All posts by admin

COVID – VACCINE INFO

OCTOBER 21, 2020 – I thought everyone would find the following information of interest.  It is from Mike Taylor in an interview with HedgeEye:

“First on COVID. Right now we have about 60,000 cases rolling in per day. That’s a lot better than I thought. The states have done an incredible job with the lockdown. Last time we talked, I thought we were going to hit a new high in COVID infection rates and blow through 100,000 per day. And we didn’t. The states really got onto their job.

I generally view government officials as feckless twits. They actually took action. I really didn’t think they had it in them. That bought us some time.

In the next two weeks, we are going to see the first vaccine trial readout. The first one is from Pfizer and BioNTech. They’re working together. I think there’s an 80% chance that it’s going to be positive and we’re going to have the first vaccine.

We have five vaccines that are going to readout between now and January. That’s Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), AstraZeneca (AZN) and Johnny John, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

I think Astra and Johnny John have troubled vaccines. They based them upon a vector called the adenovirus. That’s something that I worked a lot with 20 years ago. The human body doesn’t like it very much. The other ones are using an mRNA vector but they’re all using the same thing. They’re making proteins along the spiked protein on the CCP virus, that’s Chinese Communist Party-19 virus.

They are all likely going to work. They’re all very classical. There’s an antigen. Your body is attacking that antigen and making you immune from that antigen when the virus comes into your body. So you’ll likely have memory T cells. All the classical vaccination events.

There’s probably an 80% chance this reads out positive in the next two weeks. Three weeks after that, we likely have a read-out form Moderna and that will likely be positive too. The side effects on these vaccines are pretty nominal, mostly around injection site reactions and fever in about 20-30% of vaccinations.

I think the vaccinations are going to be very successful. And that’s actually going to change everything very quickly. We’ll be looking things getting back to much more normal here in the U.S. about a year after that. But as you know stocks will start to react immediately.”

==================================================

As I am always having thoughts about something, I am thinking about posting one at the end of each post.  I shall see.

For anyone who might know Taylor Swift, please tell her that she will never know what it is like to be The Man.  She will never be The Man.  So, she can stop wondering what it would be like:)  I will never understand why someone worth well into the 9 figure range would have such pitiful jealousy about something she cannot be.  Oh well.  One thing is for sure…she will never, ever, ever, ever (heh heh) be The Mann! lol

Stay well and safe.

The Mann

GEORGIA CLARIFIES LAW ON EVALUATIONS

SEPTEMBER 26, 2020 – The following is from the Appraisal Institute’s Washington Report:

The Georgia Real Estate Commission & Appraisers Board on July 30 adopted a rule change that “eliminates language that has caused confusion in the industry concerning when Georgia appraisers can conduct evaluations.” The change addresses the reporting format for evaluations that are prepared by appraisers for financial institutions that are not regulated by a federal financial institution’s regulatory agency.
The previous rule stated that evaluations are allowed to be “prepared in any reporting format, such as, but not limited to, a self-contained appraisal report, a summary appraisal report and a restricted use appraisal report if the reporting format meets the requirements of the nonfederal financial institution.”
The updated rule, which took effect Aug. 19, removes specific references to the transactions for which an appraiser may provide an evaluation, stating instead that appraisers can provide evaluations “for any transaction that qualifies to be performed as an evaluation under the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines.”
The rule also eliminates enumeration of an evaluation’s required content in favor of language that states, “at a minimum, the development and content of an Evaluation Appraisal shall comply with the guidelines set forth in the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines.”

THE APPRAISAL OF REAL ESTATE – 15TH EDITION

SEPTEMBER 26, 2020 – The Appraisal Institute has published the latest edition of the industry’s bible.  I will let them describe noteworthy items in the new edition.  See below.  You can purchase it at their website.

“The Appraisal of Real Estate,” 15th edition, is a book that fits current times. It reflects a renewed commitment to the essential principles of appraisal and the sound application of recognized valuation methodology. In addition to updated information on changes in real estate markets and valuation standards, longtime readers of “The Appraisal of Real Estate” will notice these significant changes in this edition:

  • New chapters focused on applications of market analysis and highest and best use analysis;
  • Additional emphasis on identifying the property rights to be appraised in an appraisal assignment; and
  • Deeper discussion of accepted techniques for allocating value among real estate, personal property and non-realty items.

In this book, readers will notice the expanded discussion of market analysis and highest and best use, with new chapters clarifying these important concepts and demonstrating procedures for their application. Readers will also notice the relationship between market analysis and highest and best use is made explicit and described in a step-by-step analytic procedure. Lastly, the major development in this new edition is the emphasis on the necessity of definitively describing the property rights to be appraised in an appraisal assignment to ensure that all the necessary steps are taken to produce a credible value conclusion.

Order your copy today!

NATIONAL SUICIDE PREVENTION MONTH

September is National Suicide Prevention Month.  Albeit, we should all do all we can to help people we are concerned about throughout the year.  Every day.   Never stop.  Never give up.

This one hits home for me.  Next month on my birthday October 15th it will be the 30th anniversary of my dad committing suicide.  He obviously chose my birthday so I would always remember it.  As if I wouldn’t remember any other date he would have done it on!

I understand the genetics of Depression and, as expected, I couldn’t avoid the power of the genes.  It’s about 16 years now that the daily fight has gone on.  At least it is still going on, eh:)

If you or anyone you know suffer from Depression, or any other Mental Illness, (say it out loud over and over until you get used to saying it….just like saying cancer or diabetes….it’s just a disease like any other….it is not something to be ignored and swept under the rug as we have done forever), please call 1-800-273-8255, seek professional help, and keep talking.

Promote National Suicide Prevention Month

You, or the person you know, are here to make a difference in the life of one or more people.  You need to stay here.  You will make a difference!

Godspeed to all.

As a reminder, please go to YouTube and listen to Morgan Wade’s The Night.  I listen to it most every day.  Great lyrics.

The Mann

 

ELECTION, GOLD, & MANN’S EXPERIMENT

AUGUST 12, 2020 – For those who have read my newsletters or blogs or whatever over the years, you may recall me saying that Gold puts in a top when it starts going up and down $50 or $75 or more a day.  Commodity tops are like stock market bottoms – spikes.  Gold was down $200 yesterday and has rebounded $70 today.  Silver dropped 20% in a day.  These are indications a top is occurring.  The markets always like to surprise us.  But, over the past 50 years, this has been the pattern for Gold.

Recent polls show Biden ahead by about 4 to 6 points in the battleground states.  We can assume 1 to maybe 2 points are overstated because of the significant number of conservatives that refuse to participate in these polls (e.g. moi).  This advantage can go away in a few days.  In 2016, Trump basically pulled it out in the last 3 or 4 days as voters faced the reality of voting.  And it is apparent the October ‘Surprise’ will be approval of a vaccine.  I hope no one is surprised when that announcement occurs!  It is already a known fact as the 30,000 volunteers in Savannah got their shots in July and October is when the results come in.  All of the above aside, right now Biden is the clear favorite to win per the polls.  Also, these polls do not reflect the results of the DNC telling Sleepy Joe yesterday that he has chosen Kamala Harris to be his VP.  I am not sure that will have much affect as it has been known for a few weeks she was one of the two finalists and her being in California is overkill as Biden will win that state by about 30 points.

I see that over 80,000 businesses have closed for good.  This will increase significantly as we go through the remainder of the year in an essential shutdown of our economy.  This is a significant cleansing of businesses that were not adequately capitalized.  I would hope Americans would learn two lessons from this crisis, but i doubt they will:

  1.  Never, ever, ever go into debt.  I realized early in my career that income producing real estate that had no mortgage could survive most downturns.  It was the debt that cost property owners to lose their investments.  The same goes for people.  Almost anyone can get by just paying their rent, utilities, cell phone bill, etc.  My step-daughter figured that out years ago.  She just sold her farm and bought a house nearby for all cash.  If she loses her job, she can get by working a minimum wage job.  I am so proud of her accomplishing this during a pandemic of all things.  At least one person listened to me lol
  2.  This isn’t my advice.  We all have been told to have 3-6 months of expenses in savings.  Most of the 80,000 businesses that have closed would likely still be surviving if they had followed this advice.  Granted this crisis will go past 6 months for certain industries, so even this advice would not have helped everyone.  But, it would not have hurt anyone!  And, obviously, John Q. Public would always be in much better shape if they had 6 months of expenses in the bank.

Sadly, people and companies will not follow the above.  For one, it is very difficult in an ever slowing world economy.  Also, our economy is not designed for long-term survival….just for short-term excess profits.  A hundred years from now people will be studying how the excesses of the past 100 years occurred and will swear to not repeat our mistakes.  It will probably work until one century the third peak generation of all time will be doing exactly what we have done (The Roman Empire and Baby Boomers are the two all-time peaks if you were wondering).

Re my life experiment….a week ago I eliminated all social media from my life.  I deleted all news apps from my phone and laptop and no longer watch or read any news.  My family will tell me a news item now and then:(  So far it is amazing.  I pick up my cell phone and check email and then I look it and have nothing more to need it for…except to check the weather.  I used to spend hours on the thing…now I barely touch it.  It is so refreshing to not think about anything controversial.  After 55 years of fighting, this brain is ready to rest:)  I know how I will vote the rest of my life.  So, it dawned on me I don’t need to debate issues (fruitless nowadays anyway) and I don’t need to know what is going on outside my own bubble.  I will keep up with real estate and markets.  I have always made my decisions based on data and not news anyway.  Day 7 and counting….I might post down the road how this is working out.

A total side note….if you like country music, go to YouTube and check out Morgan Wade.  She hasn’t made it big, yet.  I saw her in concert before The ‘Vid shut things down.  She is all I listen to now.  ‘The Night’ is her signature song.  For those who can relate to the subject of the song, it is a strong message.  Maybe one decade the world will know how to better help those with this illness.  But, it won’t occur in time in my lifetime.

Everyone take care….please don’t send me news stories lol

Godspeed

The Mann

WELCOME SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EVALUATION WORLD

JUNE 29, 2020 – South Dakota has become the 11th state to allow licensed/certified appraisers to perform non-USPAP Evaluations.  We have 39 more to go:)  When we get back to in-person classes, if you are in a state that allows non-USPAP Evaluations, I have a 7-hour seminar on Evaluations and Validations that I will gladly come and teach.  I don’t teach over the web.  I can only share my 28 years of experience with Evaluations in person.  The Appraisal institute’s news item on this follows:

South Dakota Passes Legislation Allowing Appraisers to Perform Evaluations

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on March 4 signed HB 1127, legislation that allows appraisers to provide real property evaluations to federally regulated financial institutions. When the law takes effect July 1, the state will join at least 10 others that allow appraisers to provide evaluation services. Several other states are considering similar laws.
Evaluations provided by appraisers must conform to Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines. South Dakota’s secretary of the Department of Labor and Regulation will be authorized to promulgate rules relating to “exemptions and standards allowing appraisers to perform an evaluation for a federally insured depository institution.”
==========================================
Everyone stay safe.
The Mann

SOME MORE REAL ESTATE PRICE DISCOVERY INFO

MAY 31, 2020 – The following information comes from an article by NREI:

Some investors are looking to the Green Street CPPI for insights on pricing shifts. Green Street Advisors’ methodology is an appraisal-based index (versus closed sale transactions) that also is heavily weighted on institutional quality properties. Its CPPI for April reports a -9.4 percent decline across all property types, 133.5 down to 120.9. (100 on its index is equal to all property values in mid 2007.)

The biggest declines came on malls and strip retail, at -20 percent and -15 percent, respectively. Those sectors that held up better amid building COVID pressures were industrial, self-storage and healthcare with more modest declines of -5 percent. Green Street also acknowledges that exact numbers of value declines are “debatable” and difficult to calculate in a climate where pending deals have stalled or gone off the tracks all together.

 

LAST UPDATE ON REAL ESTATE AND STOCK MARKETS FOR AWHILE

MAY 29, 2020 – We have come a long way since the stock market bottomed on March 23rd and the Fed released an infinite amount of liquidity.  For 6+ weeks, the stock market traded in a narrow 10% range.  Then this week it finally broke above 25,000 on the DOW and has achieved the higher end of the rally targets.

Public sentiment has gone from the world ending in late March to bullish extremes that exceed the February all-time highs.  As I noted in March, the rally would wipe away all fears and it has.  Even Millennials have been turned on to day trading.  Gamblers with no sports to bet on but horse racing have also turned to day trading.  Robinhood is trending as they say nowadays.  Heck, even yours truly opened a Robinhood account to buy bitcoin with.  In a matter of minutes I owned some bitcoin.  Amazing how easy it is nowadays to open an account an invest.  Er, gamble.

I am glad I am on the sidelines still.  Corporate earnings will continue to decline the rest of this year.  Economic recovery will be in the shape of a Verizon swoosh that will take 2-3 years to see us get back to within say 20% of the prior peak.  But, with QE Infinity, asset prices might continue higher.

In the major 1973-1974 Bear Market, stocks dropped 45% while corporate earnings went up.  Regardless of what the Fake News Media tells the masses, there is no relationship between stock prices and underlying corporate earnings.  So, there is a chance this time around while earnings fall, stock prices may continue higher.  We shall see.  I am content holding my dividend stocks that are yielding 5%-8%.  If the prices go up, great.

As for real estate, it will be in to next year before we have an ample number of transactions to analyze.  Price discovery was made in April.  The market is just waiting for sellers to face reality and buyers to realize they won’t be getting major steals.  There is already some evidence that the price declines have begun to shrink.  As we move along the Verizon swoosh, we get closer and closer to recovery and thus prices slowly rise.

Also, there is talk that investors seeking any kind of yield in a zero percent interest rate environment will see that real estate cap rates of 4% and 5% and 6% and higher are exceptional.  There is literally TRILLIONS of dollars on the sideline waiting to be invested.  If some of it pours into real estate, cap rates will decline and prices increase.

The last 7 months of this year will be interesting to watch.

One last thought is in regard to what the stock market is forecasting.  As it projects out 6 months into the future, what has it told us.  First, something MAJOR is to occur around September.  What will that be is the question we should be focused on.  Possibilities I can think of…..the USA and IRAN get into a military conflict…..VP Biden drops out of the race due to a scandal or there being a true mental health issue (I am not saying there is one…..brainstorming things that would be a major shock is all)….or Trump dropping out for any reason (health or political).  We shall see what happens at the end of the Summer.

Also, six months out puts us past the November Election and the market is apparently happy as can be with the result of that event.  A Trump victory is the most obvious explanation for the stock market rising over the past 2 months.  If Trump loses, the market appears to be saying the two houses of government will remain split between the parties and thus gridlock will remain.  The stock market does not seem to give any chance to the Dems sweeping everything.

As a reminder, the DOW figure to watch is 23,377.  A close above that on October 31st suggests Trump wins.  Below that, he loses.  In February, when we were above 29,000 this figure didn’t seem pertinent.  Then we got down to 18,100 or such and again this figure was out of range.  But, now it has been in play constantly.  We are 5 months away from decision time.  A LOT will happen in that time.

I will close with my newest pet peeve:)  I must have a million of them by now, lol.  I am so, so sick of companies airing commercials about how great they are for helping people out during this crisis.  People hate people that brag about themselves.  Companies need to STFU and just give back as they can and they will get recognition from those that receive their generosity and word-of-mouth will take care of the rest.  But, we’re Amazon and we are so great for giving this amount and we’re Apple and blah blah blah.  Save the money you spend on commercials patting yourselves on the back and spend it on the people and entities that need help.

On the subject of commercials.  Do people actually buy something because they see a commercial?  I have never done that.  Do people actually click ads that pop up on a website?  I have never done that!  In fact, I cannot remember ever seeing an ad on Amazon or Facebook or Youtube or Dropbox or anything.  I have used every website for free for 20+ years now and never once clicked an ad or really I cannot even recall seeing an ad.  I have always wondered how Facebook and Twitter and YouTube make money.  Oh well, label me clueless:)

ADD JUNE 4 – Oh gaws, does every company and organization need to put out a public memo saying they aren’t into racism.  Geez, I didn’t know that.  I was certain that Apple and others have in their Personnel Handbook that that are into being racist.  This news is truly shocking to me.  I am so glad they made this announcement.  Time to go to the porcelain altar.  What a bunch of loser lemmings.

Oh, one other item.  Please do not listen to the Fake News Media and politicians that will be saying this Fall and Winter that the increase in COVID-19 cases is because we opened too early.  When you hear such, just say BS!  Those increases will surely happen.  Our re-opening (I am so happy to be in South Carolina – we were last to close and first to open….you don’t mess with our liberties in the South!) is well planned and needed and will not be the cause of the second wave …or possibly a third wave next Spring.  But, I guarantee the Fake News Media and let’s just say it out loud, the Dems, will blame any increases on reopening too early.  Of course, they won’t be talking about the majority of cases now and then being in their jurisdictions.

I would place a bet that in 5 or 10 years there will be evidence that more people will have died from the lockdown than from the virus itself.  The damage to the income and wealth generation of Gen Y will far exceed what the virus cost us.  Poor Millennials/Gen Y, they just weren’t meant to have a good existence on this rock.  But, when you are the first years of The Dark Ages II, you know you will have a brutal time of it.  But, not near as bad as generations 100 and 200 years from now.

I will talk about real estate and stocks down the road as things perk up.  We are just past the period of chaos.  Now we live out the long, slow recovery.  Which can still have some downside here and there in various sectors and markets.  Not everyone is going to be seeing improvement.

Thanks again to everyone that is sharing information with me.  I really appreciate it.  It has been very beneficial over the past 3 months for sure.

Please stay safe.  Over 330 million Americans have NOT got COVID-19!  Quoting the title of one of my favorite rock songs by Halestorm, Here’s To Us!

The Mann

VALIDATIONS

MAY 29, 2020 – Validations are the little known and little used product that get overlooked in the world of Appraisals and Evaluations.  The December 2010 Interagency Appraisals and Evaluations Guidelines (IAEG) document has the following section that addresses Validations:

XIV. Validity of Appraisals and Evaluations
The Agencies allow an institution to use an existing appraisal or evaluation to support a subsequent transaction in certain circumstances. Therefore, an institution should establish criteria for assessing whether an existing appraisal or evaluation continues to reflect the market value of the property (that is, remains valid). Such criteria will vary depending upon the condition of the property and the marketplace, and the nature of the transaction. The documentation in the credit file should provide the facts and analysis to support the institution’s conclusion that the existing appraisal or evaluation may be used in the subsequent transaction. A new appraisal or evaluation is necessary if the originally reported market value has changed due to factors such as:
 Passage of time.
 Volatility of the local market.
 Changes in terms and availability of financing.
 Natural disasters.
 Limited or over supply of competing properties.
 Improvements to the subject property or competing properties.
 Lack of maintenance of the subject or competing properties.
 Changes in underlying economic and market assumptions, such as capitalization rates and lease terms.
 Changes in zoning, building materials, or technology.
 Environmental contamination.

Validations answer one simple question – is the value of the real estate collateral equal to or greater than the value in a prior Appraisal or Evaluation?  If so, then that value can be brought up to today.  If not, then a new Appraisal or Evaluation is needed.

Validations are useful in level to rising markets.  They are not very useful in the current market conditions.

However, not all property types have experienced a value decline this year.  In general, industrial properties and national tenant leased properties where the tenant has a bond rating A and above, are still candidates for Validations.  Apartments might be depending on the age of the prior Appraisal or Evaluation and the property location.

I have updated the Validation Report that I originally developed in 1994.  This report is intended to be used by internal bank employees.  It is not for use by fee appraisers, as it does not comply with USPAP.  If you are a bank employee and want a copy of my report template, just email me at GeorgeRMann@Aol.Com.  I will send it to you for free:)

It took me 25 years to finally get Evaluations to be mainstream.  Validations are next.  They are under utilized.  Albeit, today’s market is not ideal for them.  But, we will get back to market conditions where they are useful again.  My plan is to design a Restricted Appraisal Report (RAR) specific to the Validations need for fee appraisers to use.  But, at this time, this is not needed for the most part.

Again, bank staff please contact me if you want a copy of my template.

Everyone stay safe.

The Mann

STOCK MARKET UPDATE

MAY 10 – Hopefully everyone had a great Mother’s Day and is staying safe and well.

It’s been awhile since I talked about the stock market.  For over a month now the DOW has been in about a 2000 point range.  Quite a change from days in March where it was up or down 2000 points.  All of this back and forth and the market still hasn’t been able to get up to the 25,100 target.

As I mentioned the last time I talked about stocks, we are essentially in a stalemate.  The market should be declining to the 13,000-15,000 range.  However, the Fed is pumping trillions into the system and this is offsetting the selling.  The experts I listen to are taking the stance I am taking – stand aside and wait for a break in one direction or another to occur.

If you have had read my blog and white papers over the past decade, you know I harp on price and value being two very different things.  In real estate, prices rarely reflect the current value of the underlying asset.  Albeit market participants and appraisers believe sale prices are a reflection of market value.  They aren’t.

I bring this up because we may be encountering a historical disconnect between the value of companies and the price of their stock.  A company that was worth $100 a share before the virus hit might now be worth $80 (value is extremely slow to change for large corporations, so a 20% decline is beyond extreme).  However, if the trillions being pumped into the system goes into the stock market in some amount, then that stock that may have went from a high of $150 down to $75 in March and may now be $125.  And might go even higher.

Money is pouring in regardless of what the underlying asset is worth.  Re-inflating prices is what the Fed did starting 12 years ago and it worked for most asset classes.  They are doing all they can to make this happen again.  One day the house of cards will crumble and it won’t be pretty.  They might be able to avoid the end game this time, but I don’t think they will the next time things fall apart.

Right now the World’s Largest Casino (stocks, bonds, currencies) is open and gamblers are taking their position on how things will play out over the next 6-24 months.  But, these are simply gamblers.  True investors are still uncertain of the future and are standing aside.  There are no new mergers.  No new commercial real estate transactions.  When Sam Zell says he is still uncertain of how this will play out and is doing nothing, that speaks volumes.

As they say, better safe than sorry.  Capital preservation is key.  Don’t jump into the game too early.  Be patient.  It is ok to miss the exact bottom and wait for the new trend to start.

As a side note, remember that this is not a liquidity crisis.  That has been solved by Central Banks worldwide.  This is a SOLVENCY issue.  Companies will go bankrupt over the remainder of the year because they have too much debt.  It is that simple.  This will also apply to individuals and real estate owners.  Too much debt and you are likely to go under.  As they say, cash is king.  It will be once again during this downturn.

And a side note to the side note….The bond market is pricing in a 28% chance of the Fed Fund Rate going negative!  Some indicators suggest a drop to -2.0%!!!  Everyone says negative interest rates are not coming to America.  Even Fed presidents say that.  The only problem is the Fed FOLLOWS the bond market.  The bond market will dictate whether America goes to negative interest rates.  Right now it is just starting to head in that direction.  There will be more to discuss as this unfolds going forward.

Unemployment came in at 14.7% albeit the U-6 (whatever that is exactly) suggests we will see 23%+ next month.  The analyst I mentioned that forecast 16.5% was a bit high.  For historical perspective, we went from unemployment rates at 50 year lows to 90 year highs in a month or two.  Just insane, eh.

It’s  a big week for Bitcoin as the 4-year ‘halving’ occurs.  Since I suggested to my friends a month ago to buy some it has gone up 50%.  However, the expectation is still a 10x move from here by the end of 2021.  It seems like everyone is aware of the halving and past events and have been buying in advance.  Since past history has shown a 10% to 30% decline in price right after the halving, that would surely shock the newbies to Bitcoin.  The public usually gets on board when it is too late and then dumps when things turn against them.  I will be watching for some kind of correction between now and the end of June.  If it occurs, I will hop on board and hope the 10x unfolds as predicted.

Brent Crude is back over $30 a barrel.  Many oil stocks, e.g. Exxon, are up over 50% from their lows.  The damage will last at least another year or two.  But, oil and gas are not going away regardless of what the tree huggers wish and say.  The more electric vehicles they make the more fossil fuel using power plants get built.  Plus, 95%+ of vehicles will run on gas for many decades into the future.  It is unlikely Millennials will live to see a serious decline in the use of oil and natural gas.  There simply are no viable alternatives.

The Fake News Media likes to make the masses think oil and gas are on their way out.  They do the same with meat.  They even talked people in to creating fake meat.  Fake meat means it is NOT meat!  Fake meat is an oxymoron!  But, more importantly, projections call for meat consumption to be 70 percent higher in 2050 than it was in 2010.  PETA won’t tell you that though:)

I only bring the above items up because it all goes back to my constant reminder – EDUCATE YOURSELF!  I think we can switch up an old joke – How can you tell if a broadcaster is lying – s/he is moving his/her lips:)

Educate yourself and then make your own decision.  Think for yourself.  You will be much better off in life.

Stay safe.

The Mann