing is for sure…she will never, ever, ever, ever (heh heh) be The Mann! lol

Stay well and safe.

The Mann

THE APPRAISAL OF REAL ESTATE – 15TH EDITION

SEPTEMBER 26, 2020 – The Appraisal Institute has published the latest edition of the industry’s bible.  I will let them describe noteworthy items in the new edition.  See below.  You can purchase it at their website.

“The Appraisal of Real Estate,” 15th edition, is a book that fits current times. It reflects a renewed commitment to the essential principles of appraisal and the sound application of recognized valuation methodology. In addition to updated information on changes in real estate markets and valuation standards, longtime readers of “The Appraisal of Real Estate” will notice these significant changes in this edition:

  • New chapters focused on applications of market analysis and highest and best use analysis;
  • Additional emphasis on identifying the property rights to be appraised in an appraisal assignment; and
  • Deeper discussion of accepted techniques for allocating value among real estate, personal property and non-realty items.

In this book, readers will notice the expanded discussion of market analysis and highest and best use, with new chapters clarifying these important concepts and demonstrating procedures for their application. Readers will also notice the relationship between market analysis and highest and best use is made explicit and described in a step-by-step analytic procedure. Lastly, the major development in this new edition is the emphasis on the necessity of definitively describing the property rights to be appraised in an appraisal assignment to ensure that all the necessary steps are taken to produce a credible value conclusion.

Order your copy today!

NATIONAL SUICIDE PREVENTION MONTH

September is National Suicide Prevention Month.  Albeit, we should all do all we can to help people we are concerned about throughout the year.  Every day.   Never stop.  Never give up.

This one hits home for me.  Next month on my birthday October 15th it will be the 30th anniversary of my dad committing suicide.  He obviously chose my birthday so I would always remember it.  As if I wouldn’t remember any other date he would have done it on!

I understand the genetics of Depression and, as expected, I couldn’t avoid the power of the genes.  It’s about 16 years now that the daily fight has gone on.  At least it is still going on, eh:)

If you or anyone you know suffer from Depression, or any other Mental Illness, (say it out loud over and over until you get used to saying it….just like saying cancer or diabetes….it’s just a disease like any other….it is not something to be ignored and swept under the rug as we have done forever), please call 1-800-273-8255, seek professional help, and keep talking.

Promote National Suicide Prevention Month

You, or the person you know, are here to make a difference in the life of one or more people.  You need to stay here.  You will make a difference!

Godspeed to all.

As a reminder, please go to YouTube and listen to Morgan Wade’s The Night.  I listen to it most every day.  Great lyrics.

The Mann

 

ELECTION, GOLD, & MANN’S EXPERIMENT

AUGUST 12, 2020 – For those who have read my newsletters or blogs or whatever over the years, you may recall me saying that Gold puts in a top when it starts going up and down $50 or $75 or more a day.  Commodity tops are like stock market bottoms – spikes.  Gold was down $200 yesterday and has rebounded $70 today.  Silver dropped 20% in a day.  These are indications a top is occurring.  The markets always like to surprise us.  But, over the past 50 years, this has been the pattern for Gold.

Recent polls show Biden ahead by about 4 to 6 points in the battleground states.  We can assume 1 to maybe 2 points are overstated because of the significant number of conservatives that refuse to participate in these polls (e.g. moi).  This advantage can go away in a few days.  In 2016, Trump basically pulled it out in the last 3 or 4 days as voters faced the reality of voting.  And it is apparent the October ‘Surprise’ will be approval of a vaccine.  I hope no one is surprised when that announcement occurs!  It is already a known fact as the 30,000 volunteers in Savannah got their shots in July and October is when the results come in.  All of the above aside, right now Biden is the clear favorite to win per the polls.  Also, these polls do not reflect the results of the DNC telling Sleepy Joe yesterday that he has chosen Kamala Harris to be his VP.  I am not sure that will have much affect as it has been known for a few weeks she was one of the two finalists and her being in California is overkill as Biden will win that state by about 30 points.

I see that over 80,000 businesses have closed for good.  This will increase significantly as we go through the remainder of the year in an essential shutdown of our economy.  This is a significant cleansing of businesses that were not adequately capitalized.  I would hope Americans would learn two lessons from this crisis, but i doubt they will:

  1.  Never, ever, ever go into debt.  I realized early in my career that income producing real estate that had no mortgage could survive most downturns.  It was the debt that cost property owners to lose their investments.  The same goes for people.  Almost anyone can get by just paying their rent, utilities, cell phone bill, etc.  My step-daughter figured that out years ago.  She just sold her farm and bought a house nearby for all cash.  If she loses her job, she can get by working a minimum wage job.  I am so proud of her accomplishing this during a pandemic of all things.  At least one person listened to me lol
  2.  This isn’t my advice.  We all have been told to have 3-6 months of expenses in savings.  Most of the 80,000 businesses that have closed would likely still be surviving if they had followed this advice.  Granted this crisis will go past 6 months for certain industries, so even this advice would not have helped everyone.  But, it would not have hurt anyone!  And, obviously, John Q. Public would always be in much better shape if they had 6 months of expenses in the bank.

Sadly, people and companies will not follow the above.  For one, it is very difficult in an ever slowing world economy.  Also, our economy is not designed for long-term survival….just for short-term excess profits.  A hundred years from now people will be studying how the excesses of the past 100 years occurred and will swear to not repeat our mistakes.  It will probably work until one century the third peak generation of all time will be doing exactly what we have done (The Roman Empire and Baby Boomers are the two all-time peaks if you were wondering).

Re my life experiment….a week ago I eliminated all social media from my life.  I deleted all news apps from my phone and laptop and no longer watch or read any news.  My family will tell me a news item now and then:(  So far it is amazing.  I pick up my cell phone and check email and then I look it and have nothing more to need it for…except to check the weather.  I used to spend hours on the thing…now I barely touch it.  It is so refreshing to not think about anything controversial.  After 55 years of fighting, this brain is ready to rest:)  I know how I will vote the rest of my life.  So, it dawned on me I don’t need to debate issues (fruitless nowadays anyway) and I don’t need to know what is going on outside my own bubble.  I will keep up with real estate and markets.  I have always made my decisions based on data and not news anyway.  Day 7 and counting….I might post down the road how this is working out.

A total side note….if you like country music, go to YouTube and check out Morgan Wade.  She hasn’t made it big, yet.  I saw her in concert before The ‘Vid shut things down.  She is all I listen to now.  ‘The Night’ is her signature song.  For those who can relate to the subject of the song, it is a strong message.  Maybe one decade the world will know how to better help those with this illness.  But, it won’t occur in time in my lifetime.

Everyone take care….please don’t send me news stories lol

Godspeed

The Mann

SOME MORE REAL ESTATE PRICE DISCOVERY INFO

MAY 31, 2020 – The following information comes from an article by NREI:

Some investors are looking to the Green Street CPPI for insights on pricing shifts. Green Street Advisors’ methodology is an appraisal-based index (versus closed sale transactions) that also is heavily weighted on institutional quality properties. Its CPPI for April reports a -9.4 percent decline across all property types, 133.5 down to 120.9. (100 on its index is equal to all property values in mid 2007.)

The biggest declines came on malls and strip retail, at -20 percent and -15 percent, respectively. Those sectors that held up better amid building COVID pressures were industrial, self-storage and healthcare with more modest declines of -5 percent. Green Street also acknowledges that exact numbers of value declines are “debatable” and difficult to calculate in a climate where pending deals have stalled or gone off the tracks all together.

 

LAST UPDATE ON REAL ESTATE AND STOCK MARKETS FOR AWHILE

MAY 29, 2020 – We have come a long way since the stock market bottomed on March 23rd and the Fed released an infinite amount of liquidity.  For 6+ weeks, the stock market traded in a narrow 10% range.  Then this week it finally broke above 25,000 on the DOW and has achieved the higher end of the rally targets.

Public sentiment has gone from the world ending in late March to bullish extremes that exceed the February all-time highs.  As I noted in March, the rally would wipe away all fears and it has.  Even Millennials have been turned on to day trading.  Gamblers with no sports to bet on but horse racing have also turned to day trading.  Robinhood is trending as they say nowadays.  Heck, even yours truly opened a Robinhood account to buy bitcoin with.  In a matter of minutes I owned some bitcoin.  Amazing how easy it is nowadays to open an account an invest.  Er, gamble.

I am glad I am on the sidelines still.  Corporate earnings will continue to decline the rest of this year.  Economic recovery will be in the shape of a Verizon swoosh that will take 2-3 years to see us get back to within say 20% of the prior peak.  But, with QE Infinity, asset prices might continue higher.

In the major 1973-1974 Bear Market, stocks dropped 45% while corporate earnings went up.  Regardless of what the Fake News Media tells the masses, there is no relationship between stock prices and underlying corporate earnings.  So, there is a chance this time around while earnings fall, stock prices may continue higher.  We shall see.  I am content holding my dividend stocks that are yielding 5%-8%.  If the prices go up, great.

As for real estate, it will be in to next year before we have an ample number of transactions to analyze.  Price discovery was made in April.  The market is just waiting for sellers to face reality and buyers to realize they won’t be getting major steals.  There is already some evidence that the price declines have begun to shrink.  As we move along the Verizon swoosh, we get closer and closer to recovery and thus prices slowly rise.

Also, there is talk that investors seeking any kind of yield in a zero percent interest rate environment will see that real estate cap rates of 4% and 5% and 6% and higher are exceptional.  There is literally TRILLIONS of dollars on the sideline waiting to be invested.  If some of it pours into real estate, cap rates will decline and prices increase.

The last 7 months of this year will be interesting to watch.

One last thought is in regard to what the stock market is forecasting.  As it projects out 6 months into the future, what has it told us.  First, something MAJOR is to occur around September.  What will that be is the question we should be focused on.  Possibilities I can think of…..the USA and IRAN get into a military conflict…..VP Biden drops out of the race due to a scandal or there being a true mental health issue (I am not saying there is one…..brainstorming things that would be a major shock is all)….or Trump dropping out for any reason (health or political).  We shall see what happens at the end of the Summer.

Also, six months out puts us past the November Election and the market is apparently happy as can be with the result of that event.  A Trump victory is the most obvious explanation for the stock market rising over the past 2 months.  If Trump loses, the market appears to be saying the two houses of government will remain split between the parties and thus gridlock will remain.  The stock market does not seem to give any chance to the Dems sweeping everything.

As a reminder, the DOW figure to watch is 23,377.  A close above that on October 31st suggests Trump wins.  Below that, he loses.  In February, when we were above 29,000 this figure didn’t seem pertinent.  Then we got down to 18,100 or such and again this figure was out of range.  But, now it has been in play constantly.  We are 5 months away from decision time.  A LOT will happen in that time.

I will close with my newest pet peeve:)  I must have a million of them by now, lol.  I am so, so sick of companies airing commercials about how great they are for helping people out during this crisis.  People hate people that brag about themselves.  Companies need to STFU and just give back as they can and they will get recognition from those that receive their generosity and word-of-mouth will take care of the rest.  But, we’re Amazon and we are so great for giving this amount and we’re Apple and blah blah blah.  Save the money you spend on commercials patting yourselves on the back and spend it on the people and entities that need help.

On the subject of commercials.  Do people actually buy something because they see a commercial?  I have never done that.  Do people actually click ads that pop up on a website?  I have never done that!  In fact, I cannot remember ever seeing an ad on Amazon or Facebook or Youtube or Dropbox or anything.  I have used every website for free for 20+ years now and never once clicked an ad or really I cannot even recall seeing an ad.  I have always wondered how Facebook and Twitter and YouTube make money.  Oh well, label me clueless:)

ADD JUNE 4 – Oh gaws, does every company and organization need to put out a public memo saying they aren’t into racism.  Geez, I didn’t know that.  I was certain that Apple and others have in their Personnel Handbook that that are into being racist.  This news is truly shocking to me.  I am so glad they made this announcement.  Time to go to the porcelain altar.  What a bunch of loser lemmings.

Oh, one other item.  Please do not listen to the Fake News Media and politicians that will be saying this Fall and Winter that the increase in COVID-19 cases is because we opened too early.  When you hear such, just say BS!  Those increases will surely happen.  Our re-opening (I am so happy to be in South Carolina – we were last to close and first to open….you don’t mess with our liberties in the South!) is well planned and needed and will not be the cause of the second wave …or possibly a third wave next Spring.  But, I guarantee the Fake News Media and let’s just say it out loud, the Dems, will blame any increases on reopening too early.  Of course, they won’t be talking about the majority of cases now and then being in their jurisdictions.

I would place a bet that in 5 or 10 years there will be evidence that more people will have died from the lockdown than from the virus itself.  The damage to the income and wealth generation of Gen Y will far exceed what the virus cost us.  Poor Millennials/Gen Y, they just weren’t meant to have a good existence on this rock.  But, when you are the first years of The Dark Ages II, you know you will have a brutal time of it.  But, not near as bad as generations 100 and 200 years from now.

I will talk about real estate and stocks down the road as things perk up.  We are just past the period of chaos.  Now we live out the long, slow recovery.  Which can still have some downside here and there in various sectors and markets.  Not everyone is going to be seeing improvement.

Thanks again to everyone that is sharing information with me.  I really appreciate it.  It has been very beneficial over the past 3 months for sure.

Please stay safe.  Over 330 million Americans have NOT got COVID-19!  Quoting the title of one of my favorite rock songs by Halestorm, Here’s To Us!

The Mann

STOCK MARKET UPDATE

MAY 10 – Hopefully everyone had a great Mother’s Day and is staying safe and well.

It’s been awhile since I talked about the stock market.  For over a month now the DOW has been in about a 2000 point range.  Quite a change from days in March where it was up or down 2000 points.  All of this back and forth and the market still hasn’t been able to get up to the 25,100 target.

As I mentioned the last time I talked about stocks, we are essentially in a stalemate.  The market should be declining to the 13,000-15,000 range.  However, the Fed is pumping trillions into the system and this is offsetting the selling.  The experts I listen to are taking the stance I am taking – stand aside and wait for a break in one direction or another to occur.

If you have had read my blog and white papers over the past decade, you know I harp on price and value being two very different things.  In real estate, prices rarely reflect the current value of the underlying asset.  Albeit market participants and appraisers believe sale prices are a reflection of market value.  They aren’t.

I bring this up because we may be encountering a historical disconnect between the value of companies and the price of their stock.  A company that was worth $100 a share before the virus hit might now be worth $80 (value is extremely slow to change for large corporations, so a 20% decline is beyond extreme).  However, if the trillions being pumped into the system goes into the stock market in some amount, then that stock that may have went from a high of $150 down to $75 in March and may now be $125.  And might go even higher.

Money is pouring in regardless of what the underlying asset is worth.  Re-inflating prices is what the Fed did starting 12 years ago and it worked for most asset classes.  They are doing all they can to make this happen again.  One day the house of cards will crumble and it won’t be pretty.  They might be able to avoid the end game this time, but I don’t think they will the next time things fall apart.

Right now the World’s Largest Casino (stocks, bonds, currencies) is open and gamblers are taking their position on how things will play out over the next 6-24 months.  But, these are simply gamblers.  True investors are still uncertain of the future and are standing aside.  There are no new mergers.  No new commercial real estate transactions.  When Sam Zell says he is still uncertain of how this will play out and is doing nothing, that speaks volumes.

As they say, better safe than sorry.  Capital preservation is key.  Don’t jump into the game too early.  Be patient.  It is ok to miss the exact bottom and wait for the new trend to start.

As a side note, remember that this is not a liquidity crisis.  That has been solved by Central Banks worldwide.  This is a SOLVENCY issue.  Companies will go bankrupt over the remainder of the year because they have too much debt.  It is that simple.  This will also apply to individuals and real estate owners.  Too much debt and you are likely to go under.  As they say, cash is king.  It will be once again during this downturn.

And a side note to the side note….The bond market is pricing in a 28% chance of the Fed Fund Rate going negative!  Some indicators suggest a drop to -2.0%!!!  Everyone says negative interest rates are not coming to America.  Even Fed presidents say that.  The only problem is the Fed FOLLOWS the bond market.  The bond market will dictate whether America goes to negative interest rates.  Right now it is just starting to head in that direction.  There will be more to discuss as this unfolds going forward.

Unemployment came in at 14.7% albeit the U-6 (whatever that is exactly) suggests we will see 23%+ next month.  The analyst I mentioned that forecast 16.5% was a bit high.  For historical perspective, we went from unemployment rates at 50 year lows to 90 year highs in a month or two.  Just insane, eh.

It’s  a big week for Bitcoin as the 4-year ‘halving’ occurs.  Since I suggested to my friends a month ago to buy some it has gone up 50%.  However, the expectation is still a 10x move from here by the end of 2021.  It seems like everyone is aware of the halving and past events and have been buying in advance.  Since past history has shown a 10% to 30% decline in price right after the halving, that would surely shock the newbies to Bitcoin.  The public usually gets on board when it is too late and then dumps when things turn against them.  I will be watching for some kind of correction between now and the end of June.  If it occurs, I will hop on board and hope the 10x unfolds as predicted.

Brent Crude is back over $30 a barrel.  Many oil stocks, e.g. Exxon, are up over 50% from their lows.  The damage will last at least another year or two.  But, oil and gas are not going away regardless of what the tree huggers wish and say.  The more electric vehicles they make the more fossil fuel using power plants get built.  Plus, 95%+ of vehicles will run on gas for many decades into the future.  It is unlikely Millennials will live to see a serious decline in the use of oil and natural gas.  There simply are no viable alternatives.

The Fake News Media likes to make the masses think oil and gas are on their way out.  They do the same with meat.  They even talked people in to creating fake meat.  Fake meat means it is NOT meat!  Fake meat is an oxymoron!  But, more importantly, projections call for meat consumption to be 70 percent higher in 2050 than it was in 2010.  PETA won’t tell you that though:)

I only bring the above items up because it all goes back to my constant reminder – EDUCATE YOURSELF!  I think we can switch up an old joke – How can you tell if a broadcaster is lying – s/he is moving his/her lips:)

Educate yourself and then make your own decision.  Think for yourself.  You will be much better off in life.

Stay safe.

The Mann